Kenny Beck's MLB BASEBLOGG

My Picks

2010-02-17T07:18:00.000-05:00

With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report to Spring Training at 2 o'clock eastern, I thought it was appropriate to make my picks for each of baseball's six divisions. That said, here we go:

AL East
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Tornoto Blue Jays

The Yankees are better than last year and aren't under the pressure of not having won a World Series in almost a decade. Tampa's pitching, both at the front end and in the bullpen, should be more stable this year and their lineup is very strong top to bottom. Boston's lineup isn't as scary as it's been in the past and there are lingering health questions surrounding many of their starters. The O's are finally headed in the right direction and after losing Burnett and Halladay in consecutive offseasons,Toronto is definitely in rebuilding mode.

AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians

New ballpark, healthy hitters, a healthy starting rotation, and the same-ol' bullpen should land the Twins right back in the hunt this October. Detroit's pitching is the best it's been in years but the lineup has some holes. The White Sox are one of the toughest teams to forecast. Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, Freddy Garcia, Alex Rois, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones...if you know what kind of years these guys are going to turn in, you're smarter than I am. That's why I put them third. Kansas City has some pitching and its lineup isn't as anonymous or anemic as it once was. And Cleveland is incredibly young and its pitching is below average at best.

AL West
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels

This is the toughest division to forecast because I think each team will finish near, if not above .500. Texas can hit and for the first time in a long time, I truly believe they're going to be able to pitch, too. That makes them the most well-rounded club. Seattle has the best 1-2 punch in baseball on the mound. It's just a question of if they have enough offense. Nobody realized how good Oakland's pitching staff was a year ago. Now all those rookies are a little better and they've added two former All-Stars to the rotation. If Sheets and Duchscherer can make 20-25 starts apiece, this team won't finish last. And LA? I'm just not a believer. The last few years, they've lost a lot more than they've gained. Since 2007, it's been bye-bye Teixeira, K-Rod, Vlad, Lackey, Figgins, Kelvim Escobar, Orlando Cabrera, and Garret Anderson among others. Relative to the rest of the division, this pitching staff isn't that good. Their lineup is old and has holes in it and even though I think Mike Scioscia is an excellent manager, I don't think this team gets back to the postseason. That could mean they finish second, third, or fourth.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
New York Mets

The Phillies are an easy pick. This remains the most danegrous lineup in the league, and they've added Roy Halladay to the mix. Their only potential downfall will be their closer. Watch out for the Marlins this year. The offense is going to be sneaky good with Han-Ram, Coghlan, Cantu and Uggla. If Sanchez and Maybin are for real, look out and if Ricky Nolasco's demons are truly in the rearview mirror, they're going to be very strong on the mound as well. Atlanta can pitch, but I don't see them scoring enough runs to be a 90-win team. They should have gotten more than they did in the Vazquez trade. Speaking of pitching, the Nats finally can! I love the Wang signing, Jason Marquis is an innings-eater, Strasburg will be useful eventually and this year they actually have a closer. Plus, they have a lineup that could really be a pain to face (Nyjer Morgan, Adam Kennedy, Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham). And then there's the poor Mets. They did nothing to bolster their pitching, Carlos Beltran is already banged up, I envision Jason Bay being a huge flop, and I'd be surprised if Jose Reyes gets 500 plate appearances.

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

By re-signing Matt Holliday, the Cards stay the team to beat especially with Wainwright and Carpenter anchoring the staff. Milwaukee has a good mix of youth and experience, plus the best righty/lefty power bat combo since Manny and Papi. The Cubs look like a weaker version of the team that didn't make the playoffs last year. The Reds offense is very thin, although I think they'll be able to pitch a little bit. Houston didn't really make any impact moves (Tejada left, Brett Myers joins the staff) but they did lose both of their closers (Valverde and Hawkins) and Pittsburgh has a lovely ballpark. If you haven't been there, I highly recommend you check it out.

NL West
LA Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks (Wild Card)
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres

With Manny for a full year, and Ethier and Kemp about to enter their most productive years, this team will have a dangerous offense. Clayton Kershaw is the key. If he becomes a true number one this year, the Dodgers could be the best team in the NL. If Brandon Webb is truly 100%, Arizona will have the best starting pitching in the league (including Haren and Edwin Jackson). With Justin Upton's continued development, the addition of Adam LaRoche and the return of Conor Jackson, I see them being a playoff team. Colorado lost Marquis but gets Jeff Francis back from injury so that's a wash, if not a slight improvement. With all their speed at the top and contact in the middle, they should score enough to be highly competitive. The Giants sure can pitch but offense is often a trouble spot. The additions of Huff and DeRosa should help. And San Diego seems a lock to finish last and a lock to trade Adrian Gonzalez before the deadline.

So to the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cards, Dodgers, and D'Backs...you're welcome for the massive jinx.

Top 10 Of 2010

2010-02-16T07:09:00.000-05:00

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, which means (I hope) the snow that's covering seemingly the entire nation will soon melt and the national pasttime will soon resume. So with that in mind and with Opening Day now a mere 47 days away, here are my top 10 storylines of 2010 in no particular order.

10. New York's Title Defense. Last year, they won the AL East by 8 games and won the World Series in 6 and that was with A-Rod on the shelf until early May. This year, Alex's hip (and ego) are 100%, Curtis Granderson, Javy Vazquez, and Nick Johnson are in while Johnny Damon, Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui are out. On paper, this team appears to be head-and-shoulders above the other 29. But rarely do they play the game on paper. The Yankees are built to win now and baseball hasn't had a back-to-back champ in 10 years (when yes, the Yankees did it).

9. Homerun Milestones. Speaking of A-Rod, he is now just 17 homeruns away from 600 for his career and there's a very good shot he'll get there before his 35th birthday on July 27th. His former teammate, Ken Griffey is 20 away from 650. New Minnesota Twin Jim Thome needs 36 (and probably a team that will sign him to another one-year-deal in 2011) to reach 600. If Carlos Delgado decides not to retire after all, he's 27 homeruns away from 500 and Albert Pujols, who just turned all of 30, is 34 bombs from 400.

8. Welcome Back! Former All-Stars Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Grady Sizemore, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Tim Hudson, Geovany Soto, and Delgado (again, if he plays) all missed significant time last season due to injury. Now, all of them are presumably healthy and all of them are key to their team's respective success, especially Reyes and Santana.

7.  Old Faces, New Places.  Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jason Bay, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, Billy Wagner, Vazquez, and Granderson were some of the big names to change teams this offseason. In doing so, many of them signed big, big contracts. Which ones will prove to worth it, and which ones won't?

6. Young Cy Young. Tim Lincecum doesn't turn 26 until the middle of June. Tim Lincecum hasn't thrown 600 career innings. But Tim Lincecum already has 40 career wins, 676 strikeouts and enters 2010 gunning for his 3rd straight Cy Young award. Only two pitchers in history have won three in a row, they're also the only two pitchers in history to win four in a row, and they're both future Hall of Famers- Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux.  "The Freak" has a chance to join awfully exclusive company at an awfully tender age but it won't be easy. New NL'er Halladay, along with usual suspects Santana, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and maybe even Clayton Kershaw should prove to be strong competitors too.

5. Young Guns. This time a year ago, just about every baseball "expert" had already given the AL ROY award to either Matt Wieters or David Price with Tommy Hanson and Cameron Maybin the favorites in the NL. How wrong they were. Oakland's Andrew Bailey enjoyed the lowest OPS-against in all of baseball en route to winning the award in the AL, while the scrappy Chris Coghlan hit .372 after the All-Star break to take home the NL honor for the Marlins. This time around, Atlanta's Jason Heyward is playing the role of Wieters while the Nats' Stephen Strasburg is playing the role of Price. Will they live up to the hype or disappoint, opening the door for another dark horse or two?

4.  Outdoor Baseball In Minnesota Again. After a 28-year run, the Twins are leaving the Metrodome and returning to their open-air roots. Target Field seats 40-thousand and unlike their previous digs, is not designed to be "hitter friendly." How will this impact Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau? How many games will be snowed out? How long will it take Francisco Liriano to get loose?

3.  The Other New York Team. The '09 Mets were riddled with injuries, had one of the highest payrolls in baseball, lost 92 games, and saw their team leader in homeruns smack just a dozen of them. The '10 Mets look to be without Carlos Beltran for an entended period of time out of the gate, have done next-to-nothing to bolster their pitching staff, and still have a really high payroll. To top it all off, the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins look to be just as tough, if not tougher, than they were a season ago. Last season was for eye-rolling. This season, it might be heads that are rolling at Citi Field.

2. There's Always Albert. He's won three of the last five NL MVPs including two straight. In 9 seasons, he's never finished with fewer than 33 doubles, 32 homeruns, 103 RBI, a .314 average, and 99 runs scored. At 1.0547, his career OPS is best among all active players and fourth best all-time (even higher than Bonds). And so far, he is presumed to be PED-free. Now in his thirties, he has nothing left to prove but plenty still to achieve. Will he win a Triple Crown? Last year he missed it by 6 RBI and 9 hits. As I mentioned above, he should reach 400 homeruns this year and if healthy, will get to 2,000 hits next year. At his current pace, he would get to 500 homeruns early in 2013 and 3,000 hits in late 2016. Aaron, Mays, and Murray and the only clean players with that on their resume. To sum up: one of the best players ever to swing a bat is in his prime right now. Enjoy him while you can.

1. Expect The Unexpected. Some of last year's biggest surprises included A-Rod's 'roids admission, Greinke's breakout year, Buehrle's perfect game, Manny's suspension, the return of the Rockies, MVP-Mauer, Mark Reynolds' power surge, Brandon Webb's lost season, and the Yankees (and A-Rod) living up to expectations and breaking their World Series drought. So what will come out of nowhere and dominate the headlines in 2010? Will the Rays make it back to the playoffs? How good are all the O's young players? With John Lackey, Vlad, and Figgins gone, is LA's dynasty over and the AL West perennially up for grabs? Can the Nats pitch yet? Who gets traded mid-year? Is Matt Kemp really one of the game's best young players? And might this be the final season for All-Stars Griffey, Thome, Pettitte, Pedro, Smoltz or even Chipper? We'll begin to get answers to these questions and more tomorrow afternoon!

You Know Your Favorite Team Is Doomed When...

2010-02-15T10:29:00.000-05:00

...this happens.

So much blame to go around it's hard to know where to start but Bergesen certainly deserves a sizeable chunk considering it's his arm and he has the right to say, "Hey guys, this isn't smart. I'm not in throwing shape."

The O's marketing department and/or whoever hired this production company also shouldn't escape unscathed. Are none of these people baseball fans? Do any of them realize that pitchers (especially prized 24-year-old prospects) are given incredibly detailed restrictions for when they can and cannot throw? Did it not occur to any of them that Brad was working up a sweat, huffing and puffing, and airing it out before Spring Training!?

This is also a major botch for the organization as a whole. Don't the promotional people have to talk to the baseball people when they want to use a player in a spot? Is it possible the baseball people (manager, pitching coach, strength and conditioning staff) were left completely out of the loop here? If that was the case and I'm Dave Trembley, I want somebody fired yesterday.

For O's fans, let's hope this injury is as minor as the team claims it is. And let's also hope their next team promo isn't a spot where Matt Wieters is asked to block home plate with Ray Lewis chugging full-steam towards his right knee.

The Rodney Dangerfield Of Baseball

2010-02-12T14:26:00.001-05:00

The sub-headline on this ESPN.com article pretty much sums up the lack of respect Frank Thomas received during his career and continues to receive now that he's retired. It reads simply, "Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer?" Not just grammatically incorrect, it's also a tremendous slight to a man who should be not just a Hall of Famer, but a slam-dunk-first-ballot Hall of Famer.

After failing to find headlines of "Tom Brady's Wife Hot?" "LeBron James Entertaining?" or "Tiger Woods Jokes...Too Soon?" anywhere else on ESPN.com, I figured I'd give my undivided attention to Thomas and his illustrious, if not unappreciated, career.

First off, his 521 career homeruns are tied for 18th all-time and considering six of the guys above him (Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro, and Manny) have been linked to PEDs, among clean players he's tied for 12th with current HOFers Willie McCovey and Ted Williams.

Secondly, his career OBP is an impressive .419. While that number is good for 21st all-time, only 9 of the players above him played after 1930 and one of them is Bonds. Among his semi-contemporaries, only Pujols and Helton have a higher career OBP. And while we're talking about modern day numbers, Thomas ranks 15th in career OPS (.974) and among presumed clean players, he moves up to 12th.

Next, and perhaps even more impressive, Thomas finished with almost 300 more career walks (1,667) than strikeouts (1,397). Of the presumed clean players who rank above him on the all-time homerun list, only Babe Ruth and Ted Williams had more "walks minus strikeouts." That's pretty good company.

As far as hardware goes, Thomas is one of just six in AL history to win back-to-back MVP awards and he finished top-5 in the voting another four times, one of which was in 2000 when he was runner-up to admitted cheat, Jason Giambi. He also took home four Silver Slugger awards, was a five-time All-Star, and a career .301 hitter in more than 10,000 plate appearances.

According to the Bill James developed "Hall of Fame Monitor," which measures how likely a player is to get into the Hall, Thomas receives a score of 194, higher than current HOFers Hank Greenberg, Rickey Henderson, Harmon Killebrew, Joe Morgan and Ernie Banks to name a few. A score of 130 is considered sure fire HOF material.

And while his career loses a fraction of notoriety because 57% of his plate appearances came as a DH, it doesn't take away from the fact that he was one of the most patient power hitters the game has ever seen.

Simply put- Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer? Yes, indeed.

Cabrera Treated, So What's Next?

2010-01-22T08:24:00.000-05:00

By now, you've probably heard that Miguel Cabrera (a) spent three months getting treatment for alcoholism this offseason, (b) plans to continue with his program in spring training and during the regular season and (c) says he hasn't had a drop of booze since a drunken scuffle with his wife right at the end of the season and right at the beginning of the Tigers' collapse last year.

First off- let me say it's admirable that he's recognized his problem, sought help for it, plans to stick with his treatment, and is brave enough to speak publicly about it. As an avid fantasy baseball player though, I wonder what impact this will have on his 2010 numbers.

For his six and a half year career, his average 162 game season looks like this: .311/33/117 with a .925 OPS. Those, my friends, put him on pace for first-ballot induction into the Hall of Fame, especially considering he doesn't turn 27 until mid-April. So he could easily string together another 8 or 9 seasons of at least that caliber before he hits his twilight years and that's with 1200+ hits, 200+ homeruns, and 750+ RBI already in the bag.

The one thing Cabrera has yet to do though, is put together a monster season. As good as he's been, he's never hit 40 homeruns, never driven in 130, never hit .340, never walked 100 times, and never finished with an OPS above 1.000 (although he's come awfully close). But just because he intends on being clean for all of 2010, I don't think we can assume this will be the year he does any, or all of those things.

First off, for all his apparent in-season drinking in the past, his health and playing time have never suffered. Since being called up, he has yet to play in fewer than 157 games and has always amassed at least 650 plate appearances. The drinking doesn't appear to have had an impact on his power, either. In each of his six full seasons, he has smacked 65, 78, 78, 74, 75, and 68 extra base hits and never slugged under .510.

Although I don't know him personally, my guess is that Cabrera is one of those immensely-gifted athletes who, unfair as it seems to the rest of us mortals, doesn't necessarily need to take care of himself to be excellent at his sport. Back when I played (p.s. I've done more than 300 posts to this blog and I believe this is the first time I've used that phrase) I wasn't that fortunate, so I didn't even try. And I'm not implying that Cabrera's decision will have no impact on his body or his life, because it will. I just think that people who are expecting to see Cabrera post career bests across the board because he's clean might end up disappointed. My guess is, this life change is for his long-term good, not short-term. Either way, good for him!

How The West Was Won? Not With Joel

2010-01-21T16:23:00.000-05:00

Maybe I'm overreacting here, but I don't think I am. Two years and $16 million dollars for Joel Pineiro? I know the Angels lost John Lackey to free agency, failed to trade for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, and whether they were interested or not, also watched serviceable free agent starters Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Brad Penny, Andy Pettitte, and Randy Wolf end up elsewhere, too. With Pineiro, I just think they might have hit the panic button and felt like "doing something" was better than doing nothing at all.

In more than a thousand American League innings spent mostly with Seattle (he made 31 relief appearances with Boston in '07) Pineiro owns a 4.50 career ERA and a record that's 3 games above .500. He's never been a big strikeout guy, either. His best season was 151 and that was in 211 2/3 IP back in 2003. Last year with St. Louis, he punched 105 in a career high 214 IP, and that was when he was facing pitchers! On the plus side, he was a control freak last year allowing a league-best 1.1 walks per 9 and that translated into an excellent 1.15 WHIP. But I don't see him repeating that, considering his career walks per 9 is more than twice what he posted a year ago (2.6).

Pineiro now joins an LA rotation that, even with him, just isn't that scary. Jered Weaver is very good but not a true number one. Ervin Santana has doubters after an injury-riddled '09. Scott Kazmir is predictably unpredictable. And at some point, Joe Saunders' luck has to run out. The last two seasons he has somehow managed to win 33 games despite logging just 35 quality starts in 62 tries. Seriously, check out his game log. It's baffling! He doesn't pitch deep into games, doesn't strike anybody out, is very hittable, prone to the big fly, and yet he keeps...on...winning!

Here's the reality for Angels fans. Unlike what they've grown accustomed to recently, this team is, by no means, the consensus AL West favorite entering 2010. As a matter of fact, there's an outside chance they could finish dead last. I already covered their pitching. And offensively, they've lost Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero while only bringing in Hideki Matsui, who turns 36 in June. Torii Hunter turns 35 this July. Bobby Abreu turns 36 in less than two months. And while youngsters Kendry Morales and Erick Aybar finally fulfilled their promise last year, Brandon Wood is not a lock to stick around all season at third. He's been a "can't miss" prospect for what feels like half a decade and in more than 230 plate appearances over three seasons, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is more than 10 to 1, and his career OBP is .222. Maybe he'll figure it out and hit .260 with 25 bombs, but I'd be surprised.

Elsewhere in the division, Texas finished 6 games above .500 and 10 back of LA and that's with Josh Hamilton playing in just 89 games and Chris Davis finishing with a putrid .284 OBP in 391 ABs. They've added Vladimir Guerrero. Rookie Elvis Andrus hit .280 after the All-Star break and finished with 33 steals. Julio Borbon swiped 19 bags in 157 ABs after being a summer call-up. Nelson Cruz had a break-out year with 33 homeruns in just 462 at bats and Ian Kinsler and Michael Young haven't gone anywhere. Add Rich Harden, the continued development of promising young arms Scott Feldman, Derek Holland, Brandon McCarthy, and Tommy Hunter plus a full year of Neftali Feliz, and closer insurance in Chris Ray, and "the team that could win if only they could pitch," suddenly can.

Seattle now has arguably the best one-two pitching punch in baseball with King Felix and Cliff Lee. And after the failed Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson experiments, they seem to be building a lineup to better-suit their big ballpark. Newbie Casey Kotchman makes sense at first base as does Chone Figgins at third. And if they can get Milton Bradley to play nice and stay healthy, he's a steal in left. Jose Lopez, Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ken Griffey all return as well. The M's finished four games above .500 last year and could win a bunch of games by scores of 4-3 or 3-1.

Even Oakland could give LA a scare. The A's hit the fewest homeruns and owned the lowest slugging percentage in the league in 2009. They also started a rookie pitcher in more than 70% of their games. And yet, they finished just 6 games below .500, were outscored by two runs all season, and finished tied for 3rd in the AL in ERA. They also have the reigning rookie of the year in closer Andrew Bailey who led baseball in OPS against in 2009 (.476). Newcomers Jake Fox and Kevin Kouzmanoff should provide a little more punch to their lineup along with the re-signed Jack Cust. Mark Ellis missed more than 50 games a year ago. And the newly-inked Justin Duchscherer should be physically and emotionally 100% after missing all of 2009 with arm trouble and clinical depression. Plus, big-time outfield prospect Michael Taylor (a more complete player than the prospect they traded to get him, Brett Wallace) is waiting for a call-up. I'm not saying the A's are a Wild Card dark horse but it would be foolish to write then off as cellar-dwellers for a second straight year.

The bottom line is this. Top to bottom, the American League West should be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball (once again) in 2010. Last year, it was the only division where every team won at least 75 games and between October and now, we've seen last year's runway winner get a little worse and the teams that finished behind them get a lot better. That, more than anything else, could explain the Pineiro signing.

A Big Unit, Yes...But The Best Unit Ever?

2010-01-08T10:34:00.000-05:00

With Hall of Fame voting on lots of baseball fans' minds right now and with Randy Johnson's retirement still semi-fresh as well, here's a question to ponder. Is the Big Unit the best pitcher in the history of the game?

Clearly 5 Cy Youngs, 4,875 strikeouts, 303 wins, 10 All-Star appearances, two no-hitters (one of which was a perfect game) and a World Series co-MVP help to put him on the short list. But that "short list" must also include names like Nolan Ryan, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, and depending on your opinion of him, Roger Clemens. So let's dig deeper.

Of the players I just named, only Nolan Ryan has more career strikeouts than Johnson and he has nearly a thousand more. But at the same time, Ryan also issued 2,795 walks giving him a career K:BB ratio of 2.04. Johnson's is a much more impressive 3.26. Also to the Big Unit's credit is his career mark of 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings- the best in baseball history. So the notion that Nolan Ryan was a "better" strikeout pitcher than Randy Johnson is somewhat misguided. The Express just managed to throw 1200 more innings. Other statistics of note when comparing the two: Ryan was the least hittable pitcher in big league history (6.6 H/9 compared to a still-respectable 7.3 for Johnson) but given his penchant for the free pass, Ryan's career WHIP is higher (1.25 versus 1.17). In other words, Ryan managed to be "effectively wild" for almost 54-hundred innings.

They didn't start giving out the Cy Young until 1956 and there wasn't an AL and NL winner until 1967, so you can't penalize...er...Cy Young, Christy Mathewson or Walter Johnson for their lack of hardware. We can at least try to compare their other numbers though, and I'll start with Young. He and Johnson both played for 22 years but during those 22 years, Young made 813 starts to Johnson's 603, meaning Young averaged 9.5 more starts a season. Based on that, it's no wonder he has Randy by more than 200 wins and everybody else not named Walter Johnson by at least 100. It was a different game in the late 19th and early 20th century, though. I can pretty much guarantee you'll never see a pitcher repeat Young's 1892 season with Cleveland: 36 wins, 1.93 ERA, 453 IP. But if we look at their entire careers and break it down to "average box score per appearance" here's what we get:

Young: 8.1 IP, 2.4 ER, 7.8 H, 1.3 BB, 3.1 K
Johnson: 6.7 IP, 2.5 ER, 5.4 H, 2.4 BB, 7.9 K

Young got about 4 more outs per appearance, but he also allowed more baserunners and did not feature the strikeout as a weapon nearly as much as Johnson did. So in today's game, you could argue that the strikeout pitcher might fare better than the pitch-deep-into-games-contact guy. And let's not forget that Johnson spent his career facing the likes of Bonds, Pujols, Sosa, Canseco, McGwire, Frank Thomas, Belle, Bagwell, Helton, Piazza, Manny, Papi and others, whereas during Cy Young's monster 1892 season, Bug Holliday led baseball with 13 homeruns and Dan Brothers was batting champ at .335. In 1908, when Young posted a career-best 1.26 ERA over 299 IP, Tim Jordan led baseball with 12 homeruns and Honus Wagner was probably one of the game's biggest offensive threats. That year, H-Wag (they probably called him that back then) went .354/10/109 with 53 steals.

My argument isn't a whole lot different when it comes to Mathewson and Walter Johnson. For comparison, here are their average pitching lines next to Randy's.

Mathewson: 7.5 IP, 1.8 ER, 6.6 H, 1.3 BB, 3.9 K
Big Train: 7.4 IP, 1.8 ER, 6.1 H, 1.7 BB, 4.4 K
Big Unit: 6.7 IP, 2.5 ER, 5.4 H, 2.4 BB, 7.9 K

Matthewson won 30 a total of four times and had five seasons of at least 25 wins and an ERA under 2.00 (as low as 1.14 in 1909). But in 1909, Ty Cobb won the Triple Crown with a .377/9/107 season and 76 steals. I don't know this for a fact, but I bet there were a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games that year.

Walter Johnson, a two-time MVP and career shutouts leader (110) had his best year in 1913. It was one of his two MVP campaigns and in earning the award, he went 36-7 with a 1.14 ERA, 11 shutouts and 243 strikeouts. In 1913, no player topped 20 homeruns and just two topped 100 RBI. By 1924, the game had started to change. The Babe had arrived and smacked 46 homeruns (19 more than the next closest guy) and Rogers Hornsby hit .424. Johnson went 23-7 with a 2.72 ERA, 6 shutouts and 158 strikeouts- not overly eye-popping, but good enough to win the MVP.

My point in all this is if you were to put some of these old-time, dead-ball-era pitchers on the mound against the 2009 Yankee lineup, I doubt they would pitch into the 8th inning. And by head-to-head average box score, durability is their only clear advantage.

Gibson was probably the best pitcher in the 1960's while Carlton and Seaver shared that honor in the 1970's. And because I think it works, let's showcase their average box scores next to Johnson's.

Gibson: 7.4 IP, 2.4 ER, 6.2 H, 2.5 BB, 5.9 K
Carlton: 7.0 IP, 2.5 ER, 6.3 H, 2.5 BB, 5.6 K
Seaver: 7.3 IP, 2.3 ER, 6.0 H, 2.1 BB, 5.6 K
Johnson: 6.7 IP, 2.5 ER, 5.4 H, 2.4 BB, 7.9 K

Gibson won 20 five times, won an MVP and a Cy Young in 1968 (the year he went an astounding 22-9 with a 1.12 ERA, 13 shutouts, and 268 K's...sidenote: how did he lose 9 times?!) and another Cy Young in 1970. But again, in 1968 one guy, Frank Howard, hit more than 40 homeruns. Three guys drove in more than 100, and just six guys hit above .300. Whereas that same year, 8 pitchers finished with an ERA below 2.00, 12 guys threw at least six shutouts, and seven guys won 20 or more. All-time, Gibson currently ranks 14th (and could fall to 15th if John Smoltz notches 34 K's in 2010) on the strikeout list, and won just 251 games- 46th best all time, fewer than Jack Morris, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Jim Katt, and Bert Blyleven.

