Most Valuable Yankee Of 2009?

Teixeira?  Jeter?  A-Rod?  Sabathia?  Let's find out.

As Matt pointed out in a previous post, the Yankees opened the season 13-15 without Alex Rodriguez.  Once he returned to action, they went 90-44.  So was he the engine that powered their lineup?  Does that make him their regular season MVP?

Well, on the last day of June (roughly two months into A-Rod's return), the Yankees had just won their 6th game in a row, had improved their mark to 44-32 overall and had won 31 of their 48 games since getting A-Rod back (a .646 winning percentage).  At the time, the game's highest paid player was hitting .233 with 12 homeruns and 39 RBI in 159 at bats.  True, his on-base percentage was very good (.399) but in the month of June, he slugged a very pedestrian .415.  During those same two months, Derek Jeter's on base percentage was virtually identical but he hit 80 points higher with just 2 fewer extra base hits, plus 13 steals.  Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira's May and June numbers look like this: .300 average, 17 homeruns, 19 doubles, 50 RBI, .391 OBP in 210 ABs.  And let's not forget about C.C. Sabathia's 6-2 record and BAA of just over .200 during that time period, either.  Perhaps the return of #13 helped settle everybody down.

That gets us close to the All-Star break.  But let's not forget- the Yankees were still trailing the Red Sox by 3 games headed into homerun derby.  They officially took the lead in the AL East July 21 and at the end of the month, they only had a game and a half advantage. It wasn't until August that they really pulled away.  So who were the best Yankees then?

Well, A-Rod did hit .315 with 8 XBH, 12 RBI and 18 walks in August- a very good month.  But Derek Jeter hit .377 with 12 XBH, 17 RBI and a higher OPS than Alex.  Mark Teixeira was also very good...26 RBI, 32 runs scored (both best of the 3) and an OPS of .914.  Oh, by the way, C.C. Sabathia went 5-0 in his 6 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00.

Entering September, the Yanks just about had it locked up.  They had a 6.5 game lead with 32 remaining.  A-Rod had another good month (.337/5/23 with a .958 OPS) but so did Jeter (.450 OBP, 7 steals), so did Tex (.343/7/20 with a 1.081 OPS), and so did C.C. (4-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP below 1.00).

And just for fun- against the Red Sox this season, Teixeira's OPS was 104 points higher than A-Rod's (1.123 vs. 1.027), plus Sabathia went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and .172 BAA.

So while it's most definitely accurate to say the Yankees clicked once they got A-Rod back, I'm not sure if that makes him the team's 2009 MVP, given what the guys around him did, too.  My vote goes to Teixeira.

By "Miggy" Did He Mean "Mauer?"

Joe Mauer is the American League's 2009 MVP.  No argument, or real surprise there.  Dude was Senior Consistency this year, hitting basically .350 or better in every splits situation they measure and probably a few they don't (day game on a Wednesday, runner named Mike on first?).  Plus no player was on base more often, or slugged higher than he did and he plays the most demanding position on the field.

No, the real surprise during today's MVP voting was the fact that Miguel Cabrera received more first-place votes (1) than Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira combined.

I'm not saying Miggy didn't have a great year because he did, but let's break it down.  His batting average and on base percentage wasn't as good as Mauer's or Jeter's.  He didn't hit as many dingers, drive in as many, or slug as high as Teixiera, plus only 4 AL first baseman had more errors than his 7 (I know defense doesn't matter a ton in MVP voting, but my point is Tex had the better all-around season). 

And perhaps this is going through his numbers with too fine-toothed of a comb but...over the Tigers last 9 games of the season (where they blew a 2 game lead in the AL Central and ended up missing the postseason) he hit just .205 with 3 RBI.  These were critical games against the White Sox and Twins and his team went 3-6 in that stretch.  If you recall, right smack dab in the middle of all this was the domestic incident with his wife where, according to police, he was more than three times over the legal limit, "very uncooperative and highly intoxicated."  Nobody was charged with a crime and I wouldn't say this rough patch alone would automatically disqualify him from the award. I'm just saying Mauer, Jeter, and Tex kept their noses clean when it mattered most.

Apparently the one guy who gave Miggy a first place vote is a writer from Japan.  Curious, to say the least. 

It's also worth pointing out that this is the second time in a week that a Detroit Tiger has inexplicably received a first-place vote for a major postseason award despite the presence of several more qualified candidates.  Justin Verlander had a great season just like Miguel Cabrera did.  But just like Miggy wasn't better than Mauer, Jeter, or Tex, Verlander wasn't better than Greinke or King Felix.