Carlton won 26 more games than Johnson but he also had the advantage of 123 more career appearances. He also added four Cy Young awards, six 20-win seasons, and he led the league in strikeouts five times. His best season was 1972, where he notched 30 complete games, went 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 310 K's. But at the risk of sounding like a broken record, 1972 was another good year to be a pitcher. Ten of them won 20 or more, 16 of them finished with ERAs of 2.50 or less, and only seven guys hit 30 homeruns.

With Tom Seaver, it's almost a tale of two careers. There are his New York Met days where, between 1967 and 1977, he led the league in wins twice, ERA three times, strikeouts five times, WHIP three times, and strikeouts per 9 six times. But in his nine seasons after 1977, he never won more than 16 games, had a sub-3.00 ERA twice, was an All-Star twice, and struck out more than 150 just once. All told, he managed to win 311 games, Rookie of the Year, and three Cy Youngs. Despite eclipsing 250 IP a total of 11 times, he never racked up 300 K's in a season but he did finish with a sub-2.50 ERA five times (again, all between 1968 and 1975). So in many ways, Seaver was the anti-Johnson. He was great at the beginning of his career, but just okay in the middle and end. Had he been able to enjoy similar success (and health) with the Reds, I think Seaver's career numbers would compare more favorably with Johnson's, but that's simply not the case.

And while Tom Terrific dominated during some of Johnny Bench, Willie Stargell, and Hank Aaron's best years, the head-to-head average box scores tell the true story. When comparing all four, Carlton averaged one more out recorded, and Seaver and Gibson averaged two more than Johnson. Earned runs and walks are very similar and while Johnson has a slight edge in hits, he has a sizeable advantage in K's, and in my opinion, an overall advantage against these three.

That leaves Johnson's contemporaries- Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens. Both are ahead of Randy in the 300-win club (Maddux has 355, Clemens 354), and both boast an equally impressive number of awards. Maddux won four Cy Youngs and 18 Gold Gloves while Clemens won seven Cy Youngs and an MVP.

Unassuming but lethal, Maddux was unhittable in the 90's, leading the league in wins three times, ERA four times, complete games three times, innings pitched five straight times, WHIP four times (including in 1995 where he had allowed a sickening 0.88 baserunners per inning), and strikeout to walk ratio three times. A true control artist, Maddux issued fewer than 50 walks in each of the final 15 years of his career and just 20 in 232 2/3 IP in 1997.

Clemens on the other hand, threw hard, was big and bad and had an up and down career with bouts of dominance in three decades. He enjoyed baseball's lowest ERA in '86, '90-'92, '97-'98, and then again in '05. He ranks just one slot and 203 strikeouts behind Randy Johnson on the all-time list and had six 20-win seasons. But it's his inclusion in baseball's fact-finding steroids document known as the Mitchell Report that has some questioning the legitimacy of those numbers. Clemens denies using PEDs but the proverbial "cloud of suspicion" coupled with former trainer Brian McNamee's allegations to the contrary will likely stick with him for years to come. We'll see what HOF voters think in 2013.

That said, here's a look at their side-by-side average box scores, which are significant in that they played during the same era and pitched to a lot of the same guys:

Maddux: 6.7 IP, 2.4 ER, 6.4 H, 1.3 BB, 4.5 K
Clemens: 6.9 IP, 2.4 ER, 5.9 H, 2.2 BB, 6.6 K
Johnson: 6.7 IP, 2.5 ER, 5.4 H, 2.4 BB, 7.9 K

All three went about as deep into games, allowed about as many earned runs and baserunners, but despite the Rocket's proximity to Johnson on the all-time list, his per-appearance K totals are far behind. Plus, unlike Clemens, Johnson's numbers are assumed to be clean.

A few final points about Randy Johnson, and why I consider him to be the greatest ever. He achieved what he did and was at his best during, what most believe to be a drug-influenced era. In the late 90's and early 00's, we saw hitters put up some of the greatest offensive numbers the game has ever seen and we also saw Johnson go from good to silly-good.

In 1998, 13 players topped 40 homeruns, four topped 50, two topped 60, and one hit 70. That same season, Johnson won 19 games and struck out 329 hitters. In 1999, another 13 hitters topped 40 homeruns and the same two hit 60-plus. Pitching in the same league as those two, Johnson led baseball with a 2.48 ERA, 12 CGs, and 364 strikeouts. In 2000, 16 players hit 40 homeruns. That same year, Johnson led baseball in winning percentage, starts, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts. In 2001 a total of 12 players hit 40+ and one man hit 73. Another man had the best ERA, strikeout total (a career-best 372) and WHIP. And in 2002 just as power numbers were beginning to come back to Earth (only eight topped 40 homeruns, and two topped 50) Johnson turned in perhaps his greatest season- a career-best 24 wins and 2.32 ERA, a fourth consecutive 325+ strikeout season, a fourth consecutive time leading baseball in K/9 and a fourth consecutive Cy Young.

He held future HOF'er Rickey Henderson (whom he faced more times than any other hitter) to a career .119 batting average and struck him out 30 times in 85 plate appearances. In 62 career meetings he allowed 3 homeruns to Barry Bonds and none in 13 times up during his record-setting 2001. Sammy Sosa's career OBP against Johnson is .274 over 62 PAs. HOF'er Cal Ripken had a career OPS of .651 against the Big Unit in 61 times up. Frank Thomas and Albert Belle both hit .233 against him, Mark McGwite .225, Gary Sheffield .209. Todd Helton drove in two runs off Johnson in 50 meetings. HOF'ers Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield hit .200 and .211 off him. He struck out Jose Canseco 17 times in 25 meetings. David Ortiz had a .494 OPS against Johnson over 28 plate appearances. HOF'er Wade Boggs managed two singles and a walk in 18 times up. Newly-voted-in Andre Dawson hit .133 in 15 at-bats. And poor, poor Rafael Palmeiro. In 21 plate appearances he reached base one time. It was a single.

Johnson is a lock for first-ballot induction into the Hall and if ever there was going to be a unanimous selection, it should be him. Given his career numbers, the time during which he pitched, and the juiced-up hitters he had to face, nobody was better.

Hall of Fame Voters Are Absolutely Nuts

2010-01-06T15:15:00.000-05:00

I submit to you the following names as proof: Robin Ventura, Ellis Burks, Erik Karros, Kevin Appier, Pat Hentgen, and David Segui. Each of these players, All-Stars and award winners though they might have been, are not by any stretch of the imagination Hall of Famers. Yet, each one of them received votes today. A few of them even appeared on multiple ballots!

Ventura appeared on the most- seven, which is one more than the number of Gold Gloves he won at third base. But he's a career .267 hitter who slugged 294 homeruns, made a pair of All-Star games, got votes for Rookie of the Year, MVP twice, and had 1885 hits in 16 seasons. In other words, he had a nice, long career and was a solid player. But does he belong in Cooperstown? C'mon.

Offensively, you could probably make the strongest "case" for Burks. He was a two-time All Star, got MVP votes twice, won a Gold Glove and two Silver Sluggers while finishing with 352 homeruns, 2,107 hits, 181 steals and a .291 average over 18 seasons. And his 1996 season in Colorado was one to remember- .344, 40 homeruns, 142 runs, 128 RBI, 93 XBH, 32 steals, and an OPS of 1.047! But his name still doesn't belong between Jesse Burkett and Roy Campanella.

While all these Hall of Fame votes are astonishing, the David Segui ballot is the one that truly makes me think there are mental patients in the BBWAA. Segui was never an All-Star, never won a major award, and never even received votes for a major award. So if you're scoring at home Segui got more Hall of Fame votes than he got MVP votes in 15 seasons.

And it's not like he had a bunch of good-but-under-the-radar seasons. The most homeruns Segui ever hit in a year: 21. Number of times he appeared in at least 150 games in a season: 1. Number of 100 RBI seasons: 1. Number of mentions in the Mitchell Report: 1. Number of public steroid-use admissions: at least 1. His best season, by far was 2000 when he went .334/19/103 in 150 games. These were all career highs achieved right smack-dab in the middle of the Steroids Era.

Nothing against Segui. Good for him for admitting he cheated, and good for him for notching almost 6,000 plate appearances. I'd just love to talk with the guy who thinks he deserves a spot between Tom Seaver and Joe Sewell in baseball immortality.

An Impact Move For The Mets? No Bay!

2009-12-29T16:52:00.000-05:00

Jason Bay and the Mets have agreed on a 4-year, $66 million dollar deal according to WFAN.

While I'm sure New York fans are pleased, this move does not make them the favorites (a) to win the NL East, (b) the NL Wild Card, or (c) even finish above .500.

Let's not forget- this is a team that lost 90 games a year ago. Out of the 16 NL teams, their pitching staff finished 12th in ERA, 11th in quality starts and batting average against, second-to-last in walks allowed, and third-to-last in baserunners per inning. And so far all they've done to address these deficiencies in a pitching-rich division is sign Kelvin Escobar and lose J.J. Putz to free agency.

True, Bay has played in at least 145 games for each of the last 5 seasons and for his career, he averages 33 homeruns, 107 RBI, 12 steals, and a .387 OBP per 162 games played. But let's not forget Bay is switching from the 8th most offense-friendly park in baseball (Fenway) to the 9th worst (Citi Field) so to book him for another .275/30+/100+ season would be presumptious. Just look what Citi Field did to David Wright last year.

The biggest factor in New York's success (or lack thereof) in 2010 is less likely to be Bay's production, but rather the production and health of Jose Reyes. If he's on base and running in front of the likes of Beltran, Wright, and Bay- the Mets might be able to out-slug their opponents 82 times. But if he's not- they might not.

Bottom line...Bay is a good player but he's not a franchise-saver. And worst of all for the Mets, he can't pitch.

Arms Race

2009-12-24T10:44:00.001-05:00

If today was Sunday, April 4th and not Thursday, December 24th, we would be just hours away from the start of the 2010 baseball season with the defending champion Yankees visiting Fenway Park on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Unfortunately, we have to wait 101 days for that to happen. But with New York and Boston adding big-name starters to already talented pitching staffs this month, it's not too early to start the debate: whose is better right now?

First- where things stand. If the season started today, Boston's rotation would likely look something close to this:

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Boof Bonser

While New York's will probably take the form of something resembling this:

C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Chad Gaudin

My first impression is how similar these rotations are. Both boast big-name, World-Series-champion names at the top of the rotation...high-ceiling-when-healthy-veterans in the middle...and full-of-promise young guns at the back end. So at first glance, there's no glaring front-runner.

Breaking it down slot-for-slot though is a different story. When comparing number one starters, the edge has to go to Sabathia. C.C. was everything he was supposed to be last season (19 game winner, low ERA, ton of innings) whereas Beckett was inconsistent (11-3, 3.35 before the break...6-3, 4.53 after...awful in April, brilliant through July, bad in August, good in September). Both are capable of being Cy Young contenders in 2010 but right now, the edge goes to Charles Carsten and New York.

At number two, Jon Lester was the anti-Beckett for the Sox last year, having a rough first two months but then settling down nicely and pitching more like a number one the rest of the way (including his one and only postseason start). He also led the team in strikeouts. Burnett didn't have as many K's as Lester (which is surprising, considering that's one of his specialties) and also had a higher ERA and WHIP, plus he was much more hit-or-miss in '09 (postseason included). So at number two, the edge goes to the Sox. And for Yankee fans who argue Lester is the number one ahead of Beckett, but still not as good as Sabathia, you're right. But Beckett is still better than Burnett. So either way, the teams are 1-1 after their first two starters.

I'm going to do third and fourth starters as a group because there really is no clear cut number three or number four just yet on either team. For the Sox, it probably will be Lackey at three given his immense contract but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dice-K outpitch him and gain the spot. For the Yanks- same thing. Vazquez is the new guy and has better stuff, but Pettitte has the better track record in New York.

As for whose combo is better, this really is open to some interpretation but I'm going to lean Boston and here's why. Over the last five years the 31-year-old Lackey really hasn't had a "bad" season. He hasn't had more than one "excellent" season, but he's always been good. His ERA has always been sub 3.90, he's always been a decent strikeout guy and he's been a bulldog in the postseason. Is he worth what he got? No. Is he a lock to make 32 starts? No. But will he work nicely here? I think so. And it's the same thing for Dice-K. He's not the future Hall of Famer the Sox paid for, but as a number three/four he's also pretty serviceable. It will also be very interesting to see what kind of year he puts together in 2010 if he's completely healthy. His '07 was a learning year, his '08 was lucky, and his '09 was a wash due to arm trouble. But, he's only 29 and we assume he'll enter '10 at 100 percent. Even Yankee fans wouldn't be shocked if he wins 15 games, has a 3.50 ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, which would basically be the average of his '07 and '08 seasons.

The Yankees just can't be 100% sure what they're going to get from Vazquez and Pettitte. Javy was terrible (granted, pitching through pain) in his previous stop in New York and shifts from a very pitcher friendly park to a very hitter friendly one. It's also worth noting that in three seasons in the AL in the last five years, his ERA was 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67. For his career, he is just 3 games over .500 and has allowed nearly a hit an inning. Plus he turns 34 halfway through next season. That's not to say he can't follow up his stellar '09 with a comparable 2010, but I would be absolutely floored if his ERA was under 4 this season, let alone under 3. With Pettitte, it's not an issue of what to expect. He's spent 12 of his 15 excellent big league seasons as a Yankee. With the exception of his rookie season and an injury-shortened '02, he's never won fewer than 14 games and his career ERA is just a shade under 4. The problem is, he turns 38 in June. To his credit, he had a great second half of '09. But he was bad (4.59 ERA) at home, not great in September, and unreliable in the postseason. Maybe he has another Pettitte-like 14-10, 4.15 ERA season in 2010, but he's getting to the age where stuff starts to fade. The biggest thing New York has in its corner is health. Javy and Pettitte have been incredibly healthy lately whereas Lackey and Dice-K both struggled with injuries as recently as last season. But given the age advantage of the Sox starters, plus their potential ceilings when healthy, it's the Boston by a nose.

At number five, I say it's a push because we just don't know what to expect from these guys, nor do we know from which exact guys to expect it. In 16 starts last year Buchholz, the Sox presumptive number five, was 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a K:BB of less than 2:1. He got tagged for 6 earned or more 4 times but at the same time, he had a 10-start-stretch where he made 9 quality starts. He's only 25 and already has a no-hitter on his resume so we know he can pitch. We just don't know if he's ready to make 25+ starts yet.

In New York, 24-year-old Joba Chamberlain had a 2009 that has to be considered disappointing. In 31 starts, he logged just 156 1/3 innings, an average of just 5 innings per appearance. He finished a pedestrian 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA, a K:BB of less than 2:1, allowed 21 homeruns, and more than 3 baserunners every 2 innings. What's absolutely staggering though is a quick glance at his splits when he's a starter versus when he's a reliever. Over his short career (slightly less than 300 innings) he has a 1.50 ERA, .182 BAA, and K:BB of nearly 4:1 in 50 relief appearances. But over his 43 starts, his ERA balloons to 4.18, BAA rises to .266, and K:BB dips to 2:1. So whether we'll see him at the beginning of games or at the end remains to be seen, but there's no denying the talent is there. Another contender, 23-year-old Phil Hughes has a shot at the rotation too, but like Joba, seems much better suited coming out of the pen. Last year his ERA was 5.45 in 7 starts, compared to just 1.40 in 44 relief appearances (the first time he'd relieved). In fact, in 28 career starts over three seasons, his ERA is 5.22 and he's a game under .500. So while it's understandbale that the Yanks would rather see one of these guys make it as a starter, their performances tell much different stories. New York might have to settle for having a dynamite set-up man and closer for the next 10 years.

Are these teams done building their 2010 rotations? Hard to say. I don't see the front-ends changing much, but depending on injuries, player development, and needs at the back end...anything is possible. For now, I give the edge to Boston. We'll see what happens in 101 days.

Is That The Best Atlanta Could Do?

2009-12-22T11:06:00.000-05:00

Javy Vazquez is headed back to New York and all the defending champs had to give up to get him was Melky Cabrera (plus throw-in reliever Mike Dunn and a player to be named).

Melky Cabrera...for a guy who was second in the NL in strikeouts last year and got votes for Cy Young.

Now, if the Braves were giving up the 2004 version of Vazquez (his one and only year as a Yankee) when he had a 4.91 ERA and just 150 strikeouts in 198 innings, I'd say this deal wouldn't be quite so lopsided. But the 2009 version of Javy finished top-5 in wins, K's, WHIP, CGs, IP, and was 6th in ERA- in other words- he's coming off a career year.

Cabrera is, at best, a useful defensive player. But he is also an average-to-below average offensive player and headed to a team in desperate need of sluggers. True, he's just 25. But he's gotten 400+ at-bats each of the last 4 seasons (and played in 150+ games twice). During that span, he's never reached 15 homeruns, never stolen 15 bases, never scored 80 runs (in the Yankee lineup, mind you), never hit 30 doubles, never batted above .280, never driven-in 75, never topped 60 walks, and never slugged .420. He is not currently, nor do imagine him ever becoming, an impact bat.

I know the Braves were looking to move a starter. Even without Vazquez, they still have Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Kenshin Kawakami to go along with new relievers Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito...so their staff is still the deepest in the division (if not the league) 1 through 5. But their lineup is also one of the thinnest. It features Brian McCann, Chipper, Nate McLouth and a lot of unproven/unexciting guys everywhere else. By moving Javy they had a chance to remedy that. But in my opinion, they just blew it.

NOW it's getting interesting!

2009-12-14T17:41:00.000-05:00

Two (apparent) huge developments today involving some of the biggest arms in the game. John Lackey is reportedly headed to the Red Sox for slightly more than $82.5 million over 5 years. And perhaps in an even bigger deal, Roy Halladay is reportedly headed to Philadelphia in a 3-team deal that would send Cliff Lee to Seattle and prospects north of the border.

My knee-jerk reaction is as follows. That's a lot of money and years for Boston to give to a 31-year-old pitcher who won 11 games and had an ERA north of 3.80 last season, and in gaining Halladay but losing Lee, the Phillies haven't really gained a whole lot of ground in their rotation. Lee wot 7 times in 12 starts with the Phillies and had a 3.39 ERA and was even better in the postseason...4-0 with just 33 baserunners allowed in 5 starts.

Bad news for the LA Angels on a couple of fronts. They didn't get either starter and they've now lost two players they liked (Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee) to in-division rival Seattle.

Former A's On The Move

2009-12-10T17:30:00.000-05:00

2004 AL ROY Bobby Crosby inked a one-year-deal to play in baseball purgatory (Pittsburgh) next season. As an Oakland fan, I wish him well and wish him good health most of all. But at this point, he's probably fortunate to get a guaranteed big league contract above the minimum pay rate. Including 2004 he has played in 100+ games just twice. Since that year, he has yet to hit double digit homeruns again and his career OBP is .305 in more than 2,600 plate appearances. More than once this decade, I've said during an offseason, "if Bobby Crosby can just get 600 AB's this year..." Now, I wonder if the numbers would even be worth the wait. Despite all that, I'd love to see him hit .270 with 25 bombs for the Pirates in 2010.

Another oft-injured A, Rich Harden, appears headed to one of the busiest teams this winter- Texas. He would effectively replace Kevin Millwood in the rotation and if healthy (which is kind of like saying if Democrats and Republicans would just agree on a direction for health care reform...) he could anchor the staff on a dangerous Ranger club which will also feature, apparently, former Bostonian Mike Lowell playing somewhere in the infield. Harden is the ultimate talent tease- so good when he's in service, but rarely in service for an extended period of time. The 28-year-old has averaged 9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched for his career. He also has a 3.39 ERA and .220 BAA over 750+ innings pitched. For a frame of reference, these numbers are better than Johan Santana's career stats (granted, smaller sample size). Had Harden racked up these totals over, say, four seasons, we'd be talking about a potential future Hall of Famer. Problem is, it's taken Richie Rich parts of seven seasons to do it. So the Rangers will hold their breath, roll the dice, and get the ice machine ready for #40.

I'll keep this short...

2009-12-09T19:52:00.000-05:00

If someone can give me ONE compelling reason why Millwood-to-the-O's makes sense for Baltimore, I will mail you a $20 dollar bill.

Here are the facts...

-Mill turns 35 in a coupla weeks (check minus)
-The gave up a soon-to-be 28-year-old former closer and player to be named later to get him (check-minus)
-Last time I checked, Boston and New York still look good on paper the next few years (check minus)
-Last time I checked, the O's were "committed" to a youth movement

Ball's in your court, blogosphere...and "he's their 2010 Opening Day starter" doesn't cut it as a viable excuse.

Grander(son) Slam For The Yanks?

2009-12-08T19:22:00.001-05:00

Finally! FINALLY! The Yankees have found a way to land a big name during the offseason.

Poor Bronx Bomber fans have had to suffer an excruciating month-plus since winning the World Series, and almost an entire year since their last big-name offseason "get." But now, their wait is over. Their patience, rewarded. Curtis Granderson, appears to be headed to New York...concrete jungle where dreams are made of...there's nothing you can't do..now you're in New York (and so on, and so forth).

Breaking down the 3-team deal, it's unclear who the true winner is because there's so much young talent involved, but here's what we know. New York gets Granderson, a guy who can play center field but a guy who, offensively, has been somewhat enigmatic during the course of his career. Is he the guy who had a putrid-for-a-top-of-the-order-type .321 OBP last year with 30 bombs and 141 wiffs or is he the guy who seemed destined for superstardom just two years ago when he hit .302 with 122 runs, and 84 XBH? I dunno. But what I do know is that his OPS and his runs totals have both dipped for 3 straight seasons and for his career, he averages a strikeout every 4.2 at-bats.

Tim Kurkjian had a good point on SportsCenter just now, though. He said in the Yankee lineup, all Granderson has to be is good, not great- a defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon (check) and a guy who won't let the bright lights and big city atmosphere become a distraction (based on his character to date, we can mark this as a check, too). For the record, Damon went .282/24/82 with 12 steals last year. There's no reason to think Granderson won't at least match that, plus he's 8 years younger, so we can only presume he will be an upgrade.

The other players (and teams) involved in this deal are fascinating too. The Diamondbacks will add Detroit's Edwin Jackson and New York's Ian Kennedy to a rotation that already features Dan Haren and Brandon Webb. After years of hype and promise, Jackson finally put it together last year. He won 13 games, topped 200 IP for the first time in his career, and notched 161 strikeouts with a respectable 1.26 WHIP. He's only 26 years old, but his ERA did rise in every single month of the '09 season.

Kennedy is about to turn 25 and hasn't logged 60 career big league innings, but has been a guy on New York's radar for the last few seasons, despite battling injuries on and off in 2009. He's no lock to make the rotation out of camp, but if given the opportunity, could turn in a Jackson-in-'09 type year in 2010.

Detroit, according to ESPN's Keith Law, is the early front-runner for "team that made out the best" in this transaction. They dump Granderson's salary. They get the mega-hyped 25-year-old flamethrower Max Scherzer from Arizona, along with 23-year-old reliever Daniel Schlereth. On top of that, they get workhorse reliever Phil Coke from the Yanks and one of their top prospects, outfielder Austin Jackson.

Scherzer has electric stuff, a violent motion, and 240 career strikeouts in 226 1/3 career innings at the major league level so his ceiling could be quite high and in Detroit, he will compliment Justin Verlander quite nicely. Schlereth is a lefty, was the 26th player taken in the '08 draft, and also averaged more than a punch an inning in limited action last year (18 1/3 innings). Coke, another lefty, made 72 appearances for the champs last year, notched 21 holds and finished with a WHIP just a touch over 1.00 but did allow 10 homeruns in 60 innings. And Jackson hit .300 at Triple-A last year with more than 20 steals and 65 RBI. In other words, he could be a less powerful, more disciplined version of Granderson, and soon.

Bottom line...the Yankees upgrade defensively, perhaps a little bit offensively, and definitely get younger but it costs them an aging-prospect-starter, a reliable lefty set-up man and one of their top offensive prospects who might end up being close to as good as they guy they got. Arizona gets an up-and-coming middle-of-the rotation starter, plus a guy who might also be another middle-of-the rotation starter but it costs them a young lefty and one of their more exciting, young big league arms. And Detroit gets leaner, gets another young fireballer, two good lefty relievers, and a guy who...in a few years...could make them forget about the only guy they gave up. At this moment, I agree with Keith Law.

See that. Made it the entire post without mentioning Roy Halladay.

Placido's A Phillie

2009-12-03T16:03:00.000-05:00

In the first moderately interesting, multi-year signing of the off-season, the Pedro Feliz Era came to an abrupt end Thursday when the Philadelphia Phillies inked Placido Polanco to a 3-year, $18 milion dollar deal.

Polanco didn't set the world on fire offensively last year (10 homeruns, 31 doubles, .331 OBP, 7 steals) but he's a high-contact guy, averaging 43 wiffs per 162 games played over his 9 year career, an excellent defender (2 errors at second base all of last year...and an average of 7.5 boots per 162 games played at third) and a career .303 hitter. And let's face it...surrounded by Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez, he doesn't need to hit .340 to be useful.

In other news, the Atlanta Braves continue to set their sights on 103 victories by a final score of 2-1 in 2010 by signing another set-up/closer type...Takashi Saito. This, just after hours after agreeing to terms with Billy Wagner.

If "Number Of Partially Nude Photos Stolen From A Girlfriend's Email" Was A Fantasy Baseball Category...

2009-11-30T13:46:00.000-05:00

...Grady Sizemore would be next year's #1 overall pick. This is definitely a shame for him, but it also gets back to the oft-repeated, seldom-heeded addage of the digital age- don't take pictures or videotape something you wouldn't want your grandmother to watch.

Most Valuable Yankee Of 2009?

2009-11-24T10:52:00.001-05:00

Teixeira? Jeter? A-Rod? Sabathia? Let's find out.

As Matt pointed out in a previous post, the Yankees opened the season 13-15 without Alex Rodriguez. Once he returned to action, they went 90-44. So was he the engine that powered their lineup? Does that make him their regular season MVP?

Well, on the last day of June (roughly two months into A-Rod's return), the Yankees had just won their 6th game in a row, had improved their mark to 44-32 overall and had won 31 of their 48 games since getting A-Rod back (a .646 winning percentage). At the time, the game's highest paid player was hitting .233 with 12 homeruns and 39 RBI in 159 at bats. True, his on-base percentage was very good (.399) but in the month of June, he slugged a very pedestrian .415. During those same two months, Derek Jeter's on base percentage was virtually identical but he hit 80 points higher with just 2 fewer extra base hits, plus 13 steals. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira's May and June numbers look like this: .300 average, 17 homeruns, 19 doubles, 50 RBI, .391 OBP in 210 ABs. And let's not forget about C.C. Sabathia's 6-2 record and BAA of just over .200 during that time period, either. Perhaps the return of #13 helped settle everybody down.

That gets us close to the All-Star break. But let's not forget- the Yankees were still trailing the Red Sox by 3 games headed into homerun derby. They officially took the lead in the AL East July 21 and at the end of the month, they only had a game and a half advantage. It wasn't until August that they really pulled away. So who were the best Yankees then?

Well, A-Rod did hit .315 with 8 XBH, 12 RBI and 18 walks in August- a very good month. But Derek Jeter hit .377 with 12 XBH, 17 RBI and a higher OPS than Alex. Mark Teixeira was also very good...26 RBI, 32 runs scored (both best of the 3) and an OPS of .914. Oh, by the way, C.C. Sabathia went 5-0 in his 6 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00.

Entering September, the Yanks just about had it locked up. They had a 6.5 game lead with 32 remaining. A-Rod had another good month (.337/5/23 with a .958 OPS) but so did Jeter (.450 OBP, 7 steals), so did Tex (.343/7/20 with a 1.081 OPS), and so did C.C. (4-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP below 1.00).

And just for fun- against the Red Sox this season, Teixeira's OPS was 104 points higher than A-Rod's (1.123 vs. 1.027), plus Sabathia went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and .172 BAA.

So while it's most definitely accurate to say the Yankees clicked once they got A-Rod back, I'm not sure if that makes him the team's 2009 MVP, given what the guys around him did, too. My vote goes to Teixeira.

By "Miggy" Did He Mean "Mauer?"

2009-11-23T17:31:00.000-05:00

Joe Mauer is the American League's 2009 MVP. No argument, or real surprise there. Dude was Senior Consistency this year, hitting basically .350 or better in every splits situation they measure and probably a few they don't (day game on a Wednesday, runner named Mike on first?). Plus no player was on base more often, or slugged higher than he did and he plays the most demanding position on the field.

No, the real surprise during today's MVP voting was the fact that Miguel Cabrera received more first-place votes (1) than Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira combined.

I'm not saying Miggy didn't have a great year because he did, but let's break it down. His batting average and on base percentage wasn't as good as Mauer's or Jeter's. He didn't hit as many dingers, drive in as many, or slug as high as Teixiera, plus only 4 AL first baseman had more errors than his 7 (I know defense doesn't matter a ton in MVP voting, but my point is Tex had the better all-around season).

And perhaps this is going through his numbers with too fine-toothed of a comb but...over the Tigers last 9 games of the season (where they blew a 2 game lead in the AL Central and ended up missing the postseason) he hit just .205 with 3 RBI. These were critical games against the White Sox and Twins and his team went 3-6 in that stretch. If you recall, right smack dab in the middle of all this was the domestic incident with his wife where, according to police, he was more than three times over the legal limit, "very uncooperative and highly intoxicated." Nobody was charged with a crime and I wouldn't say this rough patch alone would automatically disqualify him from the award. I'm just saying Mauer, Jeter, and Tex kept their noses clean when it mattered most.

Apparently the one guy who gave Miggy a first place vote is a writer from Japan. Curious, to say the least.

It's also worth pointing out that this is the second time in a week that a Detroit Tiger has inexplicably received a first-place vote for a major postseason award despite the presence of several more qualified candidates. Justin Verlander had a great season just like Miguel Cabrera did. But just like Miggy wasn't better than Mauer, Jeter, or Tex, Verlander wasn't better than Greinke or King Felix.

Lincecum And My Concerns

2009-11-20T09:53:00.000-05:00

First off, congrats to 25-year-old Tim Lincecum on winning his second Cy Young award in as many years yesterday. It's tough to win one and even tougher to repeat. The American League has only had 4 repeat winners (Pedro, Clemens two different times, Palmer, and McLain) and not counting Lincecum, it's only happened to 3 other NL pitchers (The Big Unit and Maddux 4 years in a row, and Sandy Koufax).

That said, here's what worries me about Lincecum.

He is 5'11, 170 pounds. In the past two seasons, he has thrown more than 450 innings and because he's a big-time strikeout pitcher, he has averaged nearly 16 pitches per inning over the course of his short career. Plus, unlike what was the case with Maddux or Clemens, there aren't too many Little League coaches out there who are teaching their kids to throw just like Timmy.

I looked it up and over the past two seasons in Major League baseball, only 5 starting pitchers have thrown at least 3,400 pitches in each season- Justin Verlander (7,459), C.C. Sabathia (7,400), Lincecum (7,121), A.J. Burnett (7,109), and Bronson Arroyo (6,840). Out of the group, Timmy is the only guy who's not at least 6'4'' and the next skinniest guy on the list (Arroyo) outweighs him by 25 pounds (and Sabathia has him by a full person- 120 pounds).

Knock on wood, Lincecum has been a picture of health his first 3 seasons in the big leagues. I just wonder how much longer his spindly build will continue to produce such eye-popping seasons and eye-popping pitch counts without any backlash.

I'm Back!

2009-11-19T09:52:00.004-05:00

After a nearly one-year hiatus, I've decided to re-take-up (soooo not an actual English phrase) blogging. Sorry for the lack of posts in the last calendar year. I was...busy?

Okay...let's talk awards. No beef so far with either of the Rookies of the Year (Coghlan and Bailey) or AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke. It's a lock Albert Pujols wins NL MVP, so the only real drama seems to be NL Cy Young and AL MVP.

NL Cy Young
In the senior circuit, it's essentially a race between Tim Lincecum, and whichever Cardinals starter you like better- Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright. That said, here's a look at their numbers from this season in a way you probably haven't looked at them yet. Based on the numbers they compiled throughout the course of the year, here is the average pitching line for each of our contenders in the 2009 season.

Lincecum- 7.04 IP, 5.25 H, 2.13 BB, 1.94 ER, 8.16 K's, 107.5 pitches

Carpenter- 6.88 IP, 5.57 H, 1.36 BB, 1.71 ER, 5.14 K's, 95.4 pitches

Wainwright- 6.85 IP, 6.35 H, 1.94 BB, 2.00 ER, 6.24 K's, 106.3 pitches

Looking at it this way, trendy stats like quality start percentage, WHIP, and batting average or OPS against take care of themselves.

So what do we take away from these three average pitching lines? Whose would you rather have? Well, first-off we see Lincecum recorded an average of half an out more per start than his next closest competitor. I like that a lot. We also see that in terms of baserunners allowed per start (7.38 for Lincecum, 6.93 for Carpenter, 8.29 for Wainwright) Wainwright was the least impressive. He didn't pitch as deep into games as the other two, took more pitches to get there than Carpenter and almost as many as Lincecum, plus he allowed the most runners by far. To top it all off, Lincecum has the clear edge in strikeouts, which in some respects makes his higher walk rate less relevant. And when you factor in Carpenter's 28 starts compared to 32 and 34 for Lincecum and Wainwright respectivley, it's a cakewalk as far as I'm concerned. Lincecum was clearly the best of all NL pitchers in '09 with Carpenter second and Wainwright third. The actual winner is announced today at 2PM.

AL MVP
Much tougher to quantify in my opinion because the main contenders- Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, and Mark Teixeira are different kinds of players. Jeter is your prototypical leadoff hitter who handles the bat well, sees lots of pitches, gets on base, runs and gives his team a 1-0 lead. Mauer is a classic number two or three hitter- high average, lots of balls in play, good line drive stroke and tough to strike out. And Tex is about as good of a middle-of-the-order, thumper type as you could ask for- a threat to go yard every time up with tons of RBI. And all three won Gold Gloves this year (although some pundits have questioned whether any of them deserved it).

As a starting point, here are their basic numbers from 2009:

Jeter- .334 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 107 R, 30 SB, .871 OPS
Mauer- .365 AVG, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 94 R, 4 SB, 1.031 OPS
Teixeira- .292 AVG, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 2 SB, .948 OPS

All very impressive.

Digging deeper (because I am a firm believer that an MVP candidate finishes the season strong and has to get a lot of big hits throughout the course of the season) here are some other things to consider. Jeter hit .351 after the break and had a .450 OBP in September, but hit just .259 in his 135 at-bats with men in scoring position. Tex hit .313 after the break including a .343, 7 HR month of September. He also hit .355 with 31 RBI in 62 at-bats with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. And while he hit just .264 overall with men in scoring position, he also had an on-base percentage of more than .400 in that scenario. So in those 174 at-bats, he had 46 hits and 39 walks- selective in that good Yankee lineup.

Here's where Joe Mauer is no ordinary Joe, though. He hit .358 in the second half, and had an OPS of at least .997 in each of the following situations: leading off an inning, nobody on, at least one baserunner on, runner(s) in scoring position, runner(s) in scoring position and 2 out, and the bases loaded. To top it all off, in 113 at-bats in September and October while his team was in a dogfight to get into the postseason, he hit .354 with twice as many walks (24) as strikeouts (12). And he did this while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond.

It's because of that fact that I give the nod to Mauer for MVP with Tex second and Jeter a close third. AL MVP will be announced Monday.

First Team All Free Agent

2008-11-13T19:58:00.004-05:00

Let's just say the stove is getting hot.

C - Ivan Rodriguez (36; 13 Gold Gloves; 2,605 hits)
1b - Mark Teixeira (28; 2 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Gloves; .919 career OPS; 30 HR/100 RBI 5 straight seasons)
2b - Orlando Hudson (30; 2 Gold Gloves; .346 career OBP)
SS - Rafael Furcal (31; 20+ steals 8 of 9 seasons; .352 career OBP)
3b - Joe Crede (30; 1 Silver Slugger, 125 career HR)
OF - Manny Ramirez (36; 3 Silver Sluggers; 1.004 career OPS; 527 career HR)
OF - Adam Dunn (29; .381 career OBP; 40 HR/100 BB 5 straight seasons;
OF - Bobby Abreu (34; 1 Silver Slugger; 1 Gold Glove; .405 career OBP; 95 R/100 RBI 6 straight seasons)
DH - Pat Burrell (32; .367 career OBP; 251 career HR; 85 RBI/95 BB 4 straight seasons)
SP - C.C. Sabathia (28; 1 Cy Young; 117 career wins; 36 wins/460 K's last 2 seasons)
SP - A.J. Burnett (31; .235 career BAA; 87 career wins; 18 W/231 K in '08)
SP - Ben Sheets (30; 86 wins; 1.20 career WHIP; 7.6 career K/9)
RP - Francisco Rodriguiez (26; 208 career saves; 40 saves 4 straight seasons; 2.35 career ERA)

I've Had My Phil

2008-10-29T22:14:00.003-04:00

Well, the Phillies are the champs, and despite the concerns of some fans in the City of Brotherly Love, Game 5 in all its suspended glory was every bit as dramatic and climactic as it would have been had it been completed Monday night. The pile on the mound was just as enthusiastic and the champagne was just as cold (I assume), so relax, naysayers.

As for individual players, you have to acknowledge the performance of Brad Lidge. A guy whose career as a dominant 9th inning man seemed all-but-over a few seasons ago is now alive and well, following a 48-for-48 season concerting saves including the postseason. He's not a Dennis Eckersley kind of closer. He's going to put guys on base and he's going to give up runs, but he's also going to pitch out of trouble and make hitters (Eric Hinske) look like they've never seen a slider before. For him to bounce back and do so in such convincing fashion speaks volumes about his character.

Speaking of character, they didn't talk about it at all during the game, but did anyone else see B.J. Upton not bust it out of the box on his double-play grounder in the 8th? This was a huge play in the game. The Rays were down a run and J.C. Romero gave up a leadoff single. So Upton had a chance to, at the very least, put a lightning-quick guy (Carl Crawford) in scoring position with one out and the heart of the order due up. But instead, he hit a weak grounder to short and, in my estimation, was not at top speed when the throw hit Ryan Howard's glove. Had this been just about any other hitter, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt, but since it's Upton, a guy who was benched multiple times this season for lack of hustle, I have to wonder what in the hell was going through his head. For someone who is allegedly one of the fastest runners in baseball, he grounded into 13 double plays during the regular season, plus 4 more in 5 World Series games. That's more than noted sloths Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Kevin Milar, Jack Cust, and Jason Giambi. It's also way more than his younger brother Justin, who hit into just 3 twin-killings in 417 plate appearances and his teammate Akinori Iwamura, who grounded into only 2 double plays in more than 700 plate appearances (yet Iwamura stole 8 bases this year compared to Upton's 44). Bottom line, while it wasn't as blatant, he tanked it again and on the biggest stage posible. Mark my words, this guy is not going to end up being as big of a superstar as everybody thinks.

Pat Burrell also didn't run hard on his leadoff double in the 7th because he thought he'd hit a go-ahead homerun, but in his defense, you don't want to make the first out at third in that situation. Plus, although perhaps not fairly, it's forgiven because pinch runner Eric Bruntlett ended up scoring.

This was also the first time I got to see David Price pitch live and I must say- wow. Mid-to-high 90's fastball that he can throw arm side and extension side, and that slider. His only downfall in '09, I fear, will be the leash the Rays keep him on with regards to innings and pitches thrown, and to a lesser extent occasionally spotty control.

Given everything he's been through this year, I also thought it was a nice moment when Rocco Baldelli hit a game-tying homerun off Ryan Madson in the top of the 7th. You have to wonder if Baldelli will have a more memorable moment in a career that's certain to be cut short. It's too bad for him that this bit hit was rendered meaningless in the bottom half of the inning.

Finally, for all the talk about matchups, bullpens, and shortening an already short Game 5 Wednesday night, did anybody else notice that no reliever had a 1-2-3 inning? A total of 7 different guys pitched 6 half-innings and not one of them could retire each guy he faced. I guess when it's all on the line and the wind chill is 25, even the best of the best become human.

In closing- good for the Phillies and good for Philadelphia. They were my favorite to win it all at the start of October (although I had them beating the Sox) and for many of the reasons I've previously highlighted (big boppers, speedsters, best bullpen, hottest starting pitcher), they made me look like I know what I'm talking about. I'm sure '09 will afford many opportunities for me to re-insert my foot in my mouth.

This Is Big

2008-10-11T08:18:00.004-04:00

Tonight's start will the biggest in Scott Kazmir's life. The Rays cannot fall behind 2-0 with the series shifting to Fenway and Jon Lester waiting in the wings. They simply can't. So tonight at the Trop, it all comes down to the little lefty and his big arm.

For the record, it's been almost 3 months since he pitched more than 6 innings and in two September starts against the Red Sox (one at home, one on the road), he went 0-1 with a ERA of 11.00.

And did I mention Josh Beckett is pitching for Boston tonight?

Yeah, this one's big.

300

2008-10-06T16:58:00.005-04:00

That's how many posts I've completed on the ol' Baseblogg in its year and three quarters of existence. And it's also the topic of this particular post.

.300 is largely considered to be the gold standard among hitters. And while it's a ridiculous notion that a .299 hitter is somehow a much worse hitter than somebody who hit a point higher, there's just something about that first number being a 3 that resonates with fans, sportswriters, agents, and potential suitors.

This year's batting champs, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones, hit .328 and .364 respectively. Additionally, Mauer was one of 17 AL hitters to meet or exceed the magic number, while Jones was one of 14 in the senior circuit. When you add the 3 hitters who were traded mid-season but combined to hit .300 in all their at-bats this season (Manny Ramirez hit .332, Mark Teixeira hit .308, and Xavier Nady hit .305), that means just 34 of the qualifying 147 big league hitters this season were .300 hitters (apologies to Ryan Ludwick and his .299). 34 of 147 works out to 23.1%.

Just for fun, I looked at the last few years in the big leagues, and interestingly, the numbers are fairly consistent. Last year, 40 players hit .300 while 162 qualified (24.7%), the year before it was 38 out of 160 (23.8%), and in 2005 it was 33 of 148 (22.2%). 2004's rate was 22.3%, 2003's was 24.2%, and 2002's was 23.1%. In the few years after that, the ratio is a little closer to 30%, but I'm inclined to think something that rhymes with "beeroids" might have been afoot then.

So right now in the big leagues, less than a quarter of the hitters in the big leagues are considered "good hitters" if a "good hitter" to you is one who gets a hit at least 3 out of every 10 at bats- just something extra to ponder while you're watching the Sox and the Sox tonight.

My World Series

2008-10-01T05:56:00.005-04:00

Now that we know the Mets and Twins will be spending their Octobers playing golf, it's time to break down the playoff matchups and make some predictions.

Just for a frame of reference, back when I made my preseason predictions in mid-February, I had the Red Sox winning the East, the Tigers taking the Central, and the Mariners winning the West with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. In the NL, I liked the Mets in the East, the Cubs in the Central, the D-Backs in the West, and the Dodgers to win the Wild Card. So, I was 1-8 in picking the exact winners, and 3-8 in picking playoff teams Ouch (although I did say I thought the Dodgers would beat the Red Sox, so that could still happen).

So now that the teams have been picked for me, my job shoudl be easier, right? We'll see. Anyway, in the Divisional Round I like the White Sox to beat the Rays, the Red Sox to beat the Angels, the Dodgers over the Cubs, and Phillies over the Brewers. The Chi Sox, frankly, showed me something the last few games. This is an experienced playoff team that knows how to win tight, do-or-die games. Plus, they can rake, and have a dynamite bullpen. Their lack of speed concerns me, though. Also, I guess I'm still not sold on the Rays pitching, at least not in the pressure-packed postseason. This series has the chance to go all 5, though. The only reason I'm picking Boston is because LA hasn't had to play a significant game in about 2 months. They've had a 10-game lead or bigger ever since. So in the rest vs. rust debate, I'm going with the latter. I also think Josh Beckett is going to show up big time. In the NL, I'm also going against the grain, picking against the Cubs. Don't get me wrong, I like Chicago and would love to see them finally win a World Series. I just don't trust Carlos Zambrano's emotions or Rich Harden's arm. Plus, LA is red-hot right now. And the Brewers, God love 'em, just don't have the pitching (starting or relief) to hang with the Phillies. They'll win Sabathia's start, but no other games.

In the League Championship round, I still like Boston in the battle of the Sox and I'm taking Philadelphia over the Dodgers. The Red Sox, for all their flaws (starting pitching questions, middle relief questions) are the superior team because unlike Chicago, they have the ability to manufacture runs- a must in the postseason. They have two dynamic MVP candidates and neither of them are named David Ortiz. And I don't see the Chi Sox doing particularly well at Fenway. And I like the Phillies because they are simply a more well-rounded club than the Dodgers. They have better starting pitching, more power, and better speed. Plus, Manny has to cool off at some point, right?

Finally, in the World Series, I'm going to go with the Phillies over the Red Sox. Few people seemed to notice that Brad Lidge was perfect in save chances this year and most people seem to have forgotten than Jimmy Rollins is a proud, reigning MVP. This team is dynamic offensively, comes at you with a number of looks on the mound, and plays its home games in a ballpark that really benefits guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell. Sorry Terry Francona, I think your World Series game winning streak is not only going to come to an end in 2008, but I think you're going to lose 4 times.

Oh, Sheet(s)

2008-09-27T04:25:00.005-04:00

Fresh off last night's big win against the Cubs, Big Ben (not Roethlisberger) is going to try to take the mound for the Brewers in a game that could send Milwaukee to the postseason for the first time since 1982. Mr. Sheets' last start (ironically, also against Chicago) ended with an early exit thanks to a sore elbow. But after taking the last 9 days off, he says he's ready to go. We'll see.

The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly, who has also been named Chicago's NLDS Game 4 starter (if necessary). Last night, Chicago's NLDS Game 1 starter, Ryan Dempster, was pulled after just 5 innings and I wouldn't expect Lilly to throw for much more than 5 or 6 today. First pitch is at 3:35 this afternoon.

Sheets' comeback attempt is huge for several reasons. First, if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Wild Card race would be officially over. That's because the Mets didn't show up (again) last night and lost to the Marlins 6-1. New York has now lost 5 of its last 7, now sits 1 game back of the Wild Card and 2 back in the NL East with 2 to play (thanks to a win by the Phillies last night who are now a win, or a Mets loss away from clinching), and is on the verge of a second consecutive late-September meltdown, although this one is not nearly as cataclysmic as last year's.

The second reason a Sheets win and Mets loss would be huge for Milwaukee is that it would enable the Brew Crew to rest C.C. Sabathia until Game 1 of the NLDS against Philadelphia. Of course if Ben gets bounced, or the Mets win, it all comes down to Sunday.

Speaking of the Mets, in their desperate playoff push, it seems they've pushed Johan Santana up a day in the rotation, which makes sense because his start Sunday wouldn't mean a thing if his team loses Saturday. And faced with the alternatives of a not-quite-healthty John Maine and rookie Jonathon Niese, I'd say they're doing the right thing. Florida counters with ace Ricky Nolasco at 1:10 this afternoon, meaning the Brewers will likely know the outcome of that game when they take the field for theirs.

In the AL, the Twins and White Sox both lost, meaning Minnesota still has a half-game lead. No matter what happens today, nobody will be able to clinch because the Sox have played one fewer game than the Twins. The only way Ozzie Guillen's team won't play Monday's make-up against Detroit is if Chicago is a game and a half up, or a game and a half down in the Central on Sunday.

Unlike in the NL, today's pitching matchups are unchanged. It's Glen Perkins for the Twins against Gil Meche of the Royals, and Javy Vazquez for the Sox against rookie Zach Jackson for the Tribe.

Stay tuned...

This Is Just Nuts!

2008-09-26T11:25:00.005-04:00

In honor of Ryan Braun's Brandy-Chastain-like celebration last night, I was going to call this post "Crunch Time" because obviously somebody's been doing his core-strengthening exercises. But I think the headline I went with works too.

Here's the deal. There are three days left in the regular season. That's it. And yet somehow, we are still waiting to find out who will win two different divisional races and one Wild Card spot.

Last night, the Twins beat the White Sox in extra innings to complete an improbable sweep and now lead the AL Central by half a game. They're at home this weekend against the Kansas City Royals. The Sox are also home this weekend against Cleveland, and then have to host a make-up game Monday against the Detroit Tigers, although there's a chance it won't mean anything if the Twins win one more game than the Sox do this weekend.

Then in the NL, the Mets and Brewers both had walk-off wins at home, meaning the Wild Card stalemate continues. And the Phillies had an off-day, so they still lead the East by a full game.

So in short, we have 3 playoff spots open and 5 teams with very real shots at earning them.

Back to the AL, the Twins will throw Francisco Liriano (1-0, 4.56 ERA in his last two starts) against Kyle Davies (2-0, 1.20 ERA in his last two) tonight. Saturday, it's Glen Perkins for the Twins (9.42 ERA in September) against Gil Meche (10 of his last 13 appearances have been quality starts). Then Sunday, it's Minnestoa's Scott Baker (winner of his last 3 decisions) against Brandon Duckworth (who's thrown back-to-back quality starts). The Royals are not pushovers. In fact, they've won 12 times in their last 15 games, so the Twins aren't going to sweep them. And I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals go 2-1, meaning the Twins would finish up at 88-74.

The Sox, who've lost 7 of 10, will go with John Danks tonight (13 consecutive scoreless innings) against rookie Scott Lewis (who's won his first 3 big league starts). Saturday, it's Javy Vazquez (coming off back-to-back losses) against rookie Zach Jackson (up and down since being acquired in the Sabathia trade). And then Sunday it's a real treat with Mark Buehrle (5 straight quality starts) against Cliff Lee (who lost Tuesday for the first time since July 6). Monday's game against the Tigers is scheduled to be Gavin Floyd (5.20 September ERA) against Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50 ERA in 2 starts this season). Before dropping 3 of 4 in Boston, the Tribe had won 7 in a row and the Tigers would like nothing more than to ruin Chicago's season (it's really all they have left to play for), so a 1-3 finish for the Northsiders is not out of the realm of possibility. My guess is, they finish 87-75 and miss October by 1 game.

In the NL, the Phillies host the Nats for 3. They have Joe Blanton (3-0 in his last 3 decisions), Jamie Moyer (5-0 in his last 5 decisions), and then Cole Hamels (2.98 ERA post All-Start break) slated to throw against rookie Collin Balester (3 quality starts in 14 tries the year), John Lannan (2 earned in his last 14 IP), and Odalis Perez (fresh off back-to-back quality starts). I think the Phillies easily win the series, and could even sweep. So at 92-70 or 91-71, they'll win the East.

That leaves the Mets and Brewers to slug it out for the Wild Card. New York hosts Floirida, who finished their season last year. The Mets will go with Mike Pelfrey (7 quality starts in last 8), rookie Jonathon Niese (1 great start, 2 bad starts in his brief career) and Johan Santana (6-0, 2.38 ERA since the break) against Chris Volstad (3 earned or fewer in each of his last 5 starts), Ricky Nolasco (11 straight quality starts) and Scott Olsen (3.38 ERA in September). I think the Mets will lose Saturday and win Sunday, so it all comes down to tonight. Pelfrey v. Volstad is too close to call right now. So they'll end up either 90-72 or 89-73, pending tonight's outcome.