Lincecum And My Concerns

First off, congrats to 25-year-old Tim Lincecum on winning his second Cy Young award in as many years yesterday.  It's tough to win one and even tougher to repeat.  The American League has only had 4 repeat winners (Pedro, Clemens two different times, Palmer, and McLain) and not counting Lincecum, it's only happened to 3 other NL pitchers (The Big Unit and Maddux 4 years in a row, and Sandy Koufax).

That said, here's what worries me about Lincecum.

He is 5'11, 170 pounds.  In the past two seasons, he has thrown more than 450 innings and because he's a big-time strikeout pitcher, he has averaged nearly 16 pitches per inning over the course of his short career.  Plus, unlike what was the case with Maddux or Clemens, there aren't too many Little League coaches out there who are teaching their kids to throw just like Timmy.

I looked it up and over the past two seasons in Major League baseball, only 5 starting pitchers have thrown at least 3,400 pitches in each season- Justin Verlander (7,459), C.C. Sabathia (7,400), Lincecum (7,121), A.J. Burnett (7,109), and Bronson Arroyo (6,840).  Out of the group, Timmy is the only guy who's not at least 6'4'' and the next skinniest guy on the list (Arroyo) outweighs him by 25 pounds (and Sabathia has him by a full person- 120 pounds).

Knock on wood, Lincecum has been a picture of health his first 3 seasons in the big leagues.  I just wonder how much longer his spindly build will continue to produce such eye-popping seasons and eye-popping pitch counts without any backlash.

I'm Back!

After a nearly one-year hiatus, I've decided to re-take-up (soooo not an actual English phrase) blogging. Sorry for the lack of posts in the last calendar year. I was...busy?
 
Okay...let's talk awards.  No beef so far with either of the Rookies of the Year (Coghlan and Bailey) or AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke.  It's a lock Albert Pujols wins NL MVP, so the only real drama seems to be NL Cy Young and AL MVP.


NL Cy Young 
In the senior circuit, it's essentially a race between Tim Lincecum, and whichever Cardinals starter you like better- Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright.  That said, here's a look at their numbers from this season in a way you probably haven't looked at them yet.  Based on the numbers they compiled throughout the course of the year, here is the average pitching line for each of our contenders in the 2009 season.



Lincecum- 7.04 IP, 5.25 H, 2.13 BB, 1.94 ER, 8.16 K's, 107.5 pitches

Carpenter- 6.88 IP, 5.57 H, 1.36 BB, 1.71 ER, 5.14 K's, 95.4 pitches

Wainwright- 6.85 IP, 6.35 H, 1.94 BB, 2.00 ER, 6.24 K's, 106.3 pitches



Looking at it this way, trendy stats like quality start percentage, WHIP, and batting average or OPS against take care of themselves.  


So what do we take away from these three average pitching lines?  Whose would you rather have?  Well, first-off we see Lincecum recorded an average of half an out more per start than his next closest competitor.  I like that a lot.  We also see that in terms of baserunners allowed per start (7.38 for Lincecum, 6.93 for Carpenter, 8.29 for Wainwright) Wainwright was the least impressive.  He didn't pitch as deep into games as the other two, took more pitches to get there than Carpenter and almost as many as Lincecum, plus he allowed the most runners by far.  To top it all off, Lincecum has the clear edge in strikeouts, which in some respects makes his higher walk rate less relevant.  And when you factor in Carpenter's 28 starts compared to 32 and 34 for Lincecum and Wainwright respectivley, it's a cakewalk as far as I'm concerned.  Lincecum was clearly the best of all NL pitchers in '09 with Carpenter second and Wainwright third.  The actual winner is announced today at 2PM.



AL MVP
Much tougher to quantify in my opinion because the main contenders- Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, and Mark Teixeira are different kinds of players.  Jeter is your prototypical leadoff hitter who handles the bat well, sees lots of pitches, gets on base, runs and gives his team a 1-0 lead.  Mauer is a classic number two or three hitter- high average, lots of balls in play, good line drive stroke and tough to strike out.  And Tex is about as good of a middle-of-the-order, thumper type as you could ask for- a threat to go yard every time up with tons of RBI.  And all three won Gold Gloves this year (although some pundits have questioned whether any of them deserved it).


As a starting point, here are their basic numbers from 2009:


Jeter- .334 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 107 R, 30 SB, .871 OPS
Mauer- .365 AVG, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 94 R, 4 SB, 1.031 OPS
Teixeira- .292 AVG, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 2 SB, .948 OPS


All very impressive.  