Finally, the Brew Crew hosts the Central-champion Cubs, who really have nothing to play for and could adopt a "don't get hurt" mentality in this series. In other words, it would appear Milwaukee has the advantage. But they will throw Jeff Suppan (10.47 ERA this month) against NLDS Game 1 starter Ryan Dempster (2.57 ERA since the break) tonight, David Bush (6 IP or fewer in his last 3 starts) against Ted Lilly (7 IP or more in his last 3 starts) Saturday, and then C.C. Sabathia (10-2, 1.78 ERA since being traded, but making his 4th start in 13 days) against Jason Marquis (who lost to the Brewers a week and a half ago) in the finale. Certainly Suppan against Dempster appears to favor the Cubs as does the Bush/Lilly matchup Saturday. Sunday is a tough call. Sabathia's been great, but he's been a bit more human this month (2.67 ERA) and you have to wonder if pitching on short rest for the 3rd turn in a row will take a toll on his stuff. Then again, will Lou Piniella play all his starters for all 9 innings? And will his pitchers be allowed to go deep into games? I know he doesn't want to get swept going into the playoffs, but a win and two losses in these unimportant games would be perfectly acceptable. My prediction is, the Cubs win tonight, lose Saturday, then lose Sunday, making Milwaukee 90-72. It sure will be fun to scoreboard-watch Sunday though as two of the best pitchers in the game try to propel their teams into October, but in my mind, the Brewers have a slight advantage over the Mets as we close out the season.

Down The Stretch They Come!

2008-09-17T07:00:00.005-04:00

Not all teams have the luxury of being able to rest and set up their playoff starting rotations like the L.A. Angels. Others (in fact almost all the other potentially playoff-bound teams) have something to play for, even though there's only a week and a half left in the season.

In the AL East, Tampa now has a full one game lead over the Sox with yet another late-inning rally last night- the third time they've done it to them in the last 8 days! These two hook up again tonight (Wakefield vs. Garza) but don't play again in the regular season, and may not play each other again until spring training '09. Including tonight, the Sox have 11 games left, with 7 at home to close the season when the Indians and Yankees come to town. For Tampa, they host Minnesota then end on the road with 4 in Baltimore and 4 in Detroit. So by virtue of the home/away factor the rest of the way, plus the fact that the Rays have 13 games left rather than 11, I'll give the edge to the Sox here and guess they'll sneak in and win the East, with Tampa getting the Wild Card. Although if the Rays rough up Wakefield tonight, they'll be a full two up with 12 to go and that could complicate things. By the way, they're 7-1 against the Sox at home this year.

In the Central, the Sox got back to their winning ways and the Twins stuck to their losing ways, enabling Ozzie Guillen and Co. to extend their lead to 2.5 games. They have two more in New York, followed by an easy-to-look-past series in Kansas City before heading to Minnesota for what will likely be a do-or-die 3 game series for the Twins. They return home for their final 3 of '08 against Cleveland...a total of 11 games. Minnesota has a tough road ahead. Tonight, they'll try to avoid a sweep and a 4-game losing streak at Cleveland and it won't be easy because Cliff Lee is on the bump. Then, it's off to Tampa for 4 before closing out their season at home with those 3 against the Sox and then another 3 against KC. Unless they right the ship soon, their series with the Sox might be "sweep or bust," so the smart money's on Chicago to win the Central.

In the NL East last night, the Phillies, winners of 5 in a row, leap-frogged the Mets, losers of 3 in a row. And there's not much reason to think they can't continue their hot play the next 11 games. They have two more in Atlanta, then 3 in Florida, before a pair of 3-game home series with the Braves and Nationals. The road series with the Fish could be tricky, but everybody else is well below .500. The Mets have made things especially difficult on themselves because this is the so-called easy part of the remainder of their schedule. They have 2 more at Washington, then 3 at Atlanta. But those two clubs alone have taken 4 out of 5 from them since Saturday. Then for 4 games, they host the team with the NL's best record- the Cubs, before finishing up at home against the Marlins. It crazy to think it could happen again this year, but I don't see the Phillies squandering their lead, small as it is. But that doesn't mean the Mets will be golfing in October. They'll just need some help from the NL Central.

In that division, the Cubs all-but have it locked up. But the real drama surrounds the Wild Card. And what's interesting is- nobody seems to want it. The Brewers lost one of C.C. Sabathia's starts last night for just the second time since acquiring him (which is also their 5th loss in a row) and are now a half game behind New York (losers of 3 in a row) for the Wild Card. Houston (losers of 3 in a row) is now 3 back, and the Cardinals (losers of 6 in a row) and Marlins (winners of 6 in a row) are teetering on the brink of elimination as they sit 5 back. Milwaukee has 2 more at Chicago, 3 at Cincinnati, then 3 at home with Pittsburgh and 3 at home with those Cubs again. They're 9 back of the Cubs right now, so all those late-season games with the division leader are more of a punishment than an opportunity to make up ground. The 'Stros are on the road with the Fish, then close with 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 versus Cincinnati and 3 versus Atlanta. St. Louis, like the Mets, picked a bad time to hit the skids because the rest of their schedule is significantly harder than the stretch they're in right now. They have 2 more at Cincinnati, 3 at Chicago, 4 at home with Arizona (which will likely be must-wins for both teams) and finally 3 at home with the Reds. Getting swept at Pittsburgh last week killed them. As for the hot Marlins, don't count them out yet- but it's hard to imagine them continuing their "2007 Rockies" act much longer. They have 2 more with Houston (they could move into 3rd place in the Wild Card if they win both of these), then they host the Phillies, visit the Reds for one, then end up at the Reds and at the Mets. Wouldn't it be crazy if the Marlins ended the Mets season, in New York, again in 2008? This race is a bit too close to call at the moment, but with C.C. and Ben Sheets getting the ball for 5 of the Crew's last 11, I like their odds.

Out West, it's much less complicated. The Dodgers are up 4.5 games with 11 to play, and those 11 are against the Pirates, Giants, and Padres. The division is theirs to lose. Arizona's pair of extra inning losses with the Reds sting a little bit extra now, especially on the heels of being swept in L.A. And even with Webb and Haren seemingly back on track, they'll need to win just about all of their remaining 12 games to make the postseason.

Awards, Still Watching And Waiting

2008-09-16T07:24:00.008-04:00

At this time last year, just about all of the major awards were either completely decided, or down to a two-man race. A-Rod, we all knew, was going to breeze to the AL MVP. Jake Peavy, we all knew, was going to breeze to NL Cy Young Award. And for awards like AL Cy Young, NL MVP and NL ROY, it was basically a voter coin-flip between, respectively, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett, Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

If it was just that easy last year, it's just that hard this year because for a number of big awards, there is still no clear-cut favorite even though most teams have a little more than 10 games to play. That said, I'll start with some easy ones, like AL Cy Young. Cliff Lee and his baseball-leading win total and ERA should trump Roy Halladay for AL Cy Young, although it's worth pointing out Halladay has many more K's, a slightly better WHIP, a lower batting average against, and has been getting a run and a half less support than Lee all season.

For AL ROY, I'm still giving the nod to Evan Longoria, although this vote won't be as lopsided as it appeared a few weeks ago. Longoria has just 11 at-bats since August 8th because of an injury and in that time, his team's lead in the East has slipped from 3.5 games down to percentage points. Still, he's hitting, hitting for power, and playing great defense at third. That's not to take away from Jacoby Ellsbury who is closing in on 50 steals and 90 runs scored for the Sox, but I think Longoria is the more complete player right now.

And for NL ROY, Geovanny Soto (who really only has competition from Joey Votto of Cincinnati) should win this award unanimously. His OPS is .872, he has 58 extra base hits, and he's the All-Star backstop on the NL team with the best record.

Here's where it gets tricky...AL MVP. At the break, it looked like somebody from Texas was going to win this- either Ian Kinsler or Josh Hamilton. The problem now is, Kinsler hit under .260 in 120 post ASB at-bats before being shut down for the season following hernia surgery. And Hamilton, who's currently tied for the big league RBI lead, has seen his run production slow significantly from his torrid pre-break pace. That's allowed others to begin to enter the discussion, including Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Grady Sizemore.

Personally, I eliminate Quentin right off the bat because he broke his own hand on a bat in early September in the midst of a peannant race. I don't care if he is leading the AL in homeruns, I can't think of what's less valuable than that. Nobody has more RBI than Morneau, he has 3 more strikeouts than walks, and even though he's slowed in the second half too, his numbers close and late, with men on, and with men in scoring position are all excellent. Pedroia and Youkilis will likely hurt each other in the voting, although they've been the most consistent Sox hitters all year. Pedroia leads the AL in runs, has hit over .350 in the second half, his pressure splits (runners on, close and late) are very good, you have to love the 48 walks and 48 strikeouts, he plays a marvelous second base, and you might be surprised to learn he has more extra base hits than both Manny and A-Rod. Youkilis has more extra base hits than Pedroia to go along with 100+ RBI. His OPS is 4th in the AL, and his splits, while not quite as good as Pedroia, are still excellent. Then there's a man named Grady who will end up as the only 30-30 guy in the AL this year. The 93 walks are great and he's third in the AL in extra base hits. But he's slowed way down in the second half, his splits are good but not great, and he's not on a contender. If I had to vote today, I'd go...Morneau, Pedroia, Youkilis, Hamilton, Sizemore.

It gets even messier in the NL because it raises the question of exactly where astronomically productive mid-season acquisitions should fit into the discussion of awards that measure a full season's production in one league. With NL MVP, clearly Albert Pujols and his MLB-best 1.115 OPS is having another extraordinary year (not to mention the fact that he's doing it with one elbow). Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Ryan Braun...they've all put up unbelievable numbers too. Then there's Manny. And to use a tired phrase, he's just being Manny again. Since switching leagues and joining the Dodgers 42 games ago, he's hitting .395 with 14 homeruns, 43 RBI, 29 runs scored, and a 1.221 OPS. And perhaps more convincing, his team went from being 2 back in the NL West to 4.5 up in the NL West! But what about the 100 games where he was in the other league? That's more than 60% of the season. Does that count for nothing? Complicating matters even further is C.C. Sabathia. Not only is he a pitcher (and thus, according to some, not a viable MVP candidate) but he too is a mid-season league changer. But he's also been a game-changer. In his 13 starts for the Brewers, he's 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, a nearly 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and Milwaukee is 12-1 in those games. Can a player be more valuable than that? When he pitches, his team wins 92% of the time! Then again, he also made 18 starts for the Indians, which for a starting pitcher, accounts for slightly more than half a season.

And if you don't like Sabathia for MVP, how about Cy Young? There, he's competing against a smaller field of worthy candidates, but Tim Lincecum (17 wins, ML-best 237 K's, NL-best 2.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (NL-best 20 wins and unlike Lincecum, in a playoff chase) are stiff competition.

My feeling is, as good as Ramirez has been, there are other NL hitters who've (a) been in the league all season and (b) been as hot as Manny for as long of a stretch, like, for example, Mr. Pujols (see April and May, or the month of August). He's kept his team in the race (along with the help of Ryan Ludwick) a lot longer than they should have hung around, he's hitting over .370 in the second half, his splits are great, and his OPS is silly. It's almost 80 points higher than anyone else in baseball.

For Cy Young, Lincecum's numbers are by far the most superior of the group, but his team is 10 games back and really hasn't factored into the playoff picture all season. In other words, are his numbers worth inherently less than the numbers of a playoff-bound, or playoff-pushing pitcher? They just might be. Then again, Cy Young tends to focus more on the pitcher and not his team. That's why, no matter what happens, I think Lincecum should win this award.

But that doesn't mean C.C. gets shut out. By my math, he has 3 starts left this season, two of which will come against the division leading Cubs, and one of which will be on the second-to-last game of the season. If he wins all three he'd finish 12-0 with an ERA right around 2.00. If that happens, and the Brewers make the playoffs, I don't see how you give the MVP to somebody else. He will have been a Brewer for half the season, he will have put this team on his back and gotten them into the playoffs (again, if he finishes 3-0, the Crew will be 15-1 in his starts). No other NL player will have had such a meaningful impact on his team in 2008. Of course, if he gets bombed tonight, all bets are off. But somehow, I doubt that's going to happen.

Howie Mandell Would Be Proud...

2008-07-31T18:35:00.004-04:00

...Because there have been more big deals this month involving big names, All-Stars, and future Hall of Famers than I can remember taking place in such a short period of time.

Consider this.

As of tomorrow, C. C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, Xavier Nady, Mark Teixeira, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez will all be wearing different uniforms than they were wearing on July 1st. And that's not including less exciting players like Joe Blanton, Damaso Marte, Casey Kotchman, Casey Blake, Kyle Farnsworth, Arthur Rhodes, Craig Hansen, and Andy LaRoche.

What else is interesting is that after all the chatter surrounding closer/set-up types like Huston Street, Brian Fuentes, and George Sherill, they're all staying put.

One last thought. With the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Marlins and Dodgers all making deadline moves, you wonder what will happen to contending teams that decided to stand pat, like Tampa, Minnesota, New York, St. Louis, and Arizona. Just because you make a trade doesn't mean you're automatically going to start winning. But if teams like the Rays, Mets, Cards and D-Backs fade in the season's final two months, they might wish they had made a move, come October.

Things Just Got Interesting

2008-07-26T04:43:00.003-04:00

Wow, talk about story lines in the AL East.

The Rays snapped their 7-game road losing streak in Kansas City and now lead the Sox by a full game...the Sox got David Ortiz back after a nearly two-month absense but still got shut out by the Yankees 1-0...and during the game the Yankees pulled off a 6-player trade acquiring Xavier Nady (a much-needed righty bat) and Damaso Marte (a much-needed lefty reliever) from Pittsburgh.

Oh, by the way...the Rays, Sox, and Bombers are now separated by just 3 games. Tampa and New York each have 60 games remaining and Boston has 58.

Now the question is, which team (or teams if Minnesota, Texas, Detroit, Oakland, or Toronto get hot...they're all within 7.5 of the Wild Card) will be on the outside looking in come October? Does Tampa have enough experience and offense to finish strong? Will Boston's bullpen hold up and will its lineup wake up? And can New York recover from its litany of injuries and continue to ride Moose and Joba to a 14th straight playoff appearance?

I think most people were expecting August and September to be a dogfight in the AL East, but I don't think too many were expecting a third pooch in the ring.

A Manny Ramirez Fact Very Few People Know

2008-07-22T18:26:00.006-04:00

So, apparently one of my friends picked the music Manny Ramirez has played when he comes to the plate during home games.

Impossible you say? Think again.

For the seven of you who are loyal Basebloger readers, you'll recall my trip to Fenway a month ago. During that post, I mentioned how I thought it was odd that out of every song on the planet, Manny strides to the plate to "Zombie" by the Cranberries. I assumed it would be some Latin song, or perhaps a rap song, but not a 1995 chart-topper by an Irish alt-rock band. Well, now I know why.

The story begins with a guy by the name of Scott Rosier. He works in sales for the Baltimore Orioles, and I know him through fantasy baseball. Despite how he looks in this Mustache Day 2008 picture (courtesy of "It's Not Wrong") he is neither a professional wrestler, police officer, or serial killer.

So apparently Scott was pretty chummy with the guy who is in charge of music at Camden Yards. One night they were out at a bar when Scott suggested to the guy that he play "Zombie" whenever the opposing team's pitching coach visited the mound (playing off the "in your head" lyrics). The guy loved the idea and the story goes, he immediately put it to practice while the Red Sox were in town.

Prepare yourself, because this is where the story gets fantastic.

It's the middle innings. Manny's in left, and his pitcher is in a jam, so the Sox pitching coach heads to the mound when the song comes over the PA system. Apparently (although not surprisingly, given Manny's penchant for becoming distracted at crucial points in a baseball game) he was simply mesmerized by what he heard...so much so that the next day, he actually went into the O's clubhouse, tracked down the team's music guy and asked what the song was because he absolutely loved it (and he communicated all this in Spanglish, mind you). Well, the guy ended up burning Manny a CD of "Zombie" which he proceeded to take back to Fenway and it's been his "now batting" music ever since.

That, my friends, is a story.

It's In The Books

2008-07-14T04:37:00.004-04:00

The first half is officially over and things are starting to return to normal. Chipper Jones is no longer flirting with .400 and the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer in first place in the AL East. Still, a lot can happen in the final 65-or-so games of the '08 season and many of the major awards races are still really close. But at this point, these guys have the upper hand...

AL MVP - Josh Hamilton (.310, 21 homeruns, 95 RBI)

I had to count some dangling chads on this one, because Hamilton and teammate Ian Kinsler are separated by an even smaller margin than Dubbya and Al Gore were in 2000. Both hitters are to thank for a surprisingly good Texas team, which enters the break above .500. Both have been incredible run producers, and both have been good in the clutch. I'm giving the edge to Hamilton though because in my opinion it's inherently harder to drive in runs than to score runs. Good pitchers bear down with men on base and in scoring position and bad pitchers pitch around the middle of the order. But no pitcher has been able to contain Hamilton, who enters the break on pace to drive in 162 runs this season. Only 11 players in major league history have driven in more in a single season and with the exception of Manny Ramirez in 1999, all of them played before 1938. That's how prolific Hamilton's been. That's why he's my mid-season MVP. Also receiving votes: Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez (.311, 23 homeruns, 80 runs, 23 steals)

What doesn't this guy do well? The answer is...not much. He's one of just two players at the break with 20+ homeruns and 20+ steals (a man named Grady is the other). He has more bombs, steals, and runs scored than Lance Berkman (and is on a competitive team) and has a higher average, more runs, and more steals than Chase Utley. At the beginning of the season, I was guilty of thinking that without Miguel Cabrera, Ramirez's numbers would drop off a bit. I won't make that mistake again. Also receiving votes: Berkman, Utley, Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)

Perhaps this is my Oakland bias shining through here. Or perhaps it's the fact that I like pitchers who don't allow baserunners. JD's WHIP is silly. A starter allowing 6 baserunners for every seven innings pitched is absolutely unheard of these days. And if you want further proof that he's been the best of the best, look at his game log. His "worst" outing of the year is either his May 18 start in Atlanta (3 earned over 5) or his May 1 start in LA (6 runs, but only one earned over 5, in a win against the Angels). Who cares if he doesn't get many strikeouts? His stuff is dirty. Also receiving votes: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera

NL Cy Young - Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29 ERA, 126 K's)

Talk about your classic case of "boy, that trade sure benefitted both teams," Volquez has been to the Reds what Josh Hamilton has been for the Rangers. He's leading the league in ERA, he's second in wins, and he's tied for third in K's. And you thought we'd be saying that about Johan Santana this time of year? Also receiving votes: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb

AL ROY - Evan Longoria (.275, 16 homeruns, 53 RBI)

As good as advertised, if not better. He's become Delmon Young before Delmon Young has become Delmon Young. Plus he runs a little bit (6 steals), plays a magnificent third base, and was selected to the All-Star game after just 300 big league at-bats. Not bad. Also receiving votes: Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy

NL ROY - Geovanny Soto (.288, 16 homeruns, 56 RBI)

So Evan Longoria is an All-Star, huh? That's nice. Soto is an All-Star starter! He's far and away the cream of the NL newbie crop, and he's leading all rookies in OPS on a first-place team. The one chink in his armor? He's only thrown out 15 of 58 base stealers- third worst for qualifying NL catchers. As long as he keeps raking, I'm sure the Cubbies will deal with it. Also receiving votes: Kosuke Fukodome, Jair Jurrjens

AL LVP - Paul Konerko (.217, 9 homeruns, 34 RBI)

Yes, he's missed about 25 games. But the White Sox have missed his big bat in the other 68 he's actually played in. I was about to write that PK is a guy who's been a lock for 35 and 100+ batted in for the last few years, but that's actually not true. His homerun total will likely drop for a 4th straight year this season, his average- for a third straight year, and his RBI total- for a second straight year. These are surprising trends for a guy who turned just 32 in spring training. Also receiving votes: Robinson Cano. Edgar Renteria, Chone Figgins

NL LVP - Andruw Jones (.164, 2 homeruns, 10 RBI)

Usually, I don't like to give these awards to guys who've been hurt, but Jones has redefined what it means to be terrible. During a 7-year stretch from 2000 to 2006, he averaged more than 37 homeruns and 109 RBI a season. Last year when he fell off to 26 and 94 with a .222 average, I thought it was an abberation and so did the Dodgers. Now, I'm not so sure because he looks so absolutely clueless at the plate. Case and point- he's striking out once every 2.8 at bats this year and has twice as many wiffs as hits! He'll be a free agent at the end of the year and his list of potential suitors will be exponentially smaller than everyone would have imagined just a few years ago. Like Konerko, his rapid decline is also surprising considering he's just 31. Also receiving votes: Eric Byrnes, Ryan Zimmerman, Khalil Greene

AL Cy Anora - Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)

At the beginning of the season the thinking was, the A's would try to move Blanton, a useful innings eater, to a playoff contender right around the trade deadline. Now, they'd probably have a hard time trading him for a bucket of pearls and an L-screen. Blanton, while still making all his starts, has been remarkably hittable this season, although it's worth noting his secondary numbers from his '08 campaign are strikingly similar to his '06 campaign when he won a career-high 16 games. That ain't gonna happen this time around. And with all the young arms in Oakland (Sean Gallagher, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez) JB's days as a starter in the Bay Area may be limited. Also receiving votes: Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez

NL Cy Anora - Aaron Harang (3-11, 4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)

Harang was one of the few guys in baseball who has been consistentlty good, consistently healthy, and consistently unnoticed for the last few years. Unfortunately all three of those are out the window this year. He's on the DL now with a bad forearm. It's going to take a miracle for him to get to .500. And he's unlikely to hit 200 K's or 200 IP for the first time since 2005. Oh by the way, he's already allowed 20 homeruns. Also receiving votes: Barry Zito, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo (huh, maybe that's why the Reds are so bad), Roy Oswalt

C.C. And Richie Rich

2008-07-09T05:18:00.005-04:00

With the trade deadline still 22 days away, we've already seen two potentially race-changing deals involving two potential Game 1 World Series starters...C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers for slugging outfielder Matt LaPorta and 3 other prospects, and Rich Harden to the Cubs along with reliever Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher and 3 other prospects.

The Cubs were the better team before these deals were completed and because they made a better trade than Milwaukee did, should be the better team the rest of the season (and next year).

Yes, Harden carries an injury risk. But ever since missing a month with a strained shoulder muscle, he's been healthy, he's been as good as anybody, and in general his ceiling is much higher than Sabathia's. True, Sabathia is the reigning Cy Young award winner and true, he is a workhorse, but all things being equal, Harden has Santana-esque stuff without Santana-esque mileage on his arm, whereas Sabathia is "7 innings pitched, 3 earned, 7 K's, 2 walks" good.

Another reason the Cubs made the better trade is because, unlike Sabathia, they're not renting Harden for the next 2 and a half months. Harden's deal doesn't expire until 2009 and being the bigger-market team, the Cubs have a much better chance of re-upping with him than the Brew-Crew does with Sabathia.

And the final reason the Cubs made out better is because unlike Milwaukee, they didn't give up any front-line prospects to make their move. Matt LaPorta could be a poor man's Ryan Braun, and soon. Add him to Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, and Cleveland's lineup could be in pretty good shape for the forseeable future. The Cubs gave up Gallagher, speedster Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson- none of whom were big pieces of the Chicago puzzle this year, although Gallagher has the best pedigree.

That's not to say that the A's got a bunch of chumps, though. In Gallagher, they get a strikeout-an-inning guy who will likely benefit from his move to the pitcher-friendly Bay Area. Patterson may take over for Mark Ellis in a year or so, Murton gives them a strong arm and bat to play alongside youngsters Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez in the Oakland outfield, and Donaldson is still a few years away.

Say what you will about "Moneyball" and Billy Beane. But as an A's fan, I definitely don't hate this trade. Beane has a knack for getting rid of good pitchers at just the right time. For proof, see Mulder, Mark...Hudson, Tim...and Zito, Barry. He got good value for each of those guys, as he did for Dan Haren last winter. Now, he sells Harden when he's healthy and his value is at its highest and although he didn't get a blue-chip prospect, he did get four serviceable players in return.

What'll be really interesting to see now is (a) if Oakland moves any other players (Huston Street?, Joe Blanton?) and (b) if St. Louis makes any moves in the next 3 weeks to keep up with the Joneses in the division. After all, they're just 3.5 back (a half game up on the Brewers) and starting to get their pitchers healthy.

One final thought. What's going through your head if you're a hitter on the lowly Reds, Pirates, or Astros right now?

Just My Latest Jinx

2008-06-30T07:38:00.007-04:00

If you recall, I priased Jay Bruce's hot start back on June 2nd. At the time, he had an OPS approaching 1.700 and a 1:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first six major league games.

My how times have changed.

His OPS has dropped 900 points, his strikeout-to-walk has done a virtual 180 (it's now 2.5:1), and in the 26 games since my post, he has just three multi-hit efforts.

For further perspective, consider this. The upper line shows Bruce's pre-post numbers. The lower line shows how he's fared post-post (which is a funny compound word).

13 for 22 (.591), 10 runs, 5 XBH, 6 RBI, 6 walks, 1 strikeout

21 for 97 (.216), 8 runs, 5 XBH, 8 RBI, 7 walks, 32 strikeouts

What's ironic about all this is that "the real" Jay Bruce is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of where he is right now with his torrid and frigid stretches included. Over 600 AB's it works out to roughly a .286, 20 homerun, 71 RBI, 91 run, 10 steal season...not bad even for a highly-touted 21-year-old. I just wish I could use my powers for good rather than evil.

I Guess I've Officially Taken Sides

2008-06-26T16:21:00.005-04:00

My wife and I are in Boston right now, visiting friends. It's my first time in New England in years, and last night, my first-ever trip to Fenway Park. And I think I can sum up the experience in one word, "wow."

First of all, we show up around 5 o'clock- two hours before first pitch. And yet, the whole area outside the ballpark is absolutely packed. Yawkey Way, the shops, the sports bars...all jam-packed...and it's a random Wednesday in late-June.

We ate at "Game On!" and there was an hour wait to be seated, which was no problem because there was plenty of space in their standing-room-only section (although it made eating nachos interesting). Another thing that struck me inside the bar was the number of people in Red Sox jerseys or some type of Red Sox attire in general. With only a handful of exceptions, literally every person in there (again, we're talking I-sure-hope-there-isn't-a-fire-in-the-kitchen-because-someone's-getting-trampled-if-we-all-have-to-evacuate crowded) had on some sort of Sox stuff. Having grown up near Baltimore going to Camden Yards, this was a completely new phenomenon to me.

We finished our meal right around first pitch and made our way over to the park right at 7:05 to see Randy Johnson vs. Tim Wakefield, or as our friend Dave (aka Ezekiel) put it, AARP night. We had very good seats on the third base side of home plate a few sections up and I'll say this about the two hurlers. Johnson can still bring it and Wakefield's stuff breaks about 3 feet. The Big Unit was at 91-92 the whole night but hit 94 a few times later in the game and looks like he's 8 feet tall on the mound. Meanwhile, T-Dub threw one curveball that was 59 miles an hour and made, among others, Connor Jackson look like he was hitting a high-arc softball pitch for the first time ever. Oh, by the way, his knuckler is good too.

Next, to the player introductions, because a few of them were funny. Manny Ramirez (who I'm told came up to Afroman's "Because I Got High" a few seasons ago), chose "Zombie" by the Cranberries. Seriously. Every time #24 and his halfway-down-his jersey-dreads sauntered to the plate, some lady was singing "in your heaaaa-d, in your he-ah-ah-ed...zombie! zombie!" Weird. My favorite had to be Dustin Pedroia's plate music, "Dre. Day" by Dr. Dre. First of all, great song. Second of all, really funny for a balding, white, 5-foot-tall middle infielder.

As for the game, the Sox got some contributions from some unlikely places- Coco Crisp, Brandon Moss, and Kevin Cash, whose 3-run blast in the 8th all-but put it out of reach. Craig Hansen started the 9th and was wild, so with two outs and the bases loaded in a 5-0 game, Terry Francona came out to the mound to summon Jonathan Papelbon, whose face is in every Dunkin Donuts shop in New England. As soon as he started to walk in from the bullpen, they played "Wild Thing" by Steppinwolf and I have to admit, I kind of wished he had summoned me to come in and pitch. I was so pumped up, I think I probably could have touched 90 on the gun. Anyway, Papelbon got loose to "Shipping Up To Boston" by the Dropkick Murphys, the song he made famous during last season's playoffs. Then he struck out poor Chad Tracy on a series of 97 mile an hour fastballs. Poor guy didn't have a chance. Then, shocker, Fenway Park and it's nearly 40-thousand fans who all stayed until the last out, went nuts.

We visited the team shop after the game just for fun and it, too, was packed! Our friend Monica ended up buying a pink Red Sox thong for a friend's upcoming bachelorette party (sure it was for a friend, Mon) which was also funny. Then we left.

So getting back to the title of this post. I've never been to Yankee Stadium. But I don't think I can imagine a better environment to watch a baseball game than Fenway. Maybe it's the same in the Bronx as it was here last night, but I find it hard to imagine. And although I'm still officially an Oakland A's fan, I must consider myself leaning Massachusetts in the whole Yanks/Sox rivalry, largely thanks to my experiences last night.

Time To Go Closet-Digging

2008-06-21T04:54:00.004-04:00

Remember these from 1993? The All-Star game is in Baltimore. Cito Gaston is managing the AL. Mike Mussina is sitting in the bullpen, waiting, waiting, waiting, but never gets called on to pitch. Gaston, instead, uses his own closer, Duane Ward to finish off the NL. T-shirts are promptly born.

Well, he's back, so I'd expect these shirts to start popping up all over Charm City too, especially July 21-24 when the Jays come to town.

I'll say this. I had no idea the O's were 4.5 games up on Toronto for 4th place in the AL East and just a game back of the Yankees for 3rd. Impressive!

Being Curt About Schilling

2008-06-20T11:26:00.005-04:00

Right shoulder surgery will end Curt Schilling's 2008 season before it ever started, and it may end his career. That's all according to #38 himself. Assuming he has thrown his last pitch (personally I think it's too early to say he has) let's examine his Hall-of-Fame resume so far.

His 3,116 career strikeouts are good for 14th all-time. There are four people ahead of him who aren't Hall of Famers, although Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux will be five years after they retire. Roger Clemens is the third, and he's anyone's guess. The fourth is Bert Blyleven and he has nearly 600 more.

What Schilling really lacks is an impressive number of regular season wins, largely due to injuries and his decade spent in Philadelphia. His 216 W's don't even put him in the top-75. He's in Charlie Hough/Kenny Rogers/Kevin Brown territory with that win total, although there are more than a dozen pitchers who got into the Hall with even fewer victories.

He won 20 or more three times. That's also good, but not great. And the fact that he was never a Cy Young Award winner doesn't help either, although he was runner-up on three separate occasions and finished fourth in the voting another time. He appeared in six All-Star games, but never more than three in a row, so he wasn't exactly a staple there.

Up until this point, I'd say he's a long-shot for Cooperstown. But what I haven't mentioned is what's he done in October. And what he's done in October has been exceptional. He has three World Series rings, an 11-2 career postseason record, 2.23 postseason ERA, and 120 strikeouts in 133 1/3 IP. His totals for wins, winning percentage, strikeouts, and innings pitched all rank in the top-10 all-time, meaning it is not unreasonable to make the argument that Schilling has been one of the best postseason pitchers ever. And it is for that reason that I think Schilling deserves a place in the Hall.

He may not be a first-ballot guy. And he may not be on the level of contemporaries Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz or Rivera, but Schilling still deserves a spot, even if he never throws another pitch.

Statistical Oddities

2008-06-11T04:21:00.005-04:00

Today is June 11. Most teams have played about 65 games, meaning we're roughly 40% through the 2008 regular season. Yet, there's still some awfully weird stuff happening, aside from the fact that Tampa has a 3.5 game lead over Oakland for the AL Wild Card.

Here are a few of my favorite examples...

*Milton Bradley, a career .278 hitter, has the highest batting average in the American League (.338).

*In nearly 220 at-bats, Chipper Jones is still hitting .420. He needs to hit approximately .387 the rest of the season to finish up at .400.

*The top 2 pitchers in the AL in wins right now (Cliff Lee and Joe Saunders) already have more wins this season than they did all of last season.

*Entering this season, Edinson Volquez had given up 64 earned runs in 80 career innings. This season, he's given up 14 earned runs in 81 innings, en route to the lowest ERA (1.56) in baseball.

*Ryan Howard has 38 more strikeouts (89) than hits (51).

*Miguel Cabrera is tied for 29th in the league in homeruns, 17th in RBI, and 32nd in batting average. Last year he was 5th, 3rd, and 8th.

*Adam Dunn and Jack Cust are hitting .240 and .247 respectively but their on base percentages are .406 and .407 respectively!

*Four of the top-10 strikeout pitchers in baseball (Sabathia, Harang, Billingsley, Burnett) have losing records.

*Jacoby Ellsbury has more walks than strikeouts and more steals than RBI.

*Joey Votto is on pace to commit 20 errors this season at first base. Kevin Youkilis has one error at first base in 185 games over the last two seasons.

*And perhaps my favorite...Nate McLouth has more extra base hits this season (37) than every single All-Star from 2007 except Chase Utley (41).

Johnny On The Spot

2008-06-06T10:26:00.003-04:00

Even though his team is playing more than 1200 miles away in Texas, I'd be willing to bet if there's a brawl in tonight's Orioles/Blue Jays game in Toronto, Jonny Gomes will find a way to be in it. After all, he manages to be a part of every other fight.

He's #31 in the picture above, pounding on Coco Crisp, who charged the mound after being plunked by James Shields, who hit Crisp because Crisp (in the minds of most members of the Rays) slid in too hard on Akinori Iwamura in Wednesday night's game, who is coincidentally the same guy victimized by a hard slide in spring training by New York Yankee Shelly Duncan, a slide which prompted another brawl, which also featured Gomes (got all that?).

After hearing about the brawl in the car last night, my initial reaction was that the Rays (in a Teddy KGB voice from the movie "Rounders") "von't be pooshed a-round" anymore...that their newfound aggressiveness and penchant for fisticuffs are somehow derived from a decade of doormat-dom. Turns out, I'm right. Quoting Shields, "We've been getting stomped around the last 10 years and it isn't going to happen anymore."

Jonny Gomes will probably try to sucker-punch me for saying this but Shields wasn't on the 63-99 Tampa team from 1998 (led by Fred McGriff and Rolando Arrojo). He was a 16-year-old attending Hart High School in Santa Clarita, Calirfornia, where he was most likely not a Rays fan.

With Apologies To Jay Bruce Owners...

2008-06-02T17:31:00.003-04:00

Sorry, but I'm about to jinx the heck out of your boy.

In his first 6 games, JB has 13 hits, 6 walks (compared to just one strikeout), 3 doubles, 2 homeruns, 6 RBI, 2 stolen bases, he's scored 10 times, and his OPS is 1.690.

Over the remainder of this season, that projects to a .591/37/111 line with 185 runs scored, 56 doubles, 37 steals, and 111 walks. Oh, and he's been able to legally purchase alcohol for 2 months.

Does anybody know why Dusty Baker stuck with Corey Patterson as long as he did?

I Love This Kid

2008-05-31T18:11:00.004-04:00

Yes, I'm still alive and so, apparently, is the good 'ol Baseblogg. That's why I wanted to make my comeback post about "The Kid," Ken Griffey Jr. and his pursuit of 600 career homeruns.

Here's a guy who, in an era where seemingly everybody is tainted by steroid suspicion, has been remarkably productive and remarkably free from controversy. Yes, he was Mr. Glass from 2001 to 2006, missing an average of 70 games a season. There's no question that lost time has kept him from joining an even more elite class of players, a class he was seemingly destined for in the 90s. Based on his career averages, he lost about 100 dingers to those injuries, meaning, if healthy, he would be one away from 700, not 600.

Either way, when you look at the players who have made it close to, or surpassed 600 recently (Bonds, Sosa, and Palmeiro), it'll be nice to have an undeniably legit one in the group. I just hope it's soon.

Closing Time

2008-04-03T10:00:00.004-04:00

The Nationals are undefeated. The Tigers are winless. It's early. But if there's been any theme at all these first few days of '08, it's been late-game meltdowns by "closers." I use quotation marks because there's a decent shot many of these guys will be middle relievers by the All-Star break.

Last night, Trevor Hoffman picked up right where he left off in '07, giving up 3 of his 4 runs on a Lance Berkman homerun, en route to a 9-6 Padres loss. Also last night, Brandon Lyon entered the 9th against the Reds with a 5-3 lead, but didn't retire a batter before giving up a 3-run walk-off to Edwin Encarnacion.

The night before that, Josh Hamilton took J.J. Putz deep for what proved to be a 2-run game winner. The M's promptly placed Putz on the DL with inflamed cartilage near his ribcage.

Monday, we saw a pair of "closers," Kerry Wood and Eric Gagne, give up 3-spots in the top and bottom halves of the 9th. The 0-2 Cubs proved their bullpen is, in fact, worse, when Bob Howry allowed another run in the top of the 10th, and the Brew-crew won 4-3. And perhaps the most Chernobyl-esque meltdown came in Philadelphia, courtesy of the never-reliable Tom Gordon. Flash gave up 5 runs on just 20 pitches to the jugger-not Washington offense as the Phils lost 11-6.

That's six multi-run 9th-inning implosions in just 35 games played, and it's not even counting Huston Street's blown save in Japan, or Jon Rauch's blown-save-turned-win Sunday night after Ryan Zimmerman's walk-off. The only reason Rauch was in the game was because Chad Cordero hurt himself warming up and hasn't pitched yet.

There's no way to know if this trend will continue, or for how long. But I do know this. San Diego, Arizona, Seattle, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia need to have a steady 9th inning man or they'll all miss the playoffs. There's just too much talent in their respective divisions.

And So It Begins...

2008-03-31T11:01:00.006-04:00

It's baseball season.

Not just in Japan. Not just in China, Mexico, or another country that isn't spelled A-M-E-R-I-C-A. It's baseball season here, and that's exciting. That's not to say that I object to teams playing regular season games overseas, because I don't. It just makes me a little jealous. But it also makes me feel quite comforted to know that after a tumultuous offseason, the next 7 months will be about walk-offs and wild pitches, not steroids and subpoenas (that said, I did just buy Jose Canseco's new book, although I haven't started reading it yet).

Among today's 14 games, we'll see Johan Santana's New York Mets debut, Erik Bedard's Seattle Mariners debut, Joe Torre's Los Angeles Dodgers debut, and Joe Girardi's New York Yankees debut (along with the last-ever home opener at Yankee Stadium). There are potential pitchers' duels between Brandon Webb and Aaron Harang in Cinncinnati, Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy in San Diego, and Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano in Chicago. We'll get a first look at the new-look, high-octane Detroit offense.

And if last night's US opener (complete with a new ballpark, Presidential first-pitch, and walk-off homerun) is any indicator, this season is going to be another memorable one.

Rich Predictions, With Conditions

2008-03-27T08:15:00.008-04:00

Much to the delight of Oakland fans, and to fantasy owners who took a chance on the oft-injured #40, Rich Harden dazzled in his first start of 2008, limiting the Red Sox to one run (a Manny Ramirez dinger...p.s. this guy is going to have a huge '08) over six innings. He also struck out 9 and earned the win, as the A's split with Boston in Japan.

I know I've said in the past that I think Oakland will lose upwards of 90 games, and I'm not prepared to go back on that after their 1-1 start. But I'm am prepared to make a bold, if not condition-laden, prediction.

#1 If Harden can have a full season (he's never made 32 starts or thrown 190 innings, but based on the fragment seasons he's put together as a starter since 2003, his projected numbers over 34 starts would be...203 IP, 188 K, 88 BB, 1.27 WHIP, .218 BAA... his projected 14-8 record and 3.64 ERA seems conservative based on the other numbers)...

#2 If Bobby Crosby can play in 150 games (he's averaged 106 in each of the last 4 seasons so don't hold your breath)...

#3 If another hitter comes out of nowhere, a-la Frank Thomas '06 and Jack Cust '07, and has a surprise season (Emil Brown appears to be the early front runner with his homerun and 4 RBI through two games)...

#4 If they get contributions from "The Gonzalezes" this year (outfielder Carlos was acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, is drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons, and is Baseball America's #22 overall prospect; lefthanded pitcher Gio was acquired from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, led the minors in K's last year and is BA's #26 prospect)...

#5 If LA's pitching injuries persist (John Lackey's already out for the first month, and Kelvim Escobar's career may be over)...

#6 And if Seattle's pitching falls apart (Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, while full of promise, are not Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling circa 2001, just yet)...

...then the A's could be in the hunt for October all season long. Then again, if very few of the 6 big if's don't pan out, they'll likely battle it out with Texas for the AL West doormat. We'll know more 160 games from now.

Huston, We Have A Problem

2008-03-25T12:29:00.010-04:00

Major League Baseball's regular season is underway in Japan, and it's off to a start Oakland A's closer Huston Street would like to forget. He blew the save in the 9th when he gave up Brandon Moss' first career homerun, a game-tying shot. Then in the 10th, he gave up a 2-run double to Manny Ramirez (Manny's second of the game) and Oakland went on to lose 6-5.

While I'm bashing Street, Jonathan Papelbon's debut in the Far East was nothing to write home about either. He nearly blew the save himself in the bottom of the 10th, allowing a run-scoring double to Emil Brown (Oakland's version of Manny Ramirez, I'm sad to say). The A's actually had the tying run on second and the winning run on first when JP got Kurt Suzuki to ground out, bringing an end to the ballgame.

Game 2 is tomorrow at 6:05 A.M. Eastern and it's an intriguing starting pitching matchup...Jon Lester for the Sox, Rich Harden for the A's. Oakland is still considered the "home" team for that one. After that, the next real game is March 30 when the Braves visit the Nats' new stadium on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. And on Monday, there are 14 regular season games.

Other performances of note from today's game...

Jack Cust, 0-4, 4 K's

Jason Varitek, 0-4, 3 K's

Travis Buck, 0-5, 2 K's

Daric Barton, 0-2, 3 BB, 2 R

Jack Hannahan, 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Dice-K, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K's

Good!

2008-03-14T15:26:00.001-04:00

This seems about right.

Why People Hate The New York Yankees

2008-03-12T16:11:00.008-04:00

"It's just disheartening. It's spring training. I just don't understand. I told all my players to play hard, but when you do something like that you take your chances that you will get someone hurt."

That's what new, New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi said four days ago after a play at the plate where Tampa Bay second baseman Elliot Johnson plowed into Yankees' catcher Francisco Cervelli in the 9th inning (starters no longer in the game), breaking Cervelli's wrist and sidelining him 8-10 weeks in the process. If you've never heard of Johnson or Cervelli before, there's good reason. Combined, they have zero at-bats in the bigs. Johnson just turned 24 and Cervelli just turned 22. Neither were expected to make the team's opening day rosters.

Don Zimmer immediately responded to Girardi's comments, saying they sounded un-Girardi-like.

"You block the plate. If I slide into him and break a leg, nothing is said. Instead of breaking my leg, I bowl him over and it's not the right play? Well, to me it is the right play, spring training, or no spring training. Play the game the right way. To me, our kid played it the way he thought it was right, and I think it was right," Zim said.

And Zimmer is right, especially considering what the Rays are trying to do- have their first winning season in franchise history. You don't accomplish that by letting Girardi's message of "play hard some of the time, just don't get hurt" be your organizational mantra. The Rays don't have New York's history, talent, or budget, so they're going to have to play hard to win. Johnson is trying to make a good impression on his organization by being gritty. Not dirty, gritty. There's a difference. And for that matter, Cervelli was trying to be gritty too, by blocking the plate. Obviously Johnson wasn't trying to break Cervelli's wrist, but that's what happens sometimes when a catcher blocks the plate.

Nevertheless Girardi said there wasn't any bad blood between the two AL East clubs. But it now appears he may come in a close second to former Governor Eliot Spitzer for the title of Biggest Hypocrite in New York.

This was the scene Wednesday in the second inning (mind you, less than 10 outs from the first pitch, starters still playing). Despite being warned before the game, Yankee hurler Heath Phillips (not a candidate for the rotation) drilled Rays' top prospect Evan Longoria with a pitch (the projected opening day third baseman). Phillips was ejected and both dugouts were warned again, but apparently Shelley Duncan (and Girardi, perhaps) didn't get the message, because Duncan went spikes-up into Rays' infielder Akinori Iwamura (another starter). Duncan was ejected, then tackled by Jonny Gomes who came racing in from right field and both benches emptied.

Duncan hinted he was going to do something meat-headed or dirty (not gritty) right after the collision at home a few days ago.

"They showed what is acceptable to them and how they're going to play the game, so we're going to go out there to match their intensity, or even exceed it," he told reporters after Cervelli-gate.

What his quote basically says is, "we're going to exceed their intensity by playing dirty."

A gritty player doesn't need to tell everyone how hard he's going to play, because he just goes out and does it. But that's not what Duncan did because he's a non-starter, goon. He's 6'6'', 225 pounds, 28 years old, and has 74 career at-bats in the majors. If he gets hurt it doesn't matter. So he either took it upon himself to avenge a guy whose name he probably didn't know a month ago, or he was sent in to do his manager's dirty work.

The biggest problem I have here is the fact that Duncan, Girardi, or both, specifically targeted Tampa's starters- Iwamura and Longoria. It wasn't Jorge Posada who got plowed into four days ago. It was a guy who was going to be in high-A ball. That's playing dirty and trying to injure half of Tampa's starting infield.

Collisions at the plate are part of the game. They happen. Nobody scripts them out ahead of time. And in most cases, nobody involved in one does so with malicious intent. A runner wants to score, a catcher wants to tag him out. But throwing at people and going in spikes-high...those actions are just the opposite. They're premeditated, malicious, and dirty.

Thankfully, nobody got hurt during today's exchanges and no punches were thrown. But it will be interesting to see if the Yankees continue to be as petty as they've been so far when these teams hook up in the regular season, April 4 in the Bronx. It was also be interesting to see if Tampa decides to retaliate a little higher up the totem pole...i.e. against one of the Yankees' starters, not Shelley Duncan.

Why I Love Vin Scully

2008-03-11T05:15:00.002-04:00

Why? Because he nicknames pitches, like this filthy hammer from Dodgers' farmhand Clayton Kershaw. I'm not sure what's more entertaining...Sean Casey's knee-buckling, or Scully's reaction to the backwards K.

Andy LaOuch

2008-03-08T08:19:00.004-05:00

Did I say I was going to jinx the L.A. Dodgers or did I say I was going to jinx the L.A. Dodgers?

Just days after predicting they would win the World Series, third baseman and Rookie of the Year candidate Andy LaRoche tore a tigament in his thumb and will miss two months or more. And it was on a totally freak play. There was a rundown, an errant throw, and a riccochet. Interestingly, LaRoche had just entered the game to replace Nomar Garciaparra, who had to leave the game after being hit by a pitch. Luckily for Nomar, his x-rays are negative, and for now, the third base job is his.

So, How's That Rebuilding Going?

2008-03-08T05:28:00.008-05:00

Well let's see, O's fans. Troy Patton, the centerpiece of the Miguel Tejada deal, will miss the entire season with a torn labrum, Daniel Cabrera still can't find the strike zone, Nick Markakis feels like he's not being paid enough, and the Brian-Roberts-to-the-Cubs-deal is going nowhere. Is it 2011 yet?

Playoffs: Something Old, Something New

2008-03-04T06:45:00.005-05:00

Based on my previous predictions for the AL East, AL Central, and AL West, the ALDS matchups would feature the Detroit Tigers (98 wins) as the number one seed against the Seattle Mariners (93 wins), and the Boston Red Sox (97 wins) against the Cleveland Indians (96 wins) in a rematch of last year's ALCS. In the NL, we would see Arizona earn the number one seed (again) and they would take on the Central champion Cubs (again) in the first round, while the other matchup would have the Mets from the NL East taking on the Wild Card winning Dodgers.

I think Detroit's high-octane offense will be too much for Seattle's relatively young and relatively playoff-inexperienced pitching staff. After all, many of Detroit's current hurlers were around when they went to the series in 2006, and newcomer Dontrelle Willis also has playoff experience from the Marlins' championship season of 2003 (albeit dubious playoff experience- an 8.53 ERA and 10 walks in 12 1/3). Simply put, Detroit averages 7 runs a game and wins round 1 in 4 games.

In the other ALDS matchup, I like the Sox to beat the Tribe for much the same reason they dispatched with them 5 months ago- starting pitching. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are two of the best active postseason hurlers. And while I don't expect C.C. Sabathia to look as bad as he did in '07, Cleveland's pitching thins out significantly after the big fella's turn in the rotation. In other words, I'm not a Fausto Carmona believer, just yet. Boston sweeps it, 3-0.

Over in the NL, I like Arizona's dynamic trio (Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson) to prove too much for the Cubs' sluggers, but it won't be easy. Chicago's superior bullpen helps them steal two games when the D-Backs' young hitters stumble in the early innings. The Snakes advance to the NLDS, 3 games to 2.

And finally, in the only upset of the first round, I like the LA Dodgers to knock off the New York Mets 3-1. Johan Santana has proven to be moderately human in October (1-3, 3.97 ERA in 5 starts), while there's no substitute for Joe Torre's calming, been-there-done-that experience in the LA dugout. Nomar Garciaparra delivers a game-winning hit off Billy Wagner in Game 2, and the Mets never recover. LA advances, 3-1.

In the ALCS, we would see, arguably, the best two teams in baseball- the Red Sox and Tigers. Both teams can hit, pitch, close, and play defense. That's why this one is going all 7 games. But in the end, there's just too much Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Fenway Park for Detroit to advance. Good news for the Tigers is, they'll be right back in the thick of it in '09.

And in the NLCS, break out the boys in blue. LA continues on its postseason tear easily dispatching with the D-Backs in 5 games. Their talented and speedy top of the order causes fits for Arizona's pitchers and the Snakes' bullpen coughs up another win in this one.

That leaves us with a Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Dodgers World Series, featuring two of baseball's oldest and most recognizable franchises, and featuring two managers who know each other all-too-well...Terry Francona and Joe Torre. And like the classic Sox/Yankees playoff matchups of recent years, this series doesn't disappoint either. It goes all 7 games, provides us with some memorable moments (20 years to the day, David Ortiz does a reverse Kirk Gibson crushing a walk-off in extra innings in LA...Nomar gets 5 hits at Fenway Park as a DH...and Jonathan Papelbon picks up a 4-inning, 8 strikeout win in relief). But I'm sorry to say Red Sox fans, you won't be popping champagne for the 3rd time in 5 seasons. LA is too balanced, too deep and too well-managed and Vin Scully's boys are champs for the first time since 1988.

How's that for a jinx?

NL West: The Best There Is

2008-02-26T17:58:00.003-05:00

The Arizona Diamondbacks had the best record in the NL in 2007 and enter 2008 having added All-Star Game starring pitcher Dan Haren to a rotation that already boasts Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb. Meantime, Randy Johnson is now throwing to live hitters at spring training as he rehabs from season-ending back surgery last year. And to top it all off, youngsters Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton are all a year older and a year more experienced. And one of these days people are going to appreciate what a good player Eric Byrnes is...some day.

Meantime, the Colorado Rockies went to the World Series last year after winning 21 of 22 games from mid-September on. They enter 2008 with Matt Holliday resigned to a multi-year deal and out to prove he should have been the MVP not Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki out to prove he should have been the Rookie of the Year instead of Ryan Braun, and their only significant losses were Kaz Matsui and LaTroy Hawkins.

The San Diego Padres finished just a game and a half off the pace last year and have swapped Jim Edmonds for Mike Cameron in center field, Tadahito Iguchi for Marcus Giles at second base, and could have the best 1-5 starting rotation in baseball if Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Mark Prior, and Randy Wolf all stay healthy.