Digging deeper (because I am a firm believer that an MVP candidate finishes the season strong and has to get a lot of big hits throughout the course of the season) here are some other things to consider.  Jeter hit .351 after the break and had a .450 OBP in September, but hit just .259 in his 135 at-bats with men in scoring position.  Tex hit .313 after the break including a .343, 7 HR month of September.  He also hit .355 with 31 RBI in 62 at-bats with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.  And while he hit just .264 overall with men in scoring position, he also had an on-base percentage of more than .400 in that scenario.  So in those 174 at-bats, he had 46 hits and 39 walks- selective in that good Yankee lineup. 


Here's where Joe Mauer is no ordinary Joe, though.  He hit .358 in the second half, and had an OPS of at least .997 in each of the following situations: leading off an inning, nobody on, at least one baserunner on, runner(s) in scoring position, runner(s) in scoring position and 2 out, and the bases loaded.  To top it all off, in 113 at-bats in September and October while his team was in a dogfight to get into the postseason, he hit .354 with twice as many walks (24) as strikeouts (12).  And he did this while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond.


It's because of that fact that I give the nod to Mauer for MVP with Tex second and Jeter a close third.  AL MVP will be announced Monday.

First Team All Free Agent

Let's just say the stove is getting hot.

C - Ivan Rodriguez (36; 13 Gold Gloves; 2,605 hits)
1b - Mark Teixeira (28; 2 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Gloves; .919 career OPS; 30 HR/100 RBI 5 straight seasons)
2b - Orlando Hudson (30; 2 Gold Gloves; .346 career OBP)
SS - Rafael Furcal (31; 20+ steals 8 of 9 seasons; .352 career OBP)
3b - Joe Crede (30; 1 Silver Slugger, 125 career HR)
OF - Manny Ramirez (36; 3 Silver Sluggers; 1.004 career OPS; 527 career HR)
OF - Adam Dunn (29; .381 career OBP; 40 HR/100 BB 5 straight seasons;
OF - Bobby Abreu (34; 1 Silver Slugger; 1 Gold Glove; .405 career OBP; 95 R/100 RBI 6 straight seasons)
DH - Pat Burrell (32; .367 career OBP; 251 career HR; 85 RBI/95 BB 4 straight seasons)
SP - C.C. Sabathia (28; 1 Cy Young; 117 career wins; 36 wins/460 K's last 2 seasons)
SP - A.J. Burnett (31; .235 career BAA; 87 career wins; 18 W/231 K in '08)
SP - Ben Sheets (30; 86 wins; 1.20 career WHIP; 7.6 career K/9)
RP - Francisco Rodriguiez (26; 208 career saves; 40 saves 4 straight seasons; 2.35 career ERA)

I've Had My Phil

Well, the Phillies are the champs, and despite the concerns of some fans in the City of Brotherly Love, Game 5 in all its suspended glory was every bit as dramatic and climactic as it would have been had it been completed Monday night. The pile on the mound was just as enthusiastic and the champagne was just as cold (I assume), so relax, naysayers.

As for individual players, you have to acknowledge the performance of Brad Lidge. A guy whose career as a dominant 9th inning man seemed all-but-over a few seasons ago is now alive and well, following a 48-for-48 season concerting saves including the postseason. He's not a Dennis Eckersley kind of closer. He's going to put guys on base and he's going to give up runs, but he's also going to pitch out of trouble and make hitters (Eric Hinske) look like they've never seen a slider before. For him to bounce back and do so in such convincing fashion speaks volumes about his character.

Speaking of character, they didn't talk about it at all during the game, but did anyone else see B.J. Upton not bust it out of the box on his double-play grounder in the 8th? This was a huge play in the game. The Rays were down a run and J.C. Romero gave up a leadoff single. So Upton had a chance to, at the very least, put a lightning-quick guy (Carl Crawford) in scoring position with one out and the heart of the order due up. But instead, he hit a weak grounder to short and, in my estimation, was not at top speed when the throw hit Ryan Howard's glove. Had this been just about any other hitter, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt, but since it's Upton, a guy who was benched multiple times this season for lack of hustle, I have to wonder what in the hell was going through his head. For someone who is allegedly one of the fastest runners in baseball, he grounded into 13 double plays during the regular season, plus 4 more in 5 World Series games. That's more than noted sloths Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Kevin Milar, Jack Cust, and Jason Giambi. It's also way more than his younger brother Justin, who hit into just 3 twin-killings in 417 plate appearances and his teammate Akinori Iwamura, who grounded into only 2 double plays in more than 700 plate appearances (yet Iwamura stole 8 bases this year compared to Upton's 44). Bottom line, while it wasn't as blatant, he tanked it again and on the biggest stage posible. Mark my words, this guy is not going to end up being as big of a superstar as everybody thinks.

Pat Burrell also didn't run hard on his leadoff double in the 7th because he thought he'd hit a go-ahead homerun, but in his defense, you don't want to make the first out at third in that situation. Plus, although perhaps not fairly, it's forgiven because pinch runner Eric Bruntlett ended up scoring.

This was also the first time I got to see David Price pitch live and I must say- wow. Mid-to-high 90's fastball that he can throw arm side and extension side, and that slider. His only downfall in '09, I fear, will be the leash the Rays keep him on with regards to innings and pitches thrown, and to a lesser extent occasionally spotty control.

Given everything he's been through this year, I also thought it was a nice moment when Rocco Baldelli hit a game-tying homerun off Ryan Madson in the top of the 7th. You have to wonder if Baldelli will have a more memorable moment in a career that's certain to be cut short. It's too bad for him that this bit hit was rendered meaningless in the bottom half of the inning.

Finally, for all the talk about matchups, bullpens, and shortening an already short Game 5 Wednesday night, did anybody else notice that no reliever had a 1-2-3 inning? A total of 7 different guys pitched 6 half-innings and not one of them could retire each guy he faced. I guess when it's all on the line and the wind chill is 25, even the best of the best become human.

In closing- good for the Phillies and good for Philadelphia. They were my favorite to win it all at the start of October (although I had them beating the Sox) and for many of the reasons I've previously highlighted (big boppers, speedsters, best bullpen, hottest starting pitcher), they made me look like I know what I'm talking about. I'm sure '09 will afford many opportunities for me to re-insert my foot in my mouth.

This Is Big

Tonight's start will the biggest in Scott Kazmir's life. The Rays cannot fall behind 2-0 with the series shifting to Fenway and Jon Lester waiting in the wings. They simply can't. So tonight at the Trop, it all comes down to the little lefty and his big arm.

For the record, it's been almost 3 months since he pitched more than 6 innings and in two September starts against the Red Sox (one at home, one on the road), he went 0-1 with a ERA of 11.00.

And did I mention Josh Beckett is pitching for Boston tonight?

Yeah, this one's big.

300

That's how many posts I've completed on the ol' Baseblogg in its year and three quarters of existence. And it's also the topic of this particular post.

.300 is largely considered to be the gold standard among hitters. And while it's a ridiculous notion that a .299 hitter is somehow a much worse hitter than somebody who hit a point higher, there's just something about that first number being a 3 that resonates with fans, sportswriters, agents, and potential suitors.

This year's batting champs, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones, hit .328 and .364 respectively. Additionally, Mauer was one of 17 AL hitters to meet or exceed the magic number, while Jones was one of 14 in the senior circuit. When you add the 3 hitters who were traded mid-season but combined to hit .300 in all their at-bats this season (Manny Ramirez hit .332, Mark Teixeira hit .308, and Xavier Nady hit .305), that means just 34 of the qualifying 147 big league hitters this season were .300 hitters (apologies to Ryan Ludwick and his .299). 34 of 147 works out to 23.1%.

Just for fun, I looked at the last few years in the big leagues, and interestingly, the numbers are fairly consistent. Last year, 40 players hit .300 while 162 qualified (24.7%), the year before it was 38 out of 160 (23.8%), and in 2005 it was 33 of 148 (22.2%). 2004's rate was 22.3%, 2003's was 24.2%, and 2002's was 23.1%. In the few years after that, the ratio is a little closer to 30%, but I'm inclined to think something that rhymes with "beeroids" might have been afoot then.

So right now in the big leagues, less than a quarter of the hitters in the big leagues are considered "good hitters" if a "good hitter" to you is one who gets a hit at least 3 out of every 10 at bats- just something extra to ponder while you're watching the Sox and the Sox tonight.

My World Series

Now that we know the Mets and Twins will be spending their Octobers playing golf, it's time to break down the playoff matchups and make some predictions.

Just for a frame of reference, back when I made my preseason predictions in mid-February, I had the Red Sox winning the East, the Tigers taking the Central, and the Mariners winning the West with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. In the NL, I liked the Mets in the East, the Cubs in the Central, the D-Backs in the West, and the Dodgers to win the Wild Card. So, I was 1-8 in picking the exact winners, and 3-8 in picking playoff teams Ouch (although I did say I thought the Dodgers would beat the Red Sox, so that could still happen).