The Los Angeles Dodgers still managed to finish above .500 last year and addressed a variety of deficiencies during the offseason. They now have Joe Torre at the helm, Andruw Jones in center and in the middle of the lineup, it appears Rafael Furcal is completely healed from a ankle injury, they'll enjoy the services of youngsters James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andy LaRoche for a full season, plus they've quietly assembled a very respectable starting rotation behind Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, which includes 12-game winner Chad Bilingsley, Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda, and the rehabbing Jason Schmidt as the number 5.

The San Francisco Giants also play in the NL West.

No other division in baseball has four teams that could all legitimately make it to the postseason and that's why the NL West should be as wild as it was last year, when a 1-game, extra-inning affair decided who was going to the NLDS and who was going golfing.

This division is virtually impossible to predict. So instead, here's what has to go right, can't go wrong, or needs to be answered by these teams.

Arizona: Randy Johnson really is a key cog in their whole operation. He needs 16 wins to reach 300 for his career and don't think he doesn't know that. Plus, in light of the whole Roger Clemens/steroids/FBI thing, Johnson has a chance to supplant The Rocket (hard as that was to imagine 4 months ago) as "best pitcher of the generation and one of the best ever" if he reaches that magic plateau. So certainly the motivation is there. But will his body hold up? If it does, the D-Backs will be the favorite to reach, and perhaps win the Series because nobody's beating a rotation of Webb, Haren, and The Big Unit. It's also worth pointing out that Jose Valverde is gone and Brandon Lyon is getting first crack at 9th inning duties. He's tried this before with other teams and failed, so stay tuned.

Colorado: I think the biggest question for the men in purple and black is- are they for real? They were arguably the hottest team in sports history before they ran into a brick wall (Boston) in the Fall Classic. They certainly don't need to have another 21 for 22 stretch, but even after their historic run, there are people who wonder if they can win 11 out of every 20 over a 6 month period. They'll hit for sure, but how good is the rotation (Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jiminez, Jason Hirsh, Franklin Morales) really going to be?

San Diego: In a way, they're the anti-Rockies. They folded down the stretch and pitch well enough to make up for their bad offense. With the fathers, I think Trevor Hoffman is going to play a huge role in their season. Can he still be counted on, close and late? And if not, how long is it going to take to determine, that somebody else needs to close? After all, this guy is an institution with this franchise- their most recognizable player since Tony Gwynn. How do you make him a middle reliever? Aside from Hoff, Prior and Wolf have the opportunity to be saviors or sinners at the back end of their rotation. If they're able to pitch every 5 days, there's no reason each starter can't win at least 12 or 13 games.

Los Angeles: Strange as it seems, I think a lot LA's success will hinge on Rafael Furcal's ability to have a bounce-back season. If he's able to return to his usual 100 runs, 30 steals, .350 OBP, and 45 extra base hits, then many of the other pieces will fall into place. Juan Pierre will be bunting or hitting a lot of groundballs to the right side, and there will be men on base for the heart of the order, which will make it easier for Andruw Jones to go back to being Andruw Jones. And what will LA do with the likes of Andre Either, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche and Nomar Garciaparra? They can't all play.

San Francisco: Hope for big years out of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and a rebound campaign from Barry Zito. Unfortunately, with Aarow Rowand replacing Barry Bonds in this, already feeble lineup, it's not going to matter much.

With all that said, here's my prediction...

Arizona 101-61
Los Angeles 93-69
Colorado 89-74
San Diego 79-83
San Francisco 75-87

NL Central: Options Are Endless

2008-02-22T15:35:00.006-05:00

By my estimate there are three teams that could reasonably win the NL Central this year- the Cubs (who won it last year), the Brewers (who finished just 2 games back last year) and the Reds who finished 13 back. Yes, the Reds.

I'll start with the obvious- Chicago. They trimmed some fat in the offseason, parting ways with Jason Kendall, Mark Prior, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones (none of whom will be particularly missed). In the process, they added a slugging right fielder from Japan (Kosuke Fukodome) and an aging hurler looking to prove he can still be an effective starter (Jon Lieber). Those two may not be Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, but overall, it's a net gain for the Cubs, a team which won 85 games last year. Now to the really good news for the boys in blue. Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano all enter the season poised to play in 150 games apiece, something that hasn't happened while these three righty boppers have been on the same team. Plus, they have promising youngsters Giovany Soto (catcher) and Felix Pie (center) up the middle. And for the first time in a while, they have a seemingly sure-fire option to close- Carlos Marmol. He was filthy out of the pen in 2007 after a miserable 2006 as a starter. His strikeout-to-walk ratio went from 1:1 to almost 3:1 and as a result, he allowed 41 fewer earned runs in 7 2/3 fewer innings. He also held batters to a .169 clip and had 16 holds. Ryan Dempster who? Their starting pitching staff (minus Marmol) remains very solid too. When he keeps his emotions in check, Carlos Zambrano is about as good as they come, Ted Lilly quietly won 15 games with a sub-1.20 WHIP last year, Rich Hill held opponents to a .235 batting average over 32 starts and Jason Marquis even won 12 games.

Milwaukee was oh-so-close last year, but still finished with a winning record for the first time in 15 years. And like the Cubs, Milwaukee is as good, if not better than they were a year ago. They'll have Ryan Braun (now an outfielder) for 162 games. Francisco Cordero is out, Eric Gagne is in at closer. Johnny Estrada is out and Jason Kendall is in behind the plate. Once he returns from his PED suspension, Mike Cameron will play center, shifting Bill Hall back to third base and they added occasionally-reliable relievers Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres. Plus they have this guy named Prince whose dad used to be a big leaguer. He's supposed to be pretty good too. For Milwaukee, their biggest question mark is their starting pitching. Ben Sheets hasn't made 25 starts or thrown 160 innings in a season since 2004. Dave Bush did not have the breakout 2007 many predicted. Jeff Suppan will be a .500 pitcher with a 4.50 ERA no matter where he ends up. Chris Capuano needs to pretend last season never happened, promising rookie Yovanni Gallardo just had minor knee surgery after tearing cartilage, but he's expected to be ready to go by Opening Day, and the Beer Makers need to decide if Carlos Villanueva is better suited for the pen or the rotation. If the stars align, this rotation could be dangerous (a healthy Sheets and Gallardo, Bush breaks out a year late, Capuano returns to his '06 form, and Suppan pitches like it's the '06 postseason). But right now, I have to give the edge to the Cubs.

Then there's Cincinnati. The biggest name they added was Francisco Cordero and the biggest name they lost was Josh Hamilton. Neither is Earth-shattering (although Cordero might help them improve upon their 28 blown saves from last year, second worst in baseball). But it's their farm system's additions to the big club that could (emphasis on could) propel this team into the driver's seat. There are three guys (pitcher Homer Bailey, first baseman Joey Votto, and outfielder Jay Bruce) who could turn a team that went 72-90 in '07, into a team that goes 90-72 in '08. Bailey had a forgettable debut thanks to a groin injury, but may be a bigger talent than Phil Hughes in New York. Votto had an OPS of more than .900 in 84 AB's last year and first base is now his. And while Bruce is blocked in the outfield right now (Griffey, Freel, Dunn), he's being compared to Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence in terms of his instant-impact potential. But then again, he doesn't have a job yet. The Reds have the right pieces in place, though. Aaron Harang is a workhorse. Brandon Phillips went 30-30 last year, Edwin Encarnacion is still young and Griffey and Dunn should hit at least 65 bombs between the two of them. So if their rookies contribute and if Bronson Arroyo gets straightened out, you could be looking at this year's version of the Colorado Rockies.

As for everybody else, a new-look Houston club just will not have the pitching to compete in this division. Roy Oswalt and Four Other Guys won't get it done against the hitters I've already named. Right now, I like their revamped infield with Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui, but between Miggy's PED problems and Matsui's penchant for going belly-up, this could be a disaster by July. Michael Bourne "Ultimatum" should steal a ton of bases and could score a bunch in front of Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman, but not enough to make up for how many runs this team will give up. New closer Jose Valverde won't sniff 47 saves this year. Heck, he might not get 47 chances.

The St. Louis Cardinals are kind of like a bad version of Houston. They have even less pitching (Adam Wainwright is their Opening Day starter), and an offense that isn't nearly as frightening as the 'Stros. Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan may be the least exciting starting outfield in the bigs (although minor leaguer Colby Rasmus could change that quickly). And in the infield, it's Albert Pujols, Troy Glaus and not much more. Thank goodness for the Red Birds, they have Tony LaRussa and...

The Pittsburgh Pirates. The last time they had a winning season, Bill Clinton was elected President, Barry Bonds won his second MVP award, the Washington Redskins were Super Bowl champs, and for the first time ever, Americans bought more CDs than cassette tapes. It was 1992! If there is one safe bet going into 2008, it's that Pittsburgh extends its losing streak to 16 seasons in a row. In 2007, they were 23rd in runs, 25th in OBP, 21st in slugging, 26th in ERA, 21st in quality starts, and 29th in BAA and their biggest offseason acquisitions were Chris Gomez and Byung Hyun-Kim. 82-80? Dream on.

Here's my prediction...

Chicago 88-74
Milwaukee 87-75
Cincinnati 85-77
Houston 70-92
St. Louis 65-97
Pittsburgh 60-102

Poor Bastard

2008-02-22T15:26:00.004-05:00

The link to an article on Francisco Rodriguez's salary arbitration case with L.A. read as follows earlier today on ESPN.com..."K-Rod loses to Angels in arbitration, will get $10M."

I hope I lose that badly some day.

NL East: The Mets Can't Blow It Again This Year, Right?

2008-02-21T11:50:00.005-05:00

Probably not. Then again, that's what everybody said about their 7 game lead with 17 to go back in September and we all know how that one ended. But there's a good reason why they won't close out the season 5-12 this year and miss the playoffs by one game- Johan Santana.

By adding the best pitcher on the planet (sorry Josh Beckett fans), by cutting ties with a no-longer-effective Tom Glavine, and by (hopefully) enjoying Pedro Martinez's services for the entire year, New York's starting pitching should be remarkably better in '08 than it was in '07 (don't forget about John Maine either). At the very least, it should be 2 games better, which would would have been enough to keep the Phillies home in October, rather than the other way around. In addition to adding Johan, New York returns basically the same team that won 88 games a season ago- David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou- they're all still here. They've changed catchers (out goes Paul Lo Duca, in comes Brian Schneider, the net result of which is negligible), and have Ryan Church instead of a combination of Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge in the outfield, so a little speed is gone, but these guys are still going to score a lot and play good defense.

The Phillies will score a ton or runs too, largely thanks to the best offensive infield in baseball. They have arbitration record-setter Ryan Howard at first, Chase Utley at second, reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins at short, and even though they could have Abbott and Costello platooning at third, they have the occasionally useful Pedro Feliz instead. They'll definitely miss Aaron Rowand's glove and bat in the center, which will now be manned by the speedy Shane Victornio, and rightfielder Geoff Jenkins is another newcomer. Brad Lidge will get the first crack at 9th inning duties, but something tells me a homer-prone closer in a homer-prone home ballpark is not a good fit. Having Brett Myers back in the rotation and having Kyle "Thank God I Wasn't Traded To Japan" Kendrick for a full year should help make ace Cole Hamels job a little less stressful. Overall though, I just feel like the Phillies aren't a whole lot better than they were last year (granted they were a playoff team), while the Mets added the biggest prize of the offseason to a team that should have finished in first place to begin with. But if Johan is less-than-spectacular, if Pat Burrell has two halves like his second half, if Lidge is money, and if Howard and Utley both get 600+ ABs, this could be a very interesting race.

The rest of the division lags really far behind these two teams. Atlanta will get a big contract year out of Mark Teixeira, then he'll be a Yankee in '09. The Bravos are replacing Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria with Mark Kotsay and Yunel Escobar. John Smoltz turns 41 in May. Tom Glavine turns 42 in March. And even though Tim Hudson had his best season in 4 years, they still don't have a tested closer. Bobby Cox is a genius, but .500 would be an accomplishment especially considering 22% of their games this season, including 12 of their last 15 are against New York or Philadelphia. It would have been hard to imagine during their run of 14 in a row, but the Braves will miss the playoffs for the 3rd straight time this year.

And in the battle for who wants last place the least, we have the Nationals and Marlins- two teams with virtually anonymous starting pitching staffs, and two teams who will be beaten up time and time again in '08. The Nats have a new ballpark, but basically the same team that lost 89 games last season. Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge are their two most significant new faces. Although Ryan Zimmerman, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns, and possibly even Wily Mo Pena will benefit from Nationals Park's more hitter-friendly environment.

Florida may put more potential talent on the field than Washington this season, but after dealing away Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for, among others, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, this team looks awfully young and awfully inexperienced. Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla are nearly as good an offensive middle infield combo as Rollins and Utley, Jeremy Hermida is showing promise, and Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are serviceable. But this pitching staff simply is not. Their Opening Day starter in '08, Scott Olsen, went 10-15 and allowed almost 16 baserunners per 9 innings last year.

Here's the breakdown...

New York 95-67
Philadelphia 91-71
Atlanta 78-84
Washington 73-89
Florida 70-92

AL West: Flip A Coin

2008-02-20T20:02:00.004-05:00

Seattle or L.A.? L.A. or Seattle? I know this much. One of these teams is winning the division and the other will (likely) miss the playoffs because the Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Tribe should all finish with better records.

So, who's going to be where?

Well, both teams added a big name in the offseason- the Angels when the signed free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter and Seattle when they traded for lefty Erik Bedard. Both teams also added another starting pitcher- Jon Garland went to L.A. and Carlos Silva went to Seattle. And both teams also lost a few key players. L.A. said goodbye to Orlando Cabrera, while Seattle parted ways with Jose Guillen, plus Adam Jones and George Sherrill (to get Bedard). Just for a frame of reference, Seattle finished 6 games back of the Halos last year. They won 88 games to L.A.'s 94.

So taking all that into account, what do you have? Well, in my opinion, you have a Seattle club that's going to be just a little bit better than the Angels for the following reasons. First and foremost- pitching. Bedard and Felix Hernandez have the potential to be the best 1-2 punch in the league. Jarrod Washburn pitched better than his record indicated last year, and even though Miguel Batista was the exact opposite, Silva is better than your average number 5, in that he's an experienced vet. Meantime, with Kelvim Escobar (somehow, an 18-game winner last year) out until at least May with shoulder problems (I suspect he'll stay on the shelf a lot longer), you have an L.A. rotation that will feature John Lackey and Jered Weaver at the front end. Lackey is steady as ever, but Weaver looked a lot more human in '07 than he did in '06. Then you have Jon Garland who was sub-.500 last year with a K:BB of less than 2:1, and Joe Saunders, who's still trying to earn a spot, officially, in the rotation and has never pitched a full season in the bigs. The overall talent level and experience level of these starters is no comparison.

Then there's the offense. Neither club is going to set records, but again I give the nod to the M's. Yes, L.A. scored more runs than Seattle last year, but not by much, and they also lost their top run-scorer, Cabrera, a guy who also hit over .300 and stole 20 bases. True they added Torii Hunter but may actually wish the had O-Cab instead halfway through the season. I guess I've just never been a huge Hunter fan, offensively. Plus, aside from Chone Figgins, L.A.'s infield is very inexperienced (Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and catcher Mike Napoli). It just seems to me this team isn't that much different from last year's, which was Vlad Guerrero and not much else. Seattle seems to be a bit more balanced. They have the best leadoff hitter in the game in Ichiro, potentially dangerous bats in the middle of the order (Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, fresh off a .205 season) and guys who are tough outs (Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Vidro, and Kenji Johjima). We'll see. Another big injury or big trade could shift the balance quite a bit, so anything's possible.

What's not possible though, is Texas or Oakland finishing in first place. For seemingly the 37th year in a row, Texas just doesn't have the pitching. They've completely re-worked their outfield with Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton, and Milton Bradley, plus a lot of people are interested to see what Jarrod Saltalamacchia can do with a full season, and their middle infielders (Michael Young and Ian Kinsler) are quite talented. But they don't have the arms and if you can't pitch, you can't win. Just for fun, I looked this up. Texas hasn't had a starter with an ERA below 4.00 and at least 16 wins in a season since Ken Hill in 1996. Ken Hill. 1996. Eeh.

Then there's Oakland. This year's going to be rough. No Dan Haren, no Nick Swisher, no Mark Kotsay, and no Mike Piazza (not that they got much from him in '07). But they'll look for bounce-back years from Huston Street, Eric Chavez and the oft-injured Bobby Crosby and Rich Harden. And they'll be back and better than ever in a few years (perhaps by 2011 when they're ready to move into their new ballpark). Catcher Kurt Suzuki, first baseman Daric Barton, and outfielders Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in the Dan Haren trade) can all play. But they need hundreds of at-bats first. They also got some really good arms in their firesale- starters Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Fautino de los Santos and reliever Joey Devine. So Oakland fans will have to be patient.

That said, here's my prediction...

Seattle 93-69
Los Angeles 88-74
Texas 74-88
Oakland 69-93

Andy, I Forgive You

2008-02-18T18:14:00.007-05:00

I feel like if more people did what Andy Pettitte did, baseball's steroids problem wouldn't be front-page news every day and it wouldn't be as irritating for fans as it is right now.

Rather than speaking through lawyers, consulting his lawyers before every response, or stumbling through obviously rehearsed talking-points, he gave each reporter who asked him a question at today's press conference, what looked like an honest, straightforward, off-the-top-of-his head answer. And in a way, you almost feel sorry for him. He's been put in an impossible situation between two men he still considers friends. His father's health problems have become common knowledge as a result of all this, his wife has been dragged through all of this, and all because he claims to have taken HGH to get back on the field sooner and justify his big contract, not to break a record or gain a competitive advantage.

In the context of PEDs, people like Andy Pettitte are easy to forgive because he doesn't come across as smarmy, arrogant, or indignant. He came across the way someone caught doing something illegal should feel- contrite, apologetic, and embarrassed. And because he's been up front with everybody, the questions won't linger. Everybody got their answers today and if you have a lick of common sense in you, his answers make sense. So the media will find something else to report on, and Pettitte will go back to being just an important part of the Yankees starting rotation. Funny how that works.

Not So On The Money (Ball)

2008-02-17T18:03:00.007-05:00

I'm as big an Oakland A's fan and Billy Beane fan as there is. Although this season will be painful, I like the fact that he sold high on what talent he had left and reloaded for 2010.

But it's time to face the facts.

Five and a half years after the much-ballyhooed 2002 draft and four years after the release of "Moneyball," the book chronicling Oakland's spendthrift ways and outside-the-box thinking, the seven guys they took in the first round that year, with a few exceptions, weren't all that special.

With the 16th overall pick, they took Nick Swisher...no arguments there. He's a solid player, has 80 career homeruns and a .361 OBP in, what amounts to 3 big league seasons. Plus, his batting average has gone up each year he's been in the league. I hate to see him go to the White Sox, but they got a lot in return for him. High schoolers Cole Hamels, James Loney, and Jeff Francoeur went right after him, though.

With the 24th pick, they took Joe Blanton. He's a solid number 3 starter, but probably will never be an All-Star, probably will never win more than 17 games and probably will never have an ERA below 3.50. He's definitely durable though, having made almost 100 starts in the last 3 years. During that time, he's 8 games over .500 with an ERA just above 4.00. Matt Cain was the next player taken.

With the 26th pick, they took John McCurdy, an infielder from the University of Maryland. He was released by the club last April and had a career .302 OBP in more than 1700 career minor league at-bats, mostly below double-A. A tremendous college player, but not "the next Jeff Kent" as the book predicted.

A few picks later at 30, they took Benjamin Fritz, a pitcher from Fresno State. He went 11-11 at double-A last year with a 5.67 ERA, 88 strikeouts, 68 walks, and 6 wild pitches in nearly 150 IP and has yet to appear in the major leagues.

With the 35th pick, the A's took Alabama catcher Jeremy Brown, noted as being "huge in the ass" in the book- thus the reason he was overlooked. Brown just retired from baseball a few days ago, despite hitting .276 with 14 homers at triple-A last year. He went 3 for 10 with 2 doubles, a run scored, and a walk in a brief stint with the big club in '06.

At 37, the A's took Stephen Obenchain, a pitcher from the University of Evansville. He, too was released last season and played in the Independent League in '07. He never made it past double-A, and owns a 19-20 career record in 96 minor league games (52 starts) along with a 4.15 ERA.

And finally, their last first-round pick at 39, was Mark Teahen, who's now with the Kansas City Royals. An outfielder now because of Alex Gordon, he had a nice 2006 season, going .290/18/69 with 10 steals in less than 400 ABs, but his 2007 was a pretty big disappointment. In 150 more at-bats, he hit 11 fewer homeruns, drove in 9 less, saw his slugging percentage dip more than 100 points and walked just 15 more times. He's still slated to be KC's Opening Day right fielder.

So out of their 7 picks, 3 players are big league starters (although none have won major awards or been selected to an All-Star team), 3 have yet to see an inning of action in the majors, one had a cup of coffee, and only two are still in the Oakland organization. Sounds like a pretty typical draft to me.

I Like Baseball Stuff Too, But...

2008-02-17T17:50:00.002-05:00

I'm not sure if I'd pay hundreds of dollars for this.

AL Central: Tougher Than The AL East?

2008-02-17T05:06:00.005-05:00

Maybe.

We'll have to see just how good the Tigers and Indians are. But on paper, those two look every bit as competitive as the Sox and Yankees...with the White Sox, Twins, and Royals giving the Blue Jays, Rays, and O's runs for their respective money in the win column.

As of mid-February, we already know Detroit was the big winner of the offseason, adding Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria, and Jacque Jones to a team that won 88 games last year. And their only major contributor from '07 who won't be back in '08 is Sean Casey. That's a pretty good offseason. It also gives Detroit, arguably, the best lineup in the game. They have speedy contact hitters with Renteria, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco...and mashers with Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield. Plus they're tremendously strong up the middle defensively with Ivan Rodriguez, Renteria, Polanco, and Granderson. The only unknown for Detroit is the pitching staff, which could be, but isn't a lock to be, quite good. Justin Verlander is a bona fide #1, and Willis could be a very capable #2, but he looked like number two in '07 going 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA and 87 walks in 205 IP. Minus the walks, Jeremy Bonderman had a similar year, but much better run support, and therefore, a winning record. And the ageless Kenny Rogers should be a capable #4 so long as the cameramen keep their distance.

For the Tribe, they're bringing back almost the exact same team that won 96 games last year and did so without a particularly productive season from Travis Hafner and a year from Grady Sizemore that was very good but still failed to meet lofty expectations. Plus, I'm sure they're excited to see what newbies Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Ryan Garko can do with 600 ABs. Like Detroit, it may come down to pitching for Cleveland. Can C.C. Sabathia turn in another Cy Young-worthy performance? Is Fausto Carmona for real? And what are they going to get from Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook? The answers to those questions may determine who wins the division.

As for everyone else, the White Sox are an interesting group going into '08. They added some nice offensive punch with Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, and Orlando Cabrera. So if Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko can hit a little better, and if Joe Crede can bounce back, they're going to score a lot of runs. The front-end of their rotation is filled with solid, unspectacular veterans (Mark Buehrle, Javy Vazquez, and Jose Contreras) while the back end is largely untested (John Danks, Gavin Floyd). It's for that reason that they'll finish no higher than 3rd, unless Cleveland or Detroit go completely belly-up.

The Minnesota Twins had an offseason to forget. They traded their number one starter (Johan Santana), their number two starter (Matt Graza), and lost their number three starter (Carlos Silva) and All-Star center fielder (Torii Hunter) to free agancy. Ouch. Francisco Liriano now projects to anchor this makeshift staff, which also includes journeyman Livan Hernandez and late-20-somethings Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. They did makeover their outfield with Delmon Young from the Garza deal and Carlos Gomez from the Santana deal. They'll make it easy to forget about Torii Hunter in a year or two, but this year, it won't matter.

And then there are the Kansas City Royals, who inexplicably gave Jose Guillen a $36 million 3-year-contract.

Here's my take on the Central in '08...

Detroit 98-64

Cleveland 96-66

Chicago 81-81

Minnesota 75-87

Kansas City 60-102

AL East: The More Things Don't Change...

2008-02-15T17:04:00.006-05:00

...the more they stay the same. The biggest moves involving the AL East this offseason deal, for the first time in a long time, with players leaving. A handful of big names left the division, the league, or baseball altogether (Erik Bedard, Eric Gagne, Miguel Tejada, Delmon Young, Troy Glaus, Roger Clemens). The only former All-Stars who joined the division during the offseason are Sean Casey (Boston), Scott Rolen and David Eckstein (both Toronto) and their best days are all behind them.

That, coupled with the relative lack of activity (other than re-signing their own key guys) of the Red Sox and Yankees, it's not surprising that I'm expecting the East to pan out about how it did last year. IMO, even without Curt Schilling for an extended stretch of time, the Bo Sox pitching is stronger than New York's. Josh Beckett has the chance to emerge to near-Johan-Santana-status with a 2008 season similar to his 2007 and there's little reason to suspect he can't do it. Yes, the Sox will lean on the likes of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz this year a bit more than they were expecting a few weeks ago, but so will the Yankees with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain. I'd take the Sox supporting cast (Dice-K and Wakefield) over the Yankees' (Pettitte, Mussina/Pavano) any day of the week.

The highest drama in the division in '08 (besides, of course, whether New York has enough muscle to edge out Cleveland, Detroit, LA, and Seattle for the Wild Card) might be whether this is the year the D-Rays finish 3rd. Yes 3rd. The Orioles, finally committed to a youth movement, are clearly punting 2008, so they'll be dead last for sure. The Jays did finish above .500 last year and their left side of the infield will be vastly improved. Plus, if B.J. Ryan is truly healthy, that will create some much-needed stability at the back of the pen. A few thousand miles south, Tampa Bay lost its Devil, but gained plenty of young talent (Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, James Shields, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Evan "Don't Call Me Eva" Longoria, and the active-until-injured Rocco Baldelli), plus they re-signed Carlos Pena to a multi-year deal. The back end of their rotation is still shaky at best, but these guys will be competitive.

That said, here's how it shakes out...

Boston 97-65
New York 93-69
Toronto 82-80
Tampa 81-81
Baltimore 58-104

Next up, an AL Central that's even more top-heavy than the AL East.

A Different Take On Steroids

2008-02-14T08:27:00.002-05:00

In case any of you are interested, I did a fairly in-depth investigation into steroid-use among young people in the Piedmont Triad area of North Carolina, where I live and work. You can see that TV news story here. My station's main anchor also interviewed me about my experiences during my playing days. That web news story is here.

WE'LL NEVER KNOW THE TRUTH

2008-02-13T15:52:00.004-05:00

Unless someone other than Brian McNamee comes forward with something significant, we'll never know who is telling the truth about Roger Clemens and steroids.

You have the accused whose alleged steroid and PED use is not impossible to believe, given among other things (a) his late-career success, (b) Andy Pettitte's admission that he (Clemens) discussed using PEDs with him (Pettitte) when they were teammates, (c) the fact that his own wife admitted to using HGH injected by McNamee, and (d) may have tampered with a witness (his former Nanny) prior to her meeting with Congress regarding his absence or presence at a party thrown by admitted steroid-user Jose Canseco.

Conversely, you have an accuser who is (a) a pathological liar, (b) an admitted drug-dealer and (c) in possession of little more than his own version of what happened along with so-called "forensic evidence" that is years old and would hold absolutely no legal clout due to chain of custody issues.

After watching the bulk of this 4 hour 40 minute hearing today, I went back and forth several times as to who I believed before reaching the conclusion, impossible as it is given their diametrically-opposed testimony, that I don't believe either one of them.

In my opinion, Clemens rambled too much, used the crutch word "again..." in nearly every single one of his responses, and was unable to provide cogent answers to tough questions, while McNamee came across as a smug, sniveling, street-smart, conman.

I am sure there will be pressure for some sort of follow-up, whether it's more questioning for Andy Pettitte (who Congressman Elijah Cummings said is the only person he believes in all this), a Department of Justice investigation, or perjury charges. But as for proving Clemens' guilt or innocence today, I don't think either happened.

For the record, Jayson Stark has an incredibly-detailed and at times, quite humorous blog about all this. It's definitely worth a read.

The Rocket's Red Scare

2008-02-13T05:39:00.006-05:00

If this is true, if Roger Clemens talked with Andy Pettitte about his own HGH-use in the late-90s, then the Rocket might be grounded for good. Pettitte has been excused from testifying today on Capitol Hill, but it's what's in his affidavit that could put his former teammate into "Barry Bonds territory"- accused of lying to the feds about performance-enhancing drugs and potentially facing jail time.

As Howard Bryant writes, somebody or several somebodies will come out of today's hearings looking awfully bad. It's either going to be Clemens...or McNamee and George Mitchell (Mitchell isn't actually testifying, but Charlie Scheeler, one of the investigators who worked on the Mitchell Report, is). There's no way all three men will escape unscathed because all three have taken such vehement and opposing positions. Either Clemens will emerge in Duke lacrosse player fashion as the victim of unthinkably false allegations and McNamee will look like scum and Mitchell will look like an incompetent dope...or the exact opposite will happen.

Stay tuned. The hearings are scheduled to begin at 10 o'clock...ironically, in the same room as the 2005 hearings featuring a finger-wagging Rafael Palmeiro, a suddenly-non-English-speaking Sammy Sosa, and a not-here-to-talk-about-the-past Mark McGwire.

Joba, The What?

2008-02-13T05:11:00.004-05:00

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training today, the New York Yankees already have very specific plans for rookie Joba Chamberlain this year, according to the New York Post.

In an effort to keep him from exceeding 140 IP in '08, the Bombers want him to start the season as Mariano Rivera's set-up man. Then some time in June, they'll send him down to the minors so he can begin to train to become a starter. After about a month, they'll bring him back up and he'll join the rotation for the rest of the season.

Memo to New York: It won't be that easy.

It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees getting off to a hot start the first 60 games of the season, keeping pace with Boston in the AL East and with the Angels, Mariners, Tigers and Indians in the Wild Card race. With a new manager, the core of the team re-signed and injury-free, and a dynamite bullpen highlighted by Joba and Mo, it's not inconcievable that New York could go, I dunno, 36-24 by shortening most games to 7 innings then sending in their lights-out relievers for the last 6 outs. But I find it awfully hard to believe the Yankees will then destroy that bullpen continuity by sending Joba down and having him join the rotation. It wouldn't take more than 2 or 3 Kyle Farnsworth/LaTroy Hawkins meltdowns for the Pinstripers to realize they had a pair of aces and discarded one of them.

On the flipside, say Joba struggles as a set-up man. Does a promotion from the pen to the rotation all-the-sudden seem prudent? Usually it goes the other way- a starter flounders, then becomes a reliever. Or what if they send him down, and he stinks as a starter? Does he go back to the pen, back to the minors, or does New York punt every 5th game?

And on the other flipside (yes, there are at least three sides to this particular coin), say the Yankees don't start hot. Say Pettitte and Mussina show their age, while Hughes and Kennedy show theirs and New York is at a loss for arms. Do you think the Yankees will wait until more than a third of the season is in the books to make a move? I doubt it.

Simply put, the Joba Rules are too simply put to have a snowball's chance of panning out exactly the way the Yankees want.

Bedard Deal Official

2008-02-08T17:00:00.001-05:00

The Baltimore Sun has a nice breakdown of who the O's are getting for Erik Bedard, now that the deal is done. And right now, it looks like they got a lot more than what the Twins got for Johan Santana.

I already knew a little bit about 22-year-old center fielder Adam Jones, but not much more about the other four guys. Among them, it appears there's a 30-year-old closer candidate for this season (George Sherill), two potential mid-rotation starters who are just 20 and 19 (Tony Butler and Chris Tillman), and a 23-year-old closer candidate in-waiting (Kam Mickolio). All this for a bona fide ace who's not yet 29, but also has yet to pitch 200 innings in a season, has never been an All-Star, and has zero postseason appearances.

Well done, Birds.

Now, get what you can for Brian Roberts and we'll check back with you in 2010.

Remember When These Guys Just Made Baseball News?

2008-02-08T12:26:00.001-05:00

In the Roger Clemens/Brian McNamee saga, we now know this much. Somebody is lying to the federal government. Clemens continues to deny any and all wrongdoing, while McNamee has produced pictures of what he claims is physical evidence that the Rocket used illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Clemens and legal experts have questioned the so-called "chain of custody" of this evidence, and how, even if the DNA tests link Clemens to this stuff, there's no way to prove it hasn't been tampered with in the years it's been sitting in McNamee's basement. Wednesday's televised testimony with these guys should be interesting.

Regarding the whole Pedro Martinez cockfighting thing, people will try to compare this to Michael Vick, and those people are flat wrong. Vick broke the law. Martinez did not. Vick was in the US. Martinez was in the Dominican. Millions of people have dogs as pets. Very few have gamecocks as pets. Very few people eat dog meat. Most people eat some type of bird meat. I can see how on the heels of Vick, the Mets probably aren't thrilled that video of Pedro at a cockfight surfaced on the web. That's not exactly the kind of PR you want to have right after trading for the best pitcher on the planet. And I'll be the first to say I don't get what's so thrilling about watching birds with razors on their beaks and talons peck each other to death. It seems kind of barbaric. But it's just not the same thing as dogfighting- not even close. In fact, it's so much different that it's not worth mentioning any further.

And finally, I'll say this about Curt Schilling and Shouldergate. Even if he doesn't throw a pitch in 2008, the Sox will still have the best pitching staff in their division with Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, and Wakefield. No other team is close (sorry Yankee fans). They might miss Schilling in October, though. In 19 career starts, he's 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 120 K's. That will be hard to replace. But if the bloody sock is any indicator of this guy's guts, he'll be back on the field as soon as he's able.

Look Familiar?

2008-02-05T17:19:00.001-05:00

To me, the Washington Nationals' new home ballpark looks a whole lot like Citizens Bank in Philadelphia. I'm not saying that was by design, and I liked the Bank the two times I was there. I just find it curious.

For the record, it's called "Nationals Park." That's about as exciting as their team should be this season.

Bye Bye Bedard

2008-02-05T03:02:00.000-05:00

It looks like it's a reality in Baltimore. If 22-year-old Adam Jones is as good as advertised (he went .314, 25 HR, 27 doubles, .382 OBP last year in AAA) then the Birds will have the makings of a nice offensive future with Nick Markakis and catcher Matt Wieters, who's rated the number one backstop prospect in the game right now.

Is Brian Roberts next on the chopping block? If he's not, he should be, in my opinion.

Shea What?!

2008-01-30T07:43:00.000-05:00

Provided he reaches a long-term deal and passes a physical, it looks like baseball's best pitcher is going to the other New York team in exchange for four prospects. Everyone knows how good Santana is. His average season over the last 4 years looks like this...17.5 wins, 246 K's, 2.89 ERA, and 1/2 of a Cy Young Award (he's won 2 since 2004).

As for the prospects, outfielder Carlos Gomez just turned 22 and had 12 steals in only 125 AB's last year for New York. He also amassed 157 in 1500 minor league AB's, so he has big-time speed. Here are his red flags, though. He's not a particularly high-average guy, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3:1, and he doesn't hit for much power. One scouting report I read on him said "Coco Crisp with a much, much better arm." Still, he is rated as New York's number 3 prospect overall by Baseball America.

Deolis Guerra turns 19 in a couple of months and spent 2007 in high-A ball where the righty went 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA along with 66 K's and 25 BB's in just under 90 innings. He's 6'5'', 200 pounds (a good pitcher's body) and while scouts believe he's inconsistent at this point, he was also rated as New York's number 2 prospect overall and is said to have the best change-up in the organization. He also played in the Futures Game last summer.

Philip Humber is New York's number 7 prospect overall and scouts seem to think he's just about ready for the big leagues. He just turned 25 and went 11-9 last year in Triple-A, striking out nearly one batter per inning. He's also about two and a half years removed from Tommy John surgery. Scouts think the surgery has lowered his ceiling from that of a number 2 starter down to a 4 or 5, but he also has the best curveball in the organization.

Finally, Kevin Mulvey (whose name makes me think of "Mulva" from the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend's name rhymes with a female body part, but he doesn't know which one) is another right handed starter who spent most of 2007 in Double-A, going 11-10 with a 3.26 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy, doesn't have a dominant pitch, but mixes his stuff well and projects to be another 4th or 5th starter. He ranks as New York's 4th best prospect overall and is 22 years old. He also has the best slider of any Mets pitcher.

So essentially, Minnesota gave up the best pitcher of the 21st century for a speedy, defensive-stud outfielder and 3 young right-handers, none of whom project to be a number 2 starter in the majors. All told, they got New York's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th top prospects, but did not get their best position player (another outfielder, 19-year-old Fernando Martinez who bats left, throws right, played in the '07 Futures Game and is the Mets' best power and contact hitter), or their best young arm- 24-year-old Mike Pelfrey, who got hit around in '07 but still made 13 starts with the big club.

Let's not forget the Mets also have to pay Santana, likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million. Still, the consensus seems to be Minnesota walked away from this deal without getting a really exciting prospect in return.

As for the Mets, here's what they'll look like on opening day...

SS Jose Reyes
2b Luis Castillo
CF Carlos Beltran
3B David Wright
1b Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez/LHP Mike Pelfrey
CP Billy Wagner

In the weak NL East which features the depleted Braves, Marlins and Nationals, New York's only real competition will be Philadelphia, which may have taken a step backwards since 2007 ended. In the outfield, they lost Aaron Rowand to free agency and traded Michael Bourne, only to sign the oft-injured Geoff Jenkins. That's a big downgrade. They got Brad Lidge in the Bourne deal, who will replace another questionable closer, Tom Gordon. That could be an upgrade, or it could be a push. They also lost Tad Iguchi and Jon Lieber to free agency, while Freddy Garcia, Antonio Alfonseco, and Jose Mesa remain unsigned. They did ink Pedro Feliz to play third base, but I'm inclined to think this team is, at best, as good as it was last year, while the Mets are significantly better with Santana.

One more thing that's worth noting is that when/if the Santana deal gets done and if Erik Bedard goes to Seattle, 3 of baseball's best, young pitchers will have been traded this offseson when you add Dan Haren to the list. I'm inclined to think that doesn't happen all that often.

Wow, an entire post without mentioning steroids once! See, it is possible.

I'm Back, And Baseball Needs To Be Soon

2008-01-28T05:02:00.000-05:00

Sorry I haven't posted in a while. No good excuse other than the holidays and a busy work schedule.

Anyhoo...I must say, after the Steroid Report To End All Steroid Reports came out, I felt like I didn't really know what my opinion was, so I didn't want to write anything about it until the dust had settled somewhat and until I had some time to reflect. So now that a month has passed, here's my assessment, for what it's worth.

First, I guess my main problem with the SRTEASR is that it is merely a snapshot of the problem. George Mitchell openly admits that players weren't at all helpful during this and that the players mentioned were the only ones he felt confident "outing." Plus, as several ESPN Radio talk show hosts pointed out, if Kirk Radomski hadn't landed squarely in Mitchel's lap, the SRTEASR would have been a leaflet rather than a 400-page novel. So my question is, how is it fair to guys like Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts that there are likely hundreds of other players out there who are just as guilty, or perhaps even more guilty (i.e. juiced for longer stretches of time), but somehow get a pass because they weren't associated with Radomski or Brian McNamee?

Second, I still find myself dealing with somewhat of a moral dilemma when it comes to the similarities (and differences) between Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Allegations aside, they are hands-down the two best players in the last 20 years, having padded already remarkable stats significantly in their late 30s and early 40s. Allegations aside, these are also two of the greatest players ever. Allegations aside, if you were to make a team of the best statistical performers of all time, you'd better believe these two are on the roster. But now, there are allegations and the slam-dunk-first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame-credentials of these two men are being scrutinized. I wondered why I wasn't instantly feeling the same animosity towards Clemens that I often do with Bonds. I thought Jayson Stark's article about these two was a total bull's eye, but after seeing Clemens on 60 Minutes, and seeing his press conference with the taped phone call with McNamee, I still wasn't as convinced of his innocence as I would have liked, and I hate that. Clearly there is much more evidence linking Bonds to PEDs as compared to Clemens, but I think Mike Wallace's question hits home- "what did McNamee gain by lying?" I know this much. You can't lie to the federal government. You can lie to yourself, to fans, to the media, and to George Mitchell. But you can't lie to the federal government. If you do, they're going to get you. I think it will be very interesting to see what Clemens says when he meets with lawmakers next month and if he adamantly maintains his innocence then, it could help his case significantly. But if he goes all "Mark McGwire" on them, it will do the exact opposite.

And third, I wonder if the general frustration I feel towards the whole steroids scandal is something a lot of baseball fans feel. I kind of miss the days when I'd click on ESPN.com's MLB link and the top stories were about offseason moves, not about who's saying what about which former or current player and whether that former or current player is admitting or denying it. I'm sick of it. And it's not going to go away any time soon, until all the players implicated in this thing are done playing.

But now that Erik Bedard may be headed to Seattle, and now that the Twins may still deal Johan Santana, perhaps we can get back to what's good about baseball, and away from what's so wrong with it.

The Mitchell Report...So What?

2007-12-13T06:19:00.000-05:00

His year-and-a-half investigation is over and according to some, he's going to call out 60-80 former and current players for using steroids. But what I want to know about former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell's report is this: what happens next?

What if one or more of those 60-80 broke a single season record? An all-time record? Won an end of season award? Have since been voted into the Hall of Fame? Are still playing today? Are now managing a team? Are now working in a front office? Are now working as an analyst somewhere? What, if anything, happens to these people? Is the fact that they've been named as part of this probe punishment enough? And perhaps most importantly, is being named in this report sufficient proof that said player did, in fact, use steroids?

Commissioner Bud Selig never addressed these issues during his press conference on March 30, 2006, when he first announced what Mitchell would be doing. I would imagine he can't hide from these queries after today, though. Mitchell will announce his findings at 2 this afternoon, and Selig will follow up with his own newser at 4:30.

Let's just say it should be an interesting day for the game of baseball.

Rowand On The River (Or Bay)

2007-12-12T18:28:00.000-05:00

Aaron Rowand is headed west. The All-Star centerfielder signed a 5-year, $60 million dollar deal with the Giants today, saying he wanted to be in one place for a long time. That's fine. But it does not appear the team in that one place is going to be particularly competitive any time soon.

Yes, the Giants have a decent rotation with Cain, Lincecum, and Zito. But their offense, even with Rowand, remains thin at best. Bonds is gone, Pedro Feliz is a free agent and the players that remain (Vizquel, Aurilia, Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina) are all at least in their mid-to-late 30s. And let's not forget they play in the same division as the NL champion Rockies, the NL's best regular-season team (Arizona), and an LA club that's added Andruw Jones and might not be done wheeling and dealing.

That's not to say Rowand won't win at all in San Fran. If they add a few bats in a few places, they have the staff to be dangerous. But don't expect that to happen in 2008.

Welcome To The Orioles, Troy Patton!

2007-12-12T14:42:00.000-05:00

Upon learning he'd been traded from Houston, along with four other members of the Astros' organization for Miguel Tejada, the 22-year-old lefty pitching prospect and top prize of the deal for Baltimore told the Houston Chronicle...

Wait for it...

Wait for it...

Keep waiting...

Okay, now!

"It's true. It's kind of sad really."

I don't know about you, but I think the O's have found a guy they can put on the front of their 2008 media guide. This kind of enthusiasm just screams 20-game winner, doesn't it?

In addition to Patton, a fireballer who had a solid cup of coffee with the big club in '07, the O's got outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate, and minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo (I can hear the "can't stand ya!" chants already).

The addition of Scott in this deal is kind of puzzling. He'll turn 30 during the middle of next season and has seen time with Houston for each of the last 3 years. The lefty outfielder put up a really promising '06 with a .336 average, and 10 homeruns in 214 at-bats. But last year he hit just .255 and struck out 95 times in 369 at-bats. How he helps the Orioles now, or ever, I don't know.

Matt Albers will turn 25 in a month. Last year was one to forget for the righty who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen. He posted a 4-11 record, 5.86 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.42 K:BB ratio. He supposedly has a great arm and closer stuff, but needs to learn how to harness it. Sound (Daniel Cabrera) familiar?

Dennis Sarfate is another reliever, turns 27 in early April, and appears to be a big strikeout guy. He had 14 of them (and just one walk) in 8 1/3 last year for Houston. The Orioles will also be his third team in as many years, though. In 2006, he struck out 11 in 8 1/3 for Milwaukee. A 9th round pick in 2000, he's averaged just about a strikeout an inning for his entire pro career.

And finally, Michael Costanzo is a 24-year-old slugging third baseman from Coastal Carolina. He was the 65th player taken in the 2005 draft and hit 27 homeruns last year at double-A Reading. He bats left, throws right and was Carolina's closer in 2005.

So all told, the Orioles got two pretty solid prospects (Patton and Costanzo), two more "maybe" pitchers (Albers and Sarfate) and a "help-you-now" throw-in (Scott). O's fans should be glad they finally traded Miggy, but they would have been able to get a whole lot more for him an offseason ago. They can only hope Bedard and Roberts go next, and that the team gets more in return for them.

As for Houston, it would appear exciting times are ahead for this bunch, as they are now the team with the best chance of supplanting the Cubs atop the NL Central. Their opening day lineup might look something like this...

CF Michael Bourne
2b Kaz Matsui
LF Carlos Lee
1b Lance Berkman
RF Hunter Pence
SS Miguel Tejada
3b Ty Wigginton
C Brad Ausmus

That's a lot of speed at the top, and a lot of pop in the middle. We'll see if they have enough pitching to be competitive.

Lost In Translation?

2007-12-12T06:39:00.000-05:00

Kosuke Fukudome is slated to become the latest Japanese position player to cross the Pacific and play in the majors next season. He just signed a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs, where he'll be the starting rightfielder and provide, the Cubs hope, some left-handed pop and protection for righty sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.

His 2007 season was shortened due to elbow surgery but back in 2006 he was the league MVP, hitting .351 with 31 homeruns and 104 RBI. He throws right-handed, turns 31 in late April, and at 5-11, 187, he's not a particularly big fellow.

I've heard Fukudome compared to J.D Drew on more than one occasion. Hopefully for Cub fans, those comparisons are based on talent and ceiling, not passion for the game or durability.

Like with most far east imports, it will be interesting to see how Fukudome's numbers translate against big league pitching over the course of a 162-game season. Ichiro has most certainly been as good as advertised, although it's interesting to point out that after 7 full seasons in the US, his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homerun, RBI and walk totals are all lower than his Japanese numbers after 7 full seasons. He's still a Gold Glover, perennial All-Star, and Hall of Famer in the states, you just won't see him flirt with a 1.000 OPS here like he did in Japan.

Hideki Matsui is probably the second-best of the recent imports, and even he hasn't hit for the same power he did in Japan. He averaged a homerun every 13.8 at-bats for the Yomiuri Giants between 1994 and 2002. With the New York Yankees, he goes yard every 24.8 at-bats. His career OPS is also about 140 points lower in the US than it was in Japan although he has cut down on his strikeouts in the Bronx (one every 7 AB's compared to one every 4.9 in Japan). Again, Matsui is a fine player, a tough out, and by all accounts, a good teammate. He's just not an elite slugger here. He's never hit 32 homeruns in a season for New York even though he averaged 37 a year for 9 seasons with Yomiuri.

Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston.

My point is this. Don't expect Fukudome to hit .350 next season. Don't expect him to hit 30 homeruns. And don't expect him to drive in 100...not in his first season anyway. Realistically, the Cubs got him to generate a little buzz, perhaps bring in some Japanese advertising dollars, and most importantly to replace Jacque Jones, who's now with Detroit. Last year, JJ hit .285 with 33 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 66 RBI in 453 at-bats. My guess is, Fukudome finishes a lot closer to those numbers than he does to his 2006 numbers in Japan.

A Hypothetical Question

2007-12-10T19:31:00.000-05:00

If an aging catcher, past his prime, goes to one of the worst teams in baseball, does anybody care?

Paul LoDuca signs a 1-year-deal with the Washington Nationals, terms undisclosed, but likely in the neighborhood of $5 million.

Would they please hurry up and get the Santana deal done?

This Time, He Deserves It

2007-12-10T14:09:00.000-05:00

MLB.com is giving out its annual awards right now, as voted upon by nearly 10 million baseball fans worldwide. Today, it was Josh Beckett winning a "This Year In Baseball" award for being the Top Starting Pitcher.

I know it's not nearly as prestigious as the Cy Young, but I also think that because this award encompasses the entire season rather than just the regular season, Beckett was the right choice. In my opinion, the difference between Beckett and C.C. Sabathia during the regular season was so small that Beckett's dominance in the postseason (including two wins against Sabathia, specifically) was more than enough to make him the best starting pitcher in the bigs this past season.

Tomorrow, MLB.com announces the award for closer, an honor which should go to J.J. Putz (1.38, 40 saves, 82K, 49 baserunners in 71 2/3 IP). The day after that, it's best manager (has to be Clint Hurdle, right?), then performance of the year (another one for Beckett?), rookie (let the Braun/Tulowitzki debate begin again), hitter (A-Rod), setup man (Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt), defensive player (Tulowitzki), blooper/play (no idea, maybe the ALDS bug attack in Cleveland or the entire 30-3 game at Camden Yards?) and finally moment/postseason moment (the Rockies beating Trevor Hoffman in extra innings of an extra game to go to the playoffs).

Can Somebody Please Explain This To Me?

2007-12-10T12:08:00.000-05:00

The Milwaukee Brewers and reliever Eric Gagne have agreed to a 1-year, $10 million dollar deal. The team says it needed help in the bullpen after losing Francisco Cordero to the Cincinnati Reds earlier this offseason for $46 million over 4. Let's not forget Gagne will compete with Derrick Turnbow to be Milwaukee's closer. He's not been handed the job yet. And let's also not forget this happened just hours before the New York Yankees signed reliever LaTroy Hawkins to a 1-year, $3.75 million dollar contract.

Here's why I'm so perplexed. First, how on Earth is Eric Gagne worth $10 million dollars right now? Yes, he turns just 32 next month. And yes, at one time he was arguably the most dominant closer in the history of baseball. But this is also a guy who's been with 3 teams and recorded 17 saves since June of 2005. This is a guy whose right arm looks like it's been stolen from the Frankenstein monster and then attached to his body. This is a guy who was so bad for Boston down the stretch that he was relegated to mop-up duty late in the season and in the playoffs. This is a guy who had only 5 appearances out of 25 with the Sox where he didn't allow a baserunner and not once did he retire more than 3 batters. How does that make him worth an 8-figure salary, especially considering he could end up being Derrick Turnbow's set-up man?

Second, supposing Gagne is worth $10 million, how is LaTroy Hawkins worth only $3.75? Hawkins has appeared in at least 60 games for each of the last 8 seasons. During that stretch he has had at least double digits in holds, or double digits in saves every year. He posted a 2.90 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .228 average after the All-Star break and allowed just 3 baserunners over 5 innings in the 2007 playoffs for Colorado. The only way Hawkins will close for the Yanks this season is if Mariano Rivera misses the team bus or takes a liner off the noggin, but still, New York's backup plan could be much worse.

Perhaps Gagne regains his previous form from earlier this decade. After all, I'm sure the Brewers would take even 75% of his '03 season (55 saves, 1.20 ERA, 137 K's, 57 baserunners in 82 1/3 IP, plus a Cy Young Award). But in my opinion, the odds of Gagne being worth more than 2.5 times what LaTroy Hawkins is when '08 is in the books, are not good.

The Bonds Market

2007-12-06T14:08:00.001-05:00

His arraignment on perjury and obstruction of justice charges stemming from the BALCO investigation is tomorrow, but Barry Bonds says he wants to play baseball next season. For argument's sake, let's assume he avoids jail either via an acquittal or thanks to an exceptionally light sentence. Which teams, if any, would be a good fit?