So now that the teams have been picked for me, my job shoudl be easier, right? We'll see. Anyway, in the Divisional Round I like the White Sox to beat the Rays, the Red Sox to beat the Angels, the Dodgers over the Cubs, and Phillies over the Brewers. The Chi Sox, frankly, showed me something the last few games. This is an experienced playoff team that knows how to win tight, do-or-die games. Plus, they can rake, and have a dynamite bullpen. Their lack of speed concerns me, though. Also, I guess I'm still not sold on the Rays pitching, at least not in the pressure-packed postseason. This series has the chance to go all 5, though. The only reason I'm picking Boston is because LA hasn't had to play a significant game in about 2 months. They've had a 10-game lead or bigger ever since. So in the rest vs. rust debate, I'm going with the latter. I also think Josh Beckett is going to show up big time. In the NL, I'm also going against the grain, picking against the Cubs. Don't get me wrong, I like Chicago and would love to see them finally win a World Series. I just don't trust Carlos Zambrano's emotions or Rich Harden's arm. Plus, LA is red-hot right now. And the Brewers, God love 'em, just don't have the pitching (starting or relief) to hang with the Phillies. They'll win Sabathia's start, but no other games.

In the League Championship round, I still like Boston in the battle of the Sox and I'm taking Philadelphia over the Dodgers. The Red Sox, for all their flaws (starting pitching questions, middle relief questions) are the superior team because unlike Chicago, they have the ability to manufacture runs- a must in the postseason. They have two dynamic MVP candidates and neither of them are named David Ortiz. And I don't see the Chi Sox doing particularly well at Fenway. And I like the Phillies because they are simply a more well-rounded club than the Dodgers. They have better starting pitching, more power, and better speed. Plus, Manny has to cool off at some point, right?

Finally, in the World Series, I'm going to go with the Phillies over the Red Sox. Few people seemed to notice that Brad Lidge was perfect in save chances this year and most people seem to have forgotten than Jimmy Rollins is a proud, reigning MVP. This team is dynamic offensively, comes at you with a number of looks on the mound, and plays its home games in a ballpark that really benefits guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell. Sorry Terry Francona, I think your World Series game winning streak is not only going to come to an end in 2008, but I think you're going to lose 4 times.

Oh, Sheet(s)

Fresh off last night's big win against the Cubs, Big Ben (not Roethlisberger) is going to try to take the mound for the Brewers in a game that could send Milwaukee to the postseason for the first time since 1982. Mr. Sheets' last start (ironically, also against Chicago) ended with an early exit thanks to a sore elbow. But after taking the last 9 days off, he says he's ready to go. We'll see.

The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly, who has also been named Chicago's NLDS Game 4 starter (if necessary). Last night, Chicago's NLDS Game 1 starter, Ryan Dempster, was pulled after just 5 innings and I wouldn't expect Lilly to throw for much more than 5 or 6 today. First pitch is at 3:35 this afternoon.

Sheets' comeback attempt is huge for several reasons. First, if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Wild Card race would be officially over. That's because the Mets didn't show up (again) last night and lost to the Marlins 6-1. New York has now lost 5 of its last 7, now sits 1 game back of the Wild Card and 2 back in the NL East with 2 to play (thanks to a win by the Phillies last night who are now a win, or a Mets loss away from clinching), and is on the verge of a second consecutive late-September meltdown, although this one is not nearly as cataclysmic as last year's.

The second reason a Sheets win and Mets loss would be huge for Milwaukee is that it would enable the Brew Crew to rest C.C. Sabathia until Game 1 of the NLDS against Philadelphia. Of course if Ben gets bounced, or the Mets win, it all comes down to Sunday.

Speaking of the Mets, in their desperate playoff push, it seems they've pushed Johan Santana up a day in the rotation, which makes sense because his start Sunday wouldn't mean a thing if his team loses Saturday. And faced with the alternatives of a not-quite-healthty John Maine and rookie Jonathon Niese, I'd say they're doing the right thing. Florida counters with ace Ricky Nolasco at 1:10 this afternoon, meaning the Brewers will likely know the outcome of that game when they take the field for theirs.

In the AL, the Twins and White Sox both lost, meaning Minnesota still has a half-game lead. No matter what happens today, nobody will be able to clinch because the Sox have played one fewer game than the Twins. The only way Ozzie Guillen's team won't play Monday's make-up against Detroit is if Chicago is a game and a half up, or a game and a half down in the Central on Sunday.

Unlike in the NL, today's pitching matchups are unchanged. It's Glen Perkins for the Twins against Gil Meche of the Royals, and Javy Vazquez for the Sox against rookie Zach Jackson for the Tribe.

Stay tuned...