Well, I think you can all-but-eliminate every single National League team because he just can't play the field any more at an acceptable level. Plus, at this point in his career, he is so much more valuable as a power hitter that it's not worth having to give him a day off so often because of his having played the field the night before. That leaves 14 teams (by the way, why does the NL have two more teams than the AL? Why not move Houston from the NL Central to the AL West? That way, every division in baseball would have 5 teams). Anyway, of those 14 teams, Boston (Ortiz), New York (Giambi), Toronto (Thomas), Chicago (Thome), Cleveland (Hafner), Detroit (Sheffield), Seattle (Vidro), and Oakland (Cust) already have designated hitters who are serviceable or better. That leaves as few as 6 or as many as 8 if you include Seattle and Oakland that would potentially have room for Bonds- Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, LA, and Texas.

With the Orioles seemingly trying to get younger rather than older, I just don't see Baltimore being the least bit interested. After all, they already went through Palmeiro-gate once before.

It's probably the same story with Tampa Bay. They have a bunch of young and (in theory) up-and-coming players so I don't see how Bonds would mesh with guys like Upton, Kazmir, Crawford, Longoria, Garza, etc. Let's not forget, the Rays just got rid of Delmon Young who was seen by some as a guy with attitude issues. He's Mr. Congeniality compared to BB.

Kansas City, like Tampa Bay and Baltimore, is a long way from winning or even being competitive in their own division so I don't see Bonds wanting to go there, notwithstanding the fact that the Royals probably wouldn't want him or be able to pay him what he would want, especially considering they just signed Jose Guillen to such an absurd deal.

The Twins are interesting. The odds of Bonds winning a ring there aren't great now that Detroit is so stacked, but he would give them a nice boost in the middle of their order with Morneau, Young, Mauer, Cuddyer and whoever else they get for Santana (I'm still convinced this deal will get done).

LA is also interesting. He could stay out west, give Vlad and Hunter some nice protection and would have the best chance of winning a World Series there than with any other potential suitor.

Texas might be able to pay him and might be willing to take a chance on him (they did the whole Sammy Sosa thing and that actually worked out okay for both sides) but they are not going to finish above Seattle, let alone LA next season, so I doubt Bonds would be too enamored with this team, although given his "situation" (said in a Dane Cook voice), he probably can't be too picky.

Seattle might not be a bad option, although Jose Vidro did have a pretty nice season for the M's last year (.381 OBP, more walks than K's, 600+ plate appearances) and he definitely can't play the field any more so Bonds might not be worth the hit you'd take by losing Vidro in the process.

And in Oakland, Bonds would definitely be a Billy Beane guy...aka a member of the Island of Misfit Toys. But with Dan Haren and Joe Blanton rumored to be on the block and the A's looking to get young again and wait for LA to get old, Bonds just doesn't seem to make as much sense as he did a few months ago.

All that said, I don't think Bonds ever will play again. I have no idea how his trial will play out but will a majority of baseball fans ever actually accept it if he is acquitted? I doubt it. And for that reason, I don't see a big league GM being brave enough to offer him a contract.

Andruw's Nuw Bluw Cruw

2007-12-06T06:06:00.001-05:00

It's the LA Dodgers who have decided to take a chance on Jones, who's coming off his worst season in the bigs. Last year, the 30-year-old winner of 10 straight Gold Gloves hit just .222 with 26 homeruns and 94 RBI. His OPS fell 170 points as well from 2006, which fell 30 points from his career high in 2005.

The move is somewhat surprising considering the jogjam it creates in the LA outfield. They have speedster Juan Pierre in center, promising young bat Andre Ethier in right, another promising (and younger) rightfielder in Matt Kemp, Jason Repko can also play the outfield but was slowed by a foot injury last year, Delwyn Young played sparingly in 2007 but made the most of his 34 at-bats (he hit .382 with an OPS over 1.000) and their leftfielder last season, Luis Gonzalez, remains an unsigned free agent.

So where does Jones fit in? Well, conventional wisdom would say AJ, now their highest-paid outfielder, is going to shift JP, now their second-highest paid outfielder, to left because of his defense. But who plays right- Either, Kemp, Repko, or Young? The answer might depend on a yet-to-be-completed trade. I have to imagine there's plenty of interest out there in Kemp (and third baseman Andy LaRoche for that matter). Does LA now enter the Johan Santana sweepstakes, or go after somebody like Erik Bedard or Dan Haren? Seems to me they should because there just aren't enough ABs to go around for Ethier and Kemp, the two most talented of the group.

As for the specifics of the Jones signing, his 2-year $36.2 million dollar deal is hardly the pay day he (or agent Scott Boras) envisioned after his monster '05 season. And it's actually a bargain considering the Kansas City Royals just gave Jose Guillen the same amount of money, but for 3 years.

Overall, I think this is a shrewd move on behalf of the Dodgers. If Jones' career keeps going south, at least you've upgraded your outfield defense significantly and he's gone after 2009. But if Jones resurrects his career and rediscovers his stroke, then they've just added the bat they were missing all of 2007 and potentially opened the door for a blockbuster deal. With a healthy Rafael Furcal and decent pitching, LA should be in the mix in a tough NL West.

Detroit's Dynamic Duo

2007-12-04T19:00:00.000-05:00

While we're all waiting for news on Johan Santana, it's Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis who are on the move to Motown, instantly making the Tigers the favorite to win the AL Central next year.

The Marlins get Andrew Miller, a 6'6'', 22-year-old lefty who was the 6th overall pick of last year's draft. He's had some control issues at the big league level- 49 walks in 74 1/3 IP, but his upside is huge. He's definitely the centerpiece of this deal. Also included in the deal...Cameron Maybin a 20-year-old outfielder who was the 10th overall pick of the '05 draft. He got a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year and looked overmatched, punching out 21 times in 49 AB's. But he can hit, hit for power, and run. I read one website that said he was the most exciting position player to come through Detroit's farm system since Kirk Gibson. On top of that, the fish get Mike Rabello, a catcher who turns 28 in January and has just 169 big league at bats, with all but one of them coming this past season. He hit .256 with 13 extra base hits but also struck out 41 times. On top of those 3, the Tigers are also reportedly sending 3 other minor league pitchers south, including a 23-year-old fireballer named Eulogio De La Cruz. He threw 6 2/3 innings for the big club last season.

Now for Detroit. They get one of the best hitters in the game in Cabrera, who's only 24, and the get Willis, who turns 26 in April and already has 68 career wins including a 22-win 2005 season. On the flip side, D-Train's hit totals and walk totals have gone up every year he's been in the league and he's coming off of what was easily his most disappointing season (10-15, 5.17 ERA). Cabrera's defense has been much-maligned as well. He had the 3rd worst fielding percentage out of all big league third baseman last year, and only Ryan Braun had more errors than his 23. His weight issues have never hurt his bat and he's reportedly on a new off-season conditioning program designed to keep him slim.

Now let's examine what this deal does for Detroit. Their opening day lineup would look something like this...

CF Curtis Granderson
2b Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
3b Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
1b Carlos Guillen
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Edgar Renteria

And their rotation...

RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Kenny Rogers
LHP Nate Robertson

The Tigers finished with 88 wins in '07, but were still a full 8 games back of the Tribe. Next year, the Cenral could be nearly as top-heavy as the AL East.

They Want Lester And More

2007-12-04T02:49:00.000-05:00

Would you give up Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester, plus a minor leaguer to land Johan Santana? Apparently, that's the dilemma facing Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox.

Initially, they told the Twins they could have either guy, plus mid-level prospects, but not both. Based on Boston's current situation, I'm inclined to think they should cave and give Minnesota what they want. And here's why.

As Curt Schilling wrote on his blog, a 1-2 punch of Santana and Beckett would give the Sox a feared, dynasty-worthy rotation for the rest of this decade and well into the next one. Johan turns 29 in March and Beckett turns 28 in May. These guys are in the midst of their best years right now. As for the short-term, you also have Schilling coming back for one more year, plus the ageless Tim Wakefield at the back end of the rotation. And in the long-term, Dice-K turns 28 next season and even if they give up Lester, they still have Clay Buchholz, who turns just 24 late next season (he's actually 8 months younger than Lester). In other words, their rotation could be Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz until 2010, or beyond. There are exactly zero other teams whose pitching outlook would be as promising for the rest of the 00's.

That's not even factoring in the added bonus of keeping Santana away from the enemy- New York. Needless to say, this would be huge as well. And offensively, while there's no question Ellsbury provided Boston with an offensive spark late last season, let's not forget he only had 116 AB's in 2007. The Sox won a bunch of games without him and without a healthy Manny Ramirez or a productive Kevin Youkilis. With the emergence of Dustin Pedroia and a bounce-back year from Youk, the top of their order would be just fine and so would the middle.

A lot can happen in the days ahead and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Yankees flip-flop on their already-passed "Monday deadline" if there's still a chance they can land, arguably, the most coveted pitcher in baseball history. I just don't see how the Sox pass on this offer.

They're Bringin' Andy Back (Yea)!

2007-12-03T19:12:00.001-05:00

That's what Yankee fans are likely saying after hearing the news that one of their best pitchers from 2007 and their only effective playoff hurler, Andy Pettitte, will be back in 2008.

This does change my views of what a Johan Santana trade would potentially do for the Bombers' staff. For good reason, a rotation of Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Kennedy sounds a lot more stable than one that does not include the 35-year-old, 201 game winner.

Unfortunately Pettitte and the others (Santana included or not) are still going to have to pitch with that defense.

The $antana $weepstakes Part II

2007-12-02T14:33:00.000-05:00

The gauntlet has been thrown down and the Red Sox have answered, now saying they will include speedster Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Johan Santana. But interestingly, the Sox are not willing to deal Ellsbury and pitcher Jon Lester in the same trade. The Sox had previously put Lester and Coco Crisp in a package offer that also included a minor leaguer, but understandably, the Twins want Ellsbury. Coupled with the newly-acquired Delmon Young, Ellsbury would give Minnesota a really talented, really young outfield.

Now, the question becomes, whose offer is better? Is it New York's with Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and others? Is it Boston's with Ellsbury, a pitcher, and others? Or are they better off seeing what else is out there?

Personally, I think there are advantages and disadvantages to both deals. If the Twins go with New York's offer, they can potentially replace one ace with another, and pick up a solid defensive outfielder too, shifting Young to right. But if they go with Boston's, they will have an offense that's arguably the best in the AL Central with Ellsbury setting the table for the likes of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Young. The only downside is, they will have traded their two best starting pitchers to do it and without getting much in big-league-ready-pitching in return.

The one thing I don't see happening is Minnesota holding onto Santana, because once the season starts, I doubt they'll get many offers with this much young talent.

The $antana $weepstakes

2007-12-01T15:39:00.000-05:00

The New York Yankees are prepared to offer the Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes, outfielder Melky Cabrera, and a second tier prospect for the right to then sign Johan Santana for something in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million.

First, I have to wonder how New York can afford to do this financially after re-upping with A-Rod for as much as $305 million over 10 years, re-signing Posada for $52.4 million over 4, and Rivera for $45 million over 3 years. Let's not forget, this team also has Giambi, Jeter, Abreu, Damon, Matsui, and Mussina signed to very lucrative deals as well. Unless the Yanks are minting their own money in the home team dugout, conventional wisdom would tell you the well has to run dry at some point, right?

Next, money aside, I have to wonder if Santana would really make the Yankees that much better of a team, i.e. a team that can beat the Boston Red Sox and go to the World Series. If they were to send Hughes and Cabrera to Minnesota, and assuming Clemens and Pettitte retire, New York's starting rotation would still be very front-heavy. Santana and Wang would be as good a 1-2 punch as anybody, although in the playoffs, the Sox would arguably still have the upper hand with Beckett and Schilling. And after their first two starters, New York would be in basically the same situation they were in last year. Who's their number 3? Ian Kennedy? Yes, he's good and he's young, but he's thrown 19 innings in his big league career. There's simply no way of knowing how he'll hold up over 30+ starts. Is Mike Mussina their number 4? He turns 39 in a week and people hit .342 off him in the second half. Again, what will he be good for over 30 starts? And then who's the number 5? Carl Pavano? Jeff Karstens? Kei Igawa? Matt DeSalvo? Chase Wright? Like Steve Perry once sang, the list goes on and on and on and on. The only difference is, I have stopped believing.

All that's not taking into consideration the defensive hit New York would take by losing Cabrera in center and having to play Johnny Damon there. Unless they signed Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones (neither of whom would be cheap) their starting outfield would feature a trio of 34-year-olds by the All-Star Break with Matsui in left, JD in center and Abreu in right. Add to that a catcher who allowed an AL-worst 102 steals, a very average left side of the infield in Jeter and A-Rod and a gigantic question mark at first and this isn't exactly a contact pitcher's dream.

Personally, I think they'd be better served going after somebody like Dan Haren. He won't cost you as much in prospects or cash and all the sudden, you have a deeper pitching staff and a better defensive team. The Red Sox are good because they're holding onto their young talent- the same reason why the Yanks were good in mid-to-late 90's. I know there's a lot of pressure on them to one-up Boston in the Santana Sweepstakes, but there's a pretty good chance he won't be worth what New York will have to pay to get him...not like that's stopped them before.

A Headscratcher

2007-11-29T07:58:00.000-05:00

Not to sound like Mel Kiper Junior, Draft Expert, or anything like that, but this trade kind of makes me realize why the Tampa Bay Rays (minus the Devil) have a high pick every year.

They just swapped Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and minor leaguer Jason Pridie for Minnesota's Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and minor leaguer Eduardo Morlan.

Young, who just turned 22, was considered a major Rookie of the Year contender entering 2007 and had a solid, albeit unspectacular year for Tampa, going .288/13/93 with 10 steals and 38 doubles. Garza, another promising youngster who just turned 24, went 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA from July on. Of his 16 starts, just 6 were quality starts, mostly because he didn't often pitch 6 innings.

Not that I'm a Rays' fan or anything like that, but it seems to me they got taken. Young was the first overall pick of the '03 draft and I don't think there's any question his ceiling is significantly higher than Garza's, not to mention he's 2 years younger. I know Tampa wants to straighten out its pitching staff and Garza will be a nice compliment to Scott Kazmir, but they gave up too much here.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Young be a younger, more potent, less-inclined-to-be-a-regular-on-web-gems version of Torii Hunter, and soon. As for Garza, who knows what his ceiling will be? Is he a perennial 17 game winner? I think the odds of that are a lot lower than the odds of Young making Minnesota fans forget about Hunter in 2008.

Joe Kennedy Dies Suddenly

2007-11-24T03:27:00.000-05:00

It's always sad, and to me, scary when something like this happens. He just collapsed in the middle of the night.

I'll be very interested to see what the medical examiner says about a cause of death and you certainly have to feel for his family.

You also can't help but think about Darryl Kile whenever you read something like this.

Rollins Vs. Holliday

2007-11-22T14:58:00.000-05:00

I know the award was given out a few days ago, but I'm inclined to think the BBWAA got it wrong when Jimmy Rollins edged out Matt Holliday for the 2007 NL MVP. Here's why...

First of all, both players were clearly the MVPs of their own teams, both of which came back from the dead in September to make an improbable playoff appearance, so that's a push. It's not like one guy's team made the postseason and the other's didn't.

With that said, here are there basic numbers from 2007. Holliday hit .340 with a .405 OBP, 36 homeruns, 137 RBI, 11 steals, and 120 runs scored. Rollins hit .296 with a .344 OBP, 30 homeruns, 94 RBI, 41 steals, and 139 runs. Just looking at that, I don't think there's any question Holliday's overall offensive numbers were better. He also outslugged Rollins by more than 70 points, had more walks, and a few more extra base hits.

I know a lot has been made of Rollins' defense and that's certainly a factor to consider in all of this. J-Roll won his first Gold Glove in 2007 after committing just 11 errors at shortstop and turning 110 double plays. Here's the problem. Two other NL shortstops finished with higher fielding percentages (Tulowitzki and Vizquel) and two other NL shortstops (Tulowitzki and Wilson) turned more double plays. Rollins finished 6th in the league in "range factor" which is putouts plus assists divided by innings, and he finished 6th in the league in "zone rating" which is some STATS, Inc. measure of the batted balls a player reaches. In other words, Rollins won the award after having an excellent, but not necessarily a "clearly-best-at-his-position" kind of year. And you know what? Matt Holliday did too, albeit at a much easier position. His 3 errors were second among NL left fielders, his 7 outfield assists were seventh, he had the second best fielding percentage, the 5th best range factor, and the best zone rating. He also had 20 more total chances than any other NL left fielder. But he didn't win the Gold Glove because the voters chose 3 center fielders (Beltran, Rowand, Jones) and a right fielder (Francoeur). So perhaps the defensive gap between Rollins and Holliday has been overstated. You still have to give the edge to Rollins, but it's not a complete cakewalk.

Now let's look at a few splits. To me, these numbers are more telling than any others when it comes to a player's true "value" to his team. These are the numbers that show whether a player came up big when it counted (late in games, late in the season, with men on base, with 2 outs), or whether he just padded his stats once the game was already decided. Holliday hit .330 in August, .367 in September, and .407 the last week of the season. Rollins hit .296, .298, and .375. In terms of OBP over that time period, Holliday went .403, .448, .515...Rollins went .371, .333, and .400. With men on base, Holliday hit .332 with 119 RBI. Rollins hit .314 with 74 RBI. With men on and 2 out, Holliday hit .337 with a 1.026 OPS. Rollins hit .261 with an .842. With runners in scoring position, Holliday hit .333 with 94 RBI and a .947 OPS. Rollins was .272, 64, .877. "Close and late," which is defined as 7th inning or later and either up a run, tied, or with the tying run on deck, Holliday hit .295 with a .935 OPS, Rollins hit .255 with an .808 OPS. And while half of Holliday's homeruns were solo shots, two-thirds of Rollins' round-trippers were.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture. Matt Holliday was the most valuable player in the National League in 2007, but for some reason, Jimmy Rollins was voted the Most Valuable Player.

Little Sarge No Longer In Charge Of The Outfield

2007-11-22T12:35:00.001-05:00

It appears Gary Matthews Jr.'s days are over as LA's center fielder now that the Angels have signed Torii Hunter. Hunter has won 7 Gold Gloves in a row and the Angels openly admit Vladimir Guerrero will be their right fielder (duh) while Garrett Anderson will start in left. In addition to Matthews they also have Juan Rivera back from a broken leg, who hit .279 in 43 AB's at the end of '07 after a .310/23/85 performance the year before...and Reggie Willits who stole 27 bases and had a .391 OBP last season, even though his second half was poor.

LA says Matthews will spell Vlad and Garrett and see some time at DH in '08, which doesn't seem to justify the 5-year, $50 million dollar deal they signed him to last year, although they're paying Hunter almost twice that ($90M over 5). Matthews came back to Earth last year going .252/18/72 with 18 steals after a .313/19/79 year with 10 steals in 2006.

Clearly, LA has to trade somebody out of this group of 6 and you can bet it won't be Vlad or Hunter. They're better off keeping Anderson considering what they'd be able to get for an aging, injury-prone corner outfielder and they'll have an equally difficult time getting a team to take on Matthews' absurdly large deal especially because he turns 34 next August (I had no idea until I looked it up). That makes the most likely trade candidates Willits or Rivera (or both).

LA's already made one trade this offseason, so don't be surprised to see another, soon.

What A Snoozer!

2007-11-20T02:55:00.000-05:00

So much for this being a mix-'em-up, re-establish-the-balance-of-power kind of offseason. So far we've seen Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell re-sign with the Red Sox, while the Yankees have kept Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and A-Rod (who was robbed of a unanimous MVP selection by two writers from Detroit, according to Rob Neyer). Those guys were on a short list of the most sought-after players and they're not going anywhere. Neither is Mets second baseman Luis Castillo (not that anyone cares all that much).

Barry Bonds has a better chance of playing for the same California Penal League team Charlie Sheen pitched for in "Major League" than he does of finding a suitor in the AL or NL. And Tom Glavine is going back to the Braves for one year and $8 million dollars. Who said pitching was going to be hard to come by this year?

The biggest "bombshells" so far have been Edgar Renteria to the Tigers and the Orlando Cabrera/Jon Garland deal. And unless a big name gets traded between now and spring training (Miguel Tejada?, Miguel Cabrera?, Johan Santana?) the most we have to look forward to is where Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones end up and for how much.

Thanks a lot guys. What happened to greed and testing the market?

INDICTED!

2007-11-15T17:47:00.000-05:00

On a day when it looks like A-Rod is returning to the Yankees and Jake Peavy unanimously won the Cy Young, Barry Bonds managed to steal the spotlight. After reading the indictment against him, I have a few thoughts and a few questions. But first, here's a basic summary of what the indictment says. And here's a terrific summary of this entire 9-year nightmare.

Count One: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
As a result of the federal government's steroids and money-laundering investigation into BALCO, evidence was seized, including drug tests failed by Bonds. So, he was required to testify before a grand jury on December 4, 2003. During that testimony, Bonds was asked if his ever took any steroids that his trainer and friend, Greg Anderson (who worked with/for BALCO) gave him. He was asked, point blank, if he had taken steroids, testosterone, flax seed oil, the cream, or any other steroids. Each time Bonds said, "no." So there's the first charge - perjury - lying while under oath.

Count Two: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
Bonds was also asked if Anderson ever injected him, or ever gave him anything that required a needle/syringe to use. Bonds also replied, "no." That's the second count of perjury.

Count Three: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
Bonds was asked if Anderson ever gave him human growth hormone or testosterone. Again, Bonds answered, "no." And again, that's another perjury charge.

Count Four: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
Bonds was asked about a lotion/balm Anderson gave him. Bonds claims Anderson told him it was flax seed oil. Bonds said he used the substance about once a home stand and didn't start using it until the 2003 season. As the prosecutor referenced a calendar from December 2001 with a "BB" on it, Bonds was asked if he had taken any of those items (the cream, the clear, flax seed oil) prior to 2003. He was asked several times in several ways if he had taken any of those items from Anderson prior to 2003 and each time he replied, "no," and thus there's the fourth perjury charge.

Count Five: Obstruction Of Justice, 10-Year Maximum Sentence
Based on the information above, Bonds is accused of intentionally giving false, misleading and evasive answers to a federal grand jury.

With all that understood, here are my thoughts/questions.

(1) Regardless of the result of a trial/plea deal, this is the end of Barry Bonds' baseball career. He's a free agent on the tail-end of his playing days anyway. No team in the league is going to offer someone facing these kind of charges any kind of deal, especially considering he could end up in jail as a result.

(2) The fact that a federal grand jury has filed these charges is as close to iron-clad proof as we've seen to date that Bonds did, in fact, cheat his way into the record books. Only an actual plea deal or conviction would be more convincing.

(3) Former Commissioner Fay Vincent said this is worse than Pete Rose getting caught betting on baseball, and similar to the 1919 "Black Sox" scandal. I would still argue the Black Sox case was worse because they were trying to lose, but there's no question the Bonds case is worse than Rose.

(4) If he is found guilty, what happens to all of his records, most notably single-season homeruns, and career homeruns? I would imagine Hank Aaron would be "re-crowned" the all-time king, but would the single-season record revert back to another suspected cheat, Mark McGwire? I don't see how that's much of a solution. If not Mac, is Sammy Sosa the single-season champ? Or do we dip all the way back down to Roger Maris' 61, which is now 7th on the list?

(5) Will Bonds get into the Hall of Fame if he is convicted? If he is acquitted?

(6) Will Bonds' attorneys advise him to accept a plea deal, a-la Michael Vick, or will this case go to trial?

(7) Will Bonds roll over on former teammates or opponents in an effort to get his sentence reduced?

(8) What, if any impact will this have on the game of baseball in 2008 if the case does go to trial?

Bonds is due in court December 7. One of ESPN's legal experts seems to think if Bonds is convicted, he won't serve more than a year or two in prison. Still, what a mess.

Miggy On The Block?

2007-11-14T08:49:00.000-05:00

Yes, he is. It seems the Baltimore Orioles, after amassing a .447 winning percentage (or .553 losing percentage) over 10 straight losing seasons (the 3rd longest active streak in baseball) are finally coming to grips with the fact that big changes need to be made.

In addition to getting whatever they can for Tejada, which will be significantly less than what they would have received a few years ago when they weren't winning either, I think they should look to deal Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard too. And here's why.

Roberts just turned 30. He's completely healed from that horiffic shoulder injury that ended his 2005 season and he posted a career best 50 steals in 2007. In other words, his best years are right now. There's a good chance he will never be more valuable and he is a free agent after 2009 not 2008, so he wouldn't be a "rent-a-player" in the eyes of suitors. There's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to get 2 or 3 significant prospects for him.

Next to Bedard. This is a tougher pill to swallow because he looked like the best pitcher in baseball from May through mid-August and he'll turn just 29 in spring training. But he's arbitration-eligible after 2008, eligible for free agency after 2009, will cost a boatload to resign, will be looking for a long-term deal, and then you'll have him in his early-to-mid 30's, rather than mid-to-late 20's. I'm inclined to think there aren't many teams out there that wouldn't give up their top prospect to get him. If you were the New York Yankees, would you part ways with Phil Hughes if you could get Erik Bedard? That's an instant upgrade if you're New York, and that's a team that's built to win yesterday, not now. Imagine who else they might be able to get. Justin Upton? Andy LaRoche? Homer Bailey? Yovani Gallardo? I don't think any of those offers would be laughed at.

Add up the prospects you'd be able to acquire for Tejada, Roberts, and Bedard, combine them with Nick Markakis, Matt Weiters, Chris Ray, Adam Loewen, Pedro Beato, Freddy Deza, Hayden Penn, and subtract the fat you'd trim by cutting ties with guys like Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Jay Gibbons, and others and you know what you have? A team that can actually compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2010. It might not be a popular decision right now. But fans would forget quickly once they start winning.

To All The Sox Fans C.C.ing Red Right Now...

2007-11-13T17:55:00.000-05:00

Yes, your boy Josh Beckett lost out in the Cy Young voting to a guy he beat twice in the ALCS and he did so by a surprisingly large margin. But let's not forget you just won your second World Series title in 4 years, swept the hottest team in postseason history, had the AL Rookie of the Year and two more of your rookies get votes in the category, and your arch-rival just lost their best player to free agency.

Things could be worse. You could be any other team in baseball